I’ve watched the most recent games of the opponents, focusing on specific areas: touchdowns, deep passes, turnovers, sacks, and explosive runs. Think of it less as a prediction piece and more as a scouting report. Each week, I’ll publish two articles on the opponent’s offense and defense to give a picture of what the Eagles will be up against. (Previously: Previewing the Giants’ offense)
Giants Defense
The Giants’ defense is a fascinating contradiction. They have elite individual talent up front, players like Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Abdul Carter, and Dexter Lawrence, but you wouldn’t know it from the box score. Schematic predictability, poor tackling, and a bad secondary have turned a talented unit into an inconsistent one. They currently sit 26th in EPA per play allowed, despite ranking in the top 10 in pressure rate. Weird.
Touchdowns Allowed
The Giants have given up some ugly touchdowns. They have a bit of a weird issue against outside runs, which we will get to in more detail later, but it has cost them…
They play a ton of cover 1 man coverage without disguise and have given up a lot of big plays. They have a lot of issues in the secondary. This style leaves them vulnerable to rubs, misdirection, and pick plays near the goal line. The corners are frequently isolated, and tackling at the second level remains a real issue. They struggle a lot against good receivers… I think we have a few of them?!
Deontay Banks (2) has lost confidence and discipline and was getting burned down the field before he was benched for Cor’Dale Flott, who hasn’t looked much better. The Eagles’ offense could easily bounce back this week, against a really poor secondary. If the Eagles can’t pass the ball this week, we might be in panic mode.
The secondary doesn’t just cost them when it comes to giving up touchdowns in the air, either. They are a poor tackling unit, especially from the safety position. Tyler Nubin has struggled big time, and has been responsible for a few huge plays against them.
Explosive Passes Allowed
This is the most glaring weakness on film. They give up too many explosive plays for a defense with this much talent. They’ve already given up nine completions of 20+ yards (25th in the league), and it’s not because of a lack of pass rush. The coverage is the problem. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen has done a poor job of disguising looks. Opposing quarterbacks know exactly what they’re getting pre-snap far too often.
As stated above, the secondary has been really poor too. Andru Phillips is the most-targeted nickel corner in the NFL (targeted on 23.8% of snaps) and has surrendered over 100 more yards from the slot than any other DB in football. Deontay Banks has been benched for Cor’Dale Flott, who hasn’t looked any better.
The combination of predictable scheme and error-prone secondary play has made the Giants exceptionally vulnerable to deep crossers and vertical shots outside the numbers. The backside defenders rarely gain depth or pass off routes effectively, leaving the middle of the field open. If the Giants really do stick with heavy Cover 1 on Thursday night, it could be a long evening for them. The Eagles have shredded Cover 1 for years. Expect A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to see a heavy target share when isolated on Phillips, and a lot of deep overs and vertical concepts that stress single-high safeties.
Turnovers Created
They’ve managed just three interceptions (12th) and one forced fumble (28th) all year — numbers that don’t match their pass-rush activity. When they have forced mistakes, it has been down to the pass rush, which is super talented.
The overall lack of ball production is a major reason this defense hasn’t lived up to its potential. For all the splash plays up front, the Giants rarely create big plays on defense.
Sacks
On paper, the Giants have 8 sacks (19th), but they’re 10th in the NFL in pressure rate, with one of the most talented fronts in football. When you turn up the film, it’s pretty insane how good they are upfront. They have some elite talented.
Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Abdul Carter, and Dexter Lawrence generate constant havoc. Against the Chargers, they pressured Justin Herbert on 47% of his dropbacks, collapsing the pocket frequently. The Chargers’ offensive line could not hold up. Against the Chiefs and the Saints, they had a ton of pressures and QB hits but no sacks, partly because Mahomes avoided the rush and also because the secondary allowed easy completions.
For a pretty poor defense, the front four they can line up is as good as anyone else in the league.
The Eagles must never leave Lawrence 1-on-1 against Steen or Jurgens and force the Giants’ edges to finish rather than disrupt. It won’t be an easy game for the Eagles’ tackles, but they are elite! I would be more worried about the Giants winning inside, by moving Carter to linebacker at times, and collapsing the pocket with Lawrence.
Explosive Runs Allowed
They’ve allowed 22 runs of 10+ yards (29th) and the film confirms they have an obvious weakness. Despite a strong front, the Giants cannot contain the edge. They over-pursue, the DBs don’t fill consistently, and linebackers arrive too late.
The safeties have been no help either. Tyler Nubin (who I liked coming out) is hesitant downhill and slow to recover in coverage. He misses a lot of tackles.
The Eagles’ run game should get going this week. I hope we see some toss plays and GT counters runs, to get Barkley on the perimeter. Additionally, Zone reads, QB runs, and jet motion are tailor-made to exploit this aggressive front 4, who want to get up the field quickly. Just do not run it up the middle right at Dexter Lawrence, please…
Overall
The Giants’ defense is weird. The individual talent is elite, especially when it comes to rushing the quarterback. Burns, Lawrence, Thibodeaux, and Carter are an outstanding front 4 to run on 3rd and long. But the scheme lacks creativity, and the secondary can’t hold up long enough to let the rush win.
If the Giants insist on running Cover 1 against an Eagles offense that’s torched it for years, it’s going to get ugly for them. If the Eagles scout this defense properly and can take advantage of their weaknesses, they should have a lot of success, despite the big names on the Giants’ defense.
Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here. If you would like to support me further, please check out my Patreon here!
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