The last time these two met—also on a national stage—it was a coming-of-age moment for Detroit. In the 2023 NFL kickoff game, the Chiefs were celebrating their second Super Bowl title in four seasons, while the Lions were chasing only their fourth postseason berth in 23 years. Detroit stamped its authority with a 21-20 victory thanks to touchdowns from Amon-Ra St. Brown, rookie Brian Branch, and newly-signed David Montgomery.
Though only 42 games have passed, the Lions have surged to rare heights. Both teams are now considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders, ranking among the top five in odds on most sportsbooks—even with the Chiefs sitting at 2-3. Kansas City returns home with a chip on its shoulder after a last-minute loss and with one of the healthiest rosters in football.
Detroit will aim to take down Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, with these five key statistical matchups likely to shape the primetime contest.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Chucking it deep
The Lions’ secondary is in survival mode. Top cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold are already ruled out, and rookie Ennis Rakestraw—who was sidelined before the season began—remains shelved for the year. Now Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, and Avonte Maddox all missed Friday’s practice and are questionable for Sunday. Cluster injuries at one position are among the toughest challenges an NFL team can face—a lesson Detroit learned at defensive line and linebacker last season. This week, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard may have to get creative against a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time MVP in Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes will test the depth. Not many quarterbacks have been more aggressive pushing the ball vertically—he ranks second in the NFL with 26 deep attempts (20+ air yards). The results have been inconsistent (26.9% completion rate, 27th), but the Lions must be ready for roughly five potentially game-altering shots downfield.
When Mahomes connects, it’s punishing. He’s completed seven deep passes, averaging 38.9 yards per completion (3rd) and 34.8 air yards per attempt (2nd). His 3.63-second time to throw on these plays (9th longest) underscores how effectively he extends pockets to launch deep strikes.
His favorite deep target has been Tyquan Thornton, the blazing free-agent addition. Thornton’s caught five of 14 deep targets for 186 yards (37.2 per catch) and a touchdown. The 2022 second-rounder is built for the role—he ran a 4.28-second 40, recorded nearly an 11-foot broad jump, and boasts a 6-foot-5+ wingspan that helps him haul in off-platform rainbows.
The rest of Mahomes’ deep completions have gone to Marquise Brown (49 yards) and Xavier Worthy (37 yards)—both speedster who clocked sub-4.3 40-yard dashes. Detroit’s patchwork secondary will be tasked with keeping up with a Kansas City track team, despite the lack of cohesion and reps together that typically hold a defense steady.
Mahomes on the move
Since rookie Xavier Worthy’s Week 3 return, the Chiefs’ offense has found a spark—averaging 32.5 points per game over the last two weeks—and has tapped into new avenues of production, including the deep ball and, more than ever before, Mahomes’ legs.
Mahomes has turned his legs into a real weapon this season, taking off more often—and with more purpose—than ever before. He’s logged 190 rushing yards on 28 carries, the third-most among quarterbacks through five weeks, with three rushing touchdowns. His 6.8 yards per carry would be a career high, and he’s currently pacing for 95 carries, 646 yards, and 10 touchdowns—all of which would set new personal bests.
Further rushing metrics highlight how effectively he’s picking his spots (QB rank in parentheses):
- 50.0% of rushes result in a first down (3rd)
- 71.4% third-down conversion rate
- 5.39 yards before contact/attempt (3rd)
- 96 second-half rushing yards (4th)
- 50 red-zone rushing yards (1st)
Mahomes isn’t scrambling out of panic—he’s doing it with intent, often in clutch moments that keep drives alive and break defenses’ backs.
The Lions have already passed key tests against mobile quarterbacks this season, keeping Caleb Williams and Lamar Jackson largely contained. Jake Browning’s 13-yard scramble last week actually tied the longest run by a quarterback they’ve allowed all year. Detroit’s defensive front has maintained disciplined gap integrity, and the linebackers have been lights-out in every aspect including in contain—a formula that should help them keep Mahomes’ legs in check. Still, when he extends plays and buys time in the pocket, that’s when the real stress test begins.
