The Minnesota Vikings return home to the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time in nearly a month to face a dangerous and desperate Philadelphia Eagles team on Sunday.
Let’s dive into it.
Vikings vs Eagles: The History
The Viking-Eagles rivalry has been defined by its competitive balance. The teams have met 27 times in the regular season since 1962, with the Vikings holding a 15-12 edge. When you include the playoffs, that flips to a 16-15 Eagles advantage. Let’s not discuss the last playoff game.
More recently, the Eagles have led 6-4 over the last 10 regular-season games, including two in a row in Philly. The last time the Vikings hosted the Eagles at home during the 2019 season, it was a reasonably comfortable 38-20 win for the good guys. Oh, the quarterback for the Eagles that day? Carson Wentz.
Scouting the Eagles
At 4-2 and sitting atop the NFC East, things “should” be all sunshine and rainbows for the defending Super Bowl champs, but there are some issues. Similar to last year’s 4-2 start, there are rumors of some internal strife, unhappiness, and general drama. In the end, it meant absolutely nothing. Just noise. They went on to win 10 of their final 11 regular-season games and a Super Bowl thrashing of the mighty Kansas City Chiefs.
If I had to guess, this year it will mean…absolutely nothing. The Broncos boast arguably the best defense in the NFL; they’re likely heading back to the playoffs. No shame there, even if Sean Payton is (still) the worst. The loss to the Giants was bad, but I’d argue it was an aberration. Wins against the Chiefs, Rams, and Buccaneers this season are more than enough to support that assertion. As we can attest, divisional games (especially on the road) can be weird and often where conventional wisdom goes missing. See our history at Soldier Field, for example.
That is not to say there aren’t concerns. On offense, their brilliant red zone efficiency (#1 touchdown conversion rate in the NFL) has them ranked 15th in points per game (23.7), but it also masks some deeper issues. They’re 30th in total yards per game (274.5), 29th in passing (178.7), 25th in rushing (95.3), and 28th in yards per carry (3.5). Their offensive line has also allowed 18 sacks this year. I must be honest, these numbers shocked me. Now, they have played some very stingy defenses so far, but even so, I’d have expected those numbers to be at least…average…after six weeks.
Defensively, things are a bit rosier. As with the offense, some fine red zone work (eighth in defensive touchdown rate allowed) has covered up some areas for improvement. The Eagles are 17th in points allowed per game (23.8) but 21st in total yards (342.8). This includes being 12th in against the pass (208.5), but just 26th against the run (134.3). They do rank in the top ten in EPA per-pass play allowed (-0.12), but it’s not because they’re necessarily getting to the quarterback (just nine sacks in six games). It certainly won’t help that Za’Darius Smith abruptly announced his retirement this week, either.
McCarthy or Wentz? Regardless, There Should Be Opportunities
If J.J. McCarthy is healthy enough to start, he must start. Period. No equivocating whatsoever. That was the plan all offseason, and it must be the plan now. If he isn’t, then we jump headfirst into the Carson Wentz revenge game storyline. From everything I’ve read (as of this writing), it looks like the latter will be the case. Okay then. Let’s get some payback, Carson!
A quick follow-up – i.e., McCarthy. The problem with social media is that it’s really impossible to decipher whether particular perspectives reside at the fringes of opinion, or if they’re more mainstream in scope – ditto with unscientific snap polls on websites or prominent Vikings-related accounts. I believe the vast, vast, vast majority of fans are of the opposing viewpoint, but I’ve already seen enough online comments declaring McCarthy a bust to at least acknowledge it. I get the pessimism; I understand the doomerism. Given our history, it’s second nature. But…come on now. Perspective and patience are your friends. Don’t shut them out. Say it together with me: “J.J. McCarthy will be fine.”
I realize you can’t keep your head perpetually in the sand, either. If McCarthy starts and struggles over several weeks, then obviously you need to revisit the issue. Maybe more development is required. But you can’t pull the rug out from under him, given what little we know. Indeed, watching the Atlanta Falcons abuse Josh Allen and stifle the Bills’ offense on Monday night hammered home how, in hindsight, the Week 2 disaster was probably unavoidable. KOC was clearly finding his sea legs amid last season’s catastrophic finish, with (essentially) a rookie quarterback in his second NFL start, without his all-world left tackle, with two other starting lineman injured during the game, sans the best #2 wide receiver in the NFL, on a severely sprained ankle nearly the entire second half, and against what appears to be an elite Falcons defense. Other than that, things lined up nicely.
I’m 100% convinced J.J. McCarthy is our QBOTF. Trust KOC. Trust the process.
Back to the issue at hand…
Whoever is under center on Sunday, there should be opportunities to put some points on the board. One key will be to play a clean game in terms of penalties and unforced errors. Given the record to date, that won’t be easy. We rank 12th in the NFL with 44 penalties. Everyone ahead of us has played one more game. And while the two lost fumbles didn’t end up costing us against the Browns’ UFL offense, that won’t fly against Nick Sirianni’s bunch.
