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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Denver Broncos -6.5 (-400 on FanDuel)

Let’s begin, as always, with team fundamentals to establish the context for our analysis and identify potential value.

According to Inpredictable, which tracks market-based team rankings, the Eagles are rated as a +4.5 team, with nearly equal contributions from their offense (2.2, seventh in the NFL) and defense (2.4, fifth). The Broncos come in as a +2.2 team, featuring the 13th-ranked offense (0.6) and the eighth-ranked defense (1.7).

These rankings are derived from a blend of current and lookahead lines — while not exact, they offer a useful approximation of how the market is pricing each team.

Above, we have a chart that reflects how efficiently teams have earned their points — a metric designed to assess the sustainability and reproducibility of drive success. What the data reveals is that the Eagles haven’t performed like a top-tier team on either side of the ball, while the Broncos have largely lived up to expectations: a dominant defense, much like last season, and a slightly above-average offense — aligning closely with market perception.

Despite their 4-0 record, the Eagles have not resembled a dominant team from a performance standpoint, whether you’re using EDP, EPA, success rate, or virtually any advanced metric.

In that context, the Broncos may actually be undervalued, especially when evaluating underlying efficiency metrics rather than simply looking at wins and losses.

Matchup Angle

But on both sides of the ball, there are reasons to be bullish about the Broncos from a matchup standpoint.

The Broncos’ pass rush has been particularly dominant this year, leading the NFL in pressure disruption rate — a metric that captures plays where the defense forces a quarterback off his intended read due to pressure.

Meanwhile, the Eagles’ offensive line, once one of the most consistent units in football, has regressed significantly. After posting a 64% perfect block rate over the past few seasons, that number has dropped to just 54% early in 2025. PFF pass-blocking grades paint a similar picture, underscoring the decline in protection for Jalen Hurts.

Jalen Hurts has consistently struggled when faced with disruptive pressure. Since the start of 2024, only C.J. Stroud and Kirk Cousins have worse EPA on disruption pressure than Hurts. That sort of attack from Denver’s pass rush could wreak havoc — especially in negative game states.

Meanwhile, Bo Nix is built for this kind of environment. He’s struggled when plays are perfectly covered, but that’s exactly where the Eagles’ defense has shown weakness. On non‑perfectly covered plays, Nix has produced EPA of ~0.58, 0.14, and 0.72 over recent games. Against disruption pressure — an area where Philly has been above average — Nix has held up well and even improved in 2025.

On top of that, Nix has become more dangerous as a scrambler. His scramble EPA ranks in the top seven, and his underlying “create rate” metrics are among the best in the league. All told, this combination of matchup and skill set gives the Broncos a real chance to thrive in this one.

Nix trails only Tyrod Taylor and Brock Purdy (on smaller sample sizes) in generating positive outcomes under disruption pressure. His ability to escape has been a difference-maker — dropping his sack rate from 10.7% to just 3.3% on disrupted plays — while creating more productive passing opportunities thanks to his improvisational skill set.

Even if the Eagles’ defense is accurately rated overall, Nix is particularly well-suited to counteract their specific strengths.

What makes this game especially intriguing from a tail-outcome perspective is how Denver’s strengths align with Philly’s vulnerabilities and how that imbalance compounds in a negative game state. If Denver’s pass rush can force the Eagles into obvious passing situations, that plays directly into the Broncos’ hands.

Sacks and disruption could stall drives, create turnovers and allow Denver to win with margin against a defense that looks overrated both in underlying metrics and matchup context.