I’ve watched the most recent games of the opponents, focusing on specific areas: touchdowns, deep passes, turnovers, sacks, and explosive runs. Think of it less as a prediction piece and more as a scouting report. Each week, I’ll publish two articles on the opponent’s offense and defense to give a picture of what the Eagles will be up against.
Defense
Kevin O’Connell’s offense is one of the better-designed units in football. Even with the injuries, inconsistency at quarterback, and an offensive line that’s been nothing short of a disaster, it’s clear on film that this is still a pretty good offense. He loves to use motions to manipulate leverage, switch releases to open throwing lanes, and play-action that’s designed to isolate defensive backs. However, the offense has a very obvious weakness, which we will get into.
Touchdowns
When the Vikings do finish drives, it’s often because of Kevin O’Connell’s play design. Their red-zone efficiency (10th in the league) is one of the few metrics that still looks healthy. They use condensed splits, motion, and play-action to create misdirection and space near the goal line. And they have this guy called Justin Jefferson, who’s pretty good…
The Vikings’ run game isn’t explosive, but it’s physical in the red zone. It’s built on staying ahead of the sticks, being vertical, using double-teams, and is designed to punish soft fronts. Losing Aaron Jones hurt, but Jordan Mason has stepped in as a physical downhill runner who finishes runs and fights through contact. The Eagles struggled with a physical run game last week, so they will get a chance to bounce back this week against another physical back.
Once they fall behind the sticks, the playbook shrinks due to a massive issue at the offensive line, which we will get to! It’s tough to predict who will start at quarterback; both of them have shown the ability to create outside of structure, partly due to a weak offensive line. We will get into the quarterbacks more, below.
Explosive Passes
You can see why O’Connell is so highly regarded. The film is full of small details that open up space. The way he uses switch releases and late motion to help Justin Jefferson shake brackets, or how he schemes Jefferson onto safeties through deep crossers and posts. It’s clear on film that when they get time, the passing game is excellent. They love to hit Jefferson on deep overs, isolate him outside against single coverage, and use Jordan Addison as a secondary vertical threat. The issue isn’t design, it’s the ability to protect.
Both Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy can make every throw, but their rhythm is different. Wentz still has flashes of his old gunslinger self, firing deep balls into tight windows, while McCarthy is a little more unpredictable.
If you give either QB time, the deep passing game will be dangerous because of Jefferson and the scheme. Personally, from watching both of them, I think I would rather face McCarthy than Wentz. Neither option is terrifying from an Eagles perspective, but Wentz is playing better than McCarthy on film this season.
Sacks
This is the single biggest problem with the Vikings’ offense. They’ve given up 21 sacks already and have the worst sack rate in the league (12.6%). It’s not just the offensive tackles (though Justin Skule in particular has been a major weak link), it’s the whole unit that has struggled.
Communication is poor. You can see them repeatedly blow stunt pickups, and late blitzers catch them by surprise constantly. The left tackle has struggled with speed rushers, and the interior lacks cohesion after rotating through different linemen due to injuries.
As we all know, sacks are also a quarterback statistic. Neither quarterback helps out the offensive line. McCarthy holds the ball for too long as he takes too long to process things. Wentz is a little different. He gets the ball out quicker, but he still doesn’t diagnose pressure well. He’s still fearless, and his “hang tough” mentality gets him hit over and over again. Sack-fumbles have been a recurring issue.
The Eagles have to take advantage here. This game is tailor-made for stunts, simulated pressures, and delayed blitzes from the second level. The Vikings’ communication can’t handle complexity. I expect the Eagles to get after the quarterback this week. If the Eagles’ front doesn’t dominate this matchup, that’s going to be a huge issue. This could be a massive Jalen Carter game. I’m hopeful!
Turnovers
This offense lives on the edge. Wentz is still Wentz. He’s capable of a highlight-reel touchdown followed immediately by a disastrous throw. His confidence in Jefferson’s ability to win one-on-ones leads to high-risk throws. While that aggression creates big plays, it also gives defenses chances to make momentum-swinging plays.
McCarthy, on the other hand, looks overwhelmed at times. He’s a rookie who holds the ball too long, floats passes, and struggles to throw with anticipation. He has higher long-term upside but would give the Eagles far more turnover chances.
As I said earlier, I’d rather face McCarthy. He’s late too often and doesn’t handle pressure well. If the Vikings choose to throw him in too early against a Fangio defense full of disguised coverages, it could get ugly. I assumed this overthrow was classic Wentz, but it was McCarthy!
Expect at least one turnover-worthy play from whichever QB starts.
Explosive Runs
The Vikings’ run game isn’t explosive. Minnesota’s line isn’t dominant, but it’s cohesive enough to double and climb. If the Eagles lose physicality at the point of attack, Mason can churn out four and five yard gains that keep the offense alive. I would be disappointed if Mason had long runs, though, and it would be a real concern.
Without Aaron Jones, they lack a home-run threat, and the offensive line’s injuries make it hard to get movement consistently. This is more grind-it-out than game-breaking.
Final Thoughts
This is a really well-schemed offense, but its offensive line traps it. If the Vikings can protect, they’ll move the ball. O’Connell will scheme Jefferson open against a banged-up Eagles’ secondary, and he could have a huge game. For the Eagles, this game is all about dominance up front. Win with the front four, create third and longs, and force O’Connell out of his rhythm. If the Eagles apply consistent pressure, they should create turnovers, especially if McCarthy starts.
This is one of those games where, schematically, I think most things work in the Eagles’ favour, but they have Justin Jefferson. Great players can turn games. I hope this isn’t one of those games.
Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here. If you would like to support me further, please check out my Patreon here!
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