While both teams got off to slow starts and are at the bottom of the AFC West standings entering Week 7, the division title is still within reach for the Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (3-3). With the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers tied for first place at 4-2, the Raiders are only two games back, and the Chiefs trail by just a game.
That heightens the stakes for the next chapter in one of the NFL’s longest rivalries, as a loss would be a significant hit to either club’s hopes of taking home the AFC West crown this year. So, if the Raiders are going to pull off an upset as significant underdogs on the road, they’re likely going to need to win the three key matchups below.
Geno Smith vs. Steve Spagnuolo
It’s no secret that Smith has been struggling this season. He’s already thrown a league-leading 10 interceptions and has had a pick in five out of six games. A big reason for that is the veteran quarterback has been staring down receivers and struggling to adjust when the defense changes the picture on him post-snap.
Meanwhile, Spagnuolo has a reputation for confusing quarterbacks by rotating coverages and giving them exotic looks. Considering that’s one of Smith’s biggest weaknesses, expect the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator to dial up some confusing coverages early and often on Sunday.
Building on that, Smith has had issues against blitzes this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he has the third-highest “turnover-worthy play” rate (5.7 percent) and the second-lowest passing grade (42.5) among passers with at least 54 dropbacks. Kansas City has the seventh-highest blitz rate (31.0 percent) so far this season, per Sūmer Sports. So, this is another area that Spagnuolo will likely look to test.
The good news for Las Vegas is that Smith does have some familiarity going against Spagnuolo. They spent the 2017 campaign together with the New York Giants, where the former was a backup quarterback and the latter was the defensive coordinator before ending the year as the interim head coach. Granted, that was eight years ago, but it could help that Smith spent an entire season going against Spagnuolo’s defense in practice.
Michael Mayer vs. Nick Bolton
Bolton has developed a reputation as a good run defender, but he does have issues in coverage. For example, the linebacker’s 39.9 PFF coverage grade ranks tied for 65th out of 76 qualifiers (minimum 53 coverage snaps) at the position, and he has given up the second-most receiving yards (305).
The Detroit Lions targeted the fifth-year pro 10 times last week, completing nine passes for 112 yards and a touchdown. Lions tight end Sam LaPorta had the most success against Bolton, catching three of three targets for 46 yards and two first downs. Additionally, Los Angeles Chargers tight end Tyler Conklin had one target that resulted in a 33-yard catch with the linebacker in coverage during the season opener, per PFF.
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Unfortunately, the Raiders likely won’t have Brock Bowers for this game since head coach Pete Carroll indicated the team will hold Bowers out until after next week’s bye. However, Mayer is coming off an impressive outing where he logged five catches, 50 yards and a touchdown. He was also an effective chain-mover in the season opener, giving Smith a tight end who can potentially exploit Bolton on Sunday even if Bowers doesn’t suit up.
Jeremy Chinn vs. Travis Kelce
This game has a notable tight end matchup on the other side of the ball, too.
While wide receiver Rashee Rice will make his season debut this week, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has his highest average depth of target (8.4 yards) since 2020, the Chiefs’ passing game still runs through Kelce. The 36-year-old is currently the team’s leading receiver with 321 yards and has the highest success rate (73.0 percent) of Kansas City’s pass catchers with more than one target, per Pro Football Reference.
Also, Kelce has been a thorn in the Raiders’ side for over a decade. According to StatMuse, he’s logged 128 catches for 1,582 yards and 12 touchdowns in 22 contests against the Silver and Black, which comes out to per-game averages of just under six catches, 72 yards and a touchdown every other matchup. However, this is the type of one-on-one battle Chinn was brought in for.
The free agent signing has the size (6’3” and 220 pounds) and athleticism to be effective guarding tight ends. Through six games this season, PFF has him on the hook for 10 catches for 101 yards with six grabs and 50 yards coming in two contests, against the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts. Granted, those numbers aren’t exclusive to tight ends, but Chinn clearly hasn’t been a significant liability in coverage so far this season.
In other words, Las Vegas will need its strong safety to bring his A-game to keep Kansas City’s offense in check.
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