Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Denver Broncos (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-3.5/Total: 43.5
What is the line telling you:
On September 28th, bookmakers in Las Vegas opened the Philadelphia Eagles as 5.5-point favorites at home with the combined total set at 43.5. Since then, we have seen sharp money hit the screen and force oddsmakers to adjust their price a full two points. Depending on where you shop, the spread now sits at Eagles -4 or -3.5. There’s been no movement on the total, which remains painted 43.5 everywhere.
The early bet splits in