Week 4 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis

_{Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference . Thanks to , , Pro Football Focus and the for being awesome sources of weekly data.}

In the first half, the Rams pushed the Colts’ defense around, scoring on three of their first four drives. With a three-point lead, however, the Colts buckled down and forced four punts and a turnover on drives that averaged just six yards and produced zero points. But then the wheels came off, as they surrendered 171 yards on back-to-back touchdown drives.

Overall, the Rams posted a 75% Drive Success Rate, which is above average for an offense. But the story is actually worse, as that number masks the fact that the Colts allowed eight explosive plays on the day. When you gain 88 yards on a single snap, you don’t need many first downs to reach the end zone.

TEAM TOTALS

By points and DSR, the defense ranked 20th and 21st, respectively. However, they ranked 28th in yards per play and gave up the 2nd-most explosive yards. It was really the big plays that killed them. Every touchdown the Colts allowed came on a drive where they surrendered a huge chunk of yards on a single play.

On the year, the Colts’ defense ranks 21st in opponent-adjusted Points per Drive.

PASS TOTALS

In terms of EPA efficiency, the Colts’ defense ranked 23rd on the week, with only a slightly better 20th-place finish in opponent Passing Success Rate. Again, the Rams’ passing success came primarily from big plays, with nearly half of their passing yards coming on just four snaps. The defense generated solid pressure on Stafford (9th highest) and recorded three sacks, but he still found open receivers, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt under pressure — the 3rd-best mark of the week.

That effort drops the Colts’ defense five spots to 19th after adjusting for opponent.

RUSH TOTALS

The defense was no better against the run. While they held the Rams to an 18th-ranked yards per carry and the worst EPA efficiency thanks to a fumble recovery, much of LA’s rushing came in short-yardage situations where they didn’t need many yards. The Rams’ 56% success rate was the 4th-best in Week 4, and when adjusted for situation, it drops the Colts’ run defense to 24th in weigthed Rush Success Rate.

Ironically that is better then their 27th ranked season total through the first 3 weeks and with the Rams being such a strong run team (6th in wRSR through 3 weeks), it actually lifts the Colts up to 20th in season opponent adjusted rushing.

CONCLUSION

This was a poor, uneven outing for the Indy defense. It was encouraging to see them generate pressure on the QB, but without solid coverage downfield, it doesn’t matter much.

On the year, they’ve been bad against the run and less than mediocre against the pass.

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