If Jordan Mason and Zavier Scott can keep us ahead of the chains more often than not against what appears to be a susceptible Eagles run defense, KOC should be able to improve on that putrid, 30th-ranked third-down conversion rate (31%). With Addison back, a (somewhat) healthier offensive line, and an opposing pass rush that won’t remind anyone of the 1985 Bears, one hopes that the passing attack can build on the positive things we saw against a superior Browns defense.
I was thrilled at the creativity KOC pulled out of his bag of tricks last week. He’ll need it again, as Vic Fangio is a pro’s pro, who’ll have the Eagles defense ready to go. Perhaps out of necessity, Fangio is apparently blitzing more than in years past but still sits an average 15th in terms of blitzes per drop-back (23.7%). Nonetheless, you’d think he’d want to test whatever configuration of our offensive line is out there on Sunday. We sit at an abysmal 31st in sack percentage (12.6%) and have given up 21 total sacks (30th).
The good news? If a knucklehead like me thinks this, then it’s definitely crossed the mind of KOC and company. You’d think they’d prepare accordingly.
Has Flores Fixed the Run Defense?
I don’t think it’s a secret that we’ve struggled against the run this year. We currently sit 24th in rush yards allowed per game (132.2) while giving up 4.5 yards per rush. Logic dictates the key to unlocking an Eagles victory would be an early, heavy dose of Saquon Barkley, which, in turn, would open up opportunities for Jalen Hurts and the passing game.
The obvious answer is the correct one. No single factor will determine the outcome of this game more than our ability to contain Barkley. Forcing Hurts to navigate Flores’s blitz and coverage wizardry on known passing situations, amid a raucous home crowd, will be instrumental to pulling the upset. If we’re compelled to commit extra resources in the box, then first and second downs become open season for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. That’s not where we want to be. To a lesser but significant extent, preventing Hurts from manufacturing first downs on the ground when coverage holds will also be critical.
With all due (if reluctant) respect to the Lions, this will prove the toughest offense to stop all season. Blake Cashman’s return will help, but it’s a good thing Flores had an extra week to plan for this. He’ll need it.
Prediction
In forecasting the 2025 season back in May, I had this to say regarding Week 7:
Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles: Huge step up in class after the bye. The Eagles lost some starters and key depth pieces in free agency, so a slight regression wouldn’t be surprising. If this were in Philly, I’d say nah, but I’m oddly confident here. Both teams will be well-rested. It will be a dog fight, but we come out on top thanks to late-game heroics from the biggest sex symbol since early-90s Brad Pitt: Will Reichard. FG late wins it for the good guys.
Minnesota Vikings: 27
Philadelphia Eagles: 26
Take the “oddly confident” aspect and shred it into a thousand pieces. I’m not. As stated, I’m not buying stock in this (alleged) Eagles slump – at all. This team is loaded. They’re cornered and desperate. When teams with Super Bowl champion pedigrees are put in this situation, they historically respond. That’s the DNA that makes them, ya know, champions in the first place.
Two primary outcomes are at the forefront of my mind for this one: a close Vikings victory or a relatively easy Eagles win.
On the one hand, we’re due for this talented offense to click on all cylinders finally. With seemingly endless injuries, changing quarterbacks, and a critical suspension, the stars haven’t been close to aligning for such a scenario. If it is Wentz (as expected), he’s been here long enough now where a certain degree of comfort has set in – with KOC, the scheme, chemistry with the receivers, etc. And given this history, oh boy, will he be motivated for this one. I’d be surprised if Brian O’Neill suits up, but we’re slowly but surely getting a bit healthier up front with Donovan Jackson’s expected return. On defense, Flores is obviously capable of holding the Eagles offense down enough to eke out a close victory.
On the other hand, the Eagles are the Eagles. It would suck, but let’s be honest, if they came in here and put a beatdown on us, it wouldn’t be shocking. When this team is clicking, they’re practically unbeatable. As mentioned, they’ve already beaten the Rams at home, in addition to the Chiefs and Buccaneers on the road. Where do the Vikings sign up for such “chaos”?
KOC was uncharacteristically testy in his presser this week, and it’s understandable. The injuries and quarterback drama have to be taking their toll. And the prospect of facing the Eagles, Chargers, and Lions in the span of two weeks can’t be helping either. The NFC is also shaping up to be super competitive this year, with only four teams having a losing record after six weeks. Every game is critical, but especially those in conference. This one could have tremendous implications.
I choose Option A. I choose optimism. I choose our hero, Will Reichard, to get his revenge for the camera wire-gate with a last-second field goal to win it.
Vikings: 31
Eagles: 30
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