Where in the World Is Stone Cold Chris Jones?
With the Lions hemorrhaging defensive backs, the real key—as it was in last year’s Week 14 Thursday night win over Green Bay—might be for the offense to simply outscore Kansas City. I’ll detail later why this version of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense could be a poor matchup against Detroit, but first, it’s worth isolating the one area where the Lions’ offense could be vulnerable.
Chiefs All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is off to a slower start in his 10th season. He’s logged seven tackles, one sack, and six quarterback hits (t-23rd). However, his pressure rate of 12.9%—a career low (his previous low was 13.2% in 2022)—ranks 65th in the NFL, and his pass-rush win rate of 12.9% ranks 82nd, signaling a dip in overall pass-rush effectiveness so far this season.
Jones has still found success in one specific deployment—when he lines up over the left tackle as a right defensive end. From that spot, he’s a nightmare. Jones owns a 20.6% pressure rate, eighth-best in the NFL among players with at least 20 pass-rush snaps from that alignment. For comparison, Aidan Hutchinson ranks 21st at 16.3%. In just 34 snaps from right defensive end, Jones has produced seven pressures (four QB hits, three hurries).
Everywhere else? Not nearly as impactful—only 13 pressures (one sack, two hits, 11 hurries) and a 9.8% pressure rate on 122 pass-rush snaps when lined up anywhere else.
That’s a staggering split and bad news for the Lions, who may be without Taylor Decker and Giovanni Manu, both of whom missed Friday’s practice. If neither can go, it could leave the recently healthy Dan Skipper or Devin Cochran—an early September practice-squad addition—as the biggest obstacle between Jones and Jared Goff. It’s a matchup that offensive coordinator John Morton will have to account for constantly, whether through protections, chip help, or getting the ball out fast when Jones is aligned outside.
Child’s play action
Chris Jones could be the biggest impediment to the Lions’ offensive success on Sunday, but there are areas where Detroit could exploit the Chiefs’ defense.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose defensive mastery has influenced Kelvin Sheppard, has struggled to defend the pass this season, particularly against play-action, posting arguably the worst marks in the league despite facing only 34 dropbacks from play action (3rd fewest).
- 78.8% completion percentage (30th)
- 12.5 yards/attempt (32nd)
- 128.7 passer rating (29th)
- 70.6% offensive success rate (31st)
- -0.60 EPA/dropback (32nd)
- 35.3% explosive play rate (32nd)
- 29.4% pressure rate (24th)
It’s well documented that play action, and intermediate passing, have long been the foundation of Jared Goff and the Lions’ dangerous passing attack, and the Chiefs’ struggles make this matchup even more favorable. Adding to their woes, Kansas City allows 8.3 yards after catch per reception, by far the worst mark in the NFL—a huge contrast to the Lions defense’s league-leading 3.3 YAC allowed per reception.
The Lions should be able to establish a rhythm by leveraging timely play-action passes. This will help neutralize the Chiefs’ pass rush, give Goff high-percentage passing windows, and allow playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta to generate outstanding catch and run opportunities.
Rudderless run defense
If play-action has been the Chiefs’ biggest headache this season, their run defense hasn’t been far behind—a trend that should have Lions fans, players, and coaches salivating.
While no rusher has topped 100 yards against Kansas City yet, opponents have consistently found ways to grind out yards on the ground.
- 4.8 yards/rush (t-26th)
- 44.9% offensive success rate (28th)
- -0.06 EPA/designed rush (29th)
- 7.8% explosive play rate (21st)
- 1.68 yards before contact (24th)
- 3.10 yards after contact (20th)
If the Lions can maintain or exceed their season-average 45% rushing success rate, or approach last year’s 50% mark, the Chiefs’ front will struggle to keep Detroit off the field. Regardless of who lines up at left tackle, this should be a game where the offensive line dictates the trenches, creating lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Kansas City’s defensive line—including Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, rookie Ashton Gillotte, Derrick Nandi, Jerry Tillery, Mike Danna, and rookie Omarr Norman-Lott—has had its struggles containing the run, leaving opportunities for Detroit to exploit.
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