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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced—laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.

Above is a chart courtesy of Timo Riske outlining team strengths, showing the Buccaneers with a slight overall edge from a fundamentals perspective, largely due to a more efficient offense. While the teams are relatively even elsewhere, quarterback Brock Purdy (out) represents a clear upgrade over his backup, a hobbled Mac Jones (questionable), which helps explain how the market has arrived at the current pricing for this matchup.

Even from a fundamentals standpoint, there’s reason to lean toward the Buccaneers. According to Inpredict — a model that uses totals and lookahead markets to assess team strength — the 49ers rank as the ninth-best defense in the NFL. But that doesn’t reflect recent form. Without Nick Bosa and his 86.0 PFF grade, the unit has struggled. The ripple effect is clear: Bryce Huff, now facing more double teams, has seen his production dip, as well. As a result, San Francisco is posting its lowest quick-pressure rates of the season and has allowed 0.20 and 0.31 EPA per play in recent weeks. This is no longer a top-tier defense because of the injuries.

One of the biggest differences in Baker Mayfield’s game this year compared to last season has been his increased willingness to throw deep.

Baker Mayfield ranks behind only Jalen Hurts and the Giants quarterbacks in deep-ball rate, and he’s been among the most efficient passers on those throws.

Now, he faces a 49ers defense that leans heavily on single-high coverage and ranks in the bottom seven in separation allowed. Opponents are attacking San Francisco with the seventh-highest average depth of target, and with the 49ers struggling to generate quick pressure without Nick Bosa, there’s reason to believe their downfield production could look even worse as plays are allowed to develop.

The goal, of course, isn’t just to backfill with data, but to project forward. And Baker, with time, should be able to carve up this secondary.

On the other side, while Mac Jones has been serviceable, he has yet to face a defense capable of consistently generating disruption or pressure, something Tampa Bay may now be able to do.

Only Trevor Lawrence has faced a lower rate of pressure disruptions than Mac Jones this season. That’s likely to change against a blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense, which is effectively tied for first with a 28% pressure disruption rate.

Just consider the unit values on the X-axis — moving from a 14% pressure rate to 22–24% could translate into a 2-3 point swing in this game.

Compounding the issue is Tampa Bay’s dominance against the run. The Bucs lead the NFL in both rush EPA allowed and success rate allowed, which should force the 49ers into obvious passing situations —making disruption pressure even more likely.

With Mac Jones dealing with injuries, this is a sneaky tough matchup that could get out of hand quickly and play right into Tampa Bay’s strengths.