Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference . Thanks to , , Pro Football Focus and the for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The Colts offense posted another 80+ Drive Success Rate with 26 first downs on the day. Considering they hit garbage time early, that actually understates how dominant the offense was.
I could break this down a hundred different ways, but the bottom line is simple — they scored 38 points. They were good.
TEAM TOTALS
PPD,
Adj PPD,
W-L,
Pyth Wins,
PPG,
Yds,
DSR,
Strt Fld,
yds/ply,
EPA/ply,
adj TSR,
1st/ply,
Pen 1st/ Yds,
3DC,
3rd ytg,
Expl Plys,
TO,
TOP%
On a points-per-drive basis, the Colts ranked just 7th, but they were 1st in yards per play, 3rd in EPA per play, and 3rd in play conversion rate. That reflects the impact of the final two garbage-time drives, which diluted their point total much more than the other metrics.
On the year, the Colts remain 1st in points per drive — both on a raw basis and after adjusting for opponent strength. Simply put, the Colts have the best offense in the NFL — and it’s not particularly close
PASS TOTALS
EPA/db,
Adj EPA/d,
PSR,
Cmp,
Att,
Yds,
TD,
Int,
Sck,
Sck Y,
Sck Fum,
Scrm,
Scrm Yds,
Scrm TD,
Scrm Fum,
1st/db,
ny/d,
cmp %,
aDOT,
CPOE,
Air Yd,
YAC,
20+ #/Yd
Jones had a solid top-10 performance, but these stats include Riley Leonard’s two attempts, which drag the team passing numbers just outside the top 10 in EPA efficiency and success rate. However, the key drivers — pass play conversion rate and yards per pass play — both ranked 8th on the week.
On the season, I have the Colts’ passing attack ranked 3rd after adjusting for opponent.
RUSH TOTALS
wgt RSR,
adj RSR,
YDS,
CAR,
TD,
1st,
Fum Lost,
RSR,
1st/c,
YPC,
10+ #/Yd,
3rd,
EPA/c,
Thanks to J.T.’s 80-yard run, the Colts’ 9.5 yards per carry ranked #1 on the week. However, in terms of success rate, that 80-yarder counts as just a single successful play. So, by rush success rate, the Colts rank #2 — and after adjusting for situation, they end up in the #3 spot.
On the year, I have the Colts as the #1 rushing team by a large margin. The drop-off to #2 is pretty dramatic. Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the league and is on track to become this year’s MVP.
CONCLUSION
Tennessee doesn’t have a good defense, so anything short of a beatdown would’ve been disappointing and the Colts’ offense did not disappoint. Indy was strong through the air and dominant on the ground, which pretty much reflects what they have done all season.
It’s good to be the king.
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