NFL Week 6 Betting: Best early bets before lines move
By
Mason Cameron
and
Judah Fortgang
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Week 5 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 6. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) [Total: 47.5]
Oddsmakers continue to take missteps when setting the point spread for the Colts, who hold an NFL-best 80% cover rate (4-1), with their only loss coming in a fluky game against the Rams in Week 4. At Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts are 3-0 against the spread, including a pair of dominant victories as favorites. A credit to those performances, Indianapolis holds the highest spread differential (+12.9) in the NFL.
In Week 6, the Colts play host to the Cardinals, who are coming off a brutal loss to the formerly winless Titans as 7.5-point favorites at home. Mistakes and miscues continue to torpedo what momentum Arizona has been able to build, highlighted by a pair of back-breaking turnovers this past week. A revolving door in the backfield has created more continuity issues. The Cardinals currently rank in the bottom eight in EPA per rush and successful run play rate, which will make it difficult to stay on schedule and produce extended drives in this matchup.
Conversely, the Colts possess the most efficient offense in the NFL, ranking first in EPA per play, successful play rate and touchdown drive rate. If Arizona can’t find ways to keep Indianapolis’ offense off the field, this one could get ugly.
New England Patriots (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints [Total: 46.5]
The Patriots are coming off a big victory over the Bills on Sunday Night Football, but the market hasn’t upgraded the team enough through the first five weeks.
There is the obvious: Quarterback Drake Maye ranks in the top five in success rate and EPA per play, in addition to sporting an excellent PFF overall grade. Maye is emerging as a superstar in a budding offense.
But also noteworthy is that the Patriots’ defense, now healthier, is starting to perform at a terrific clip. The team held Buffalo to season lows in most offensive categories after dominating the Panthers a week prior.
In a matchup with a Saints team that is extremely run-heavy, the Patriots are well-equipped to thrive, ranking in the top five in rushing EPA allowed. New England, with an emerging MVP candidate and a sneakily good defense, is in a different tier than the Saints. A spread of 3.5, even with the home-field advantage, is too few points in our view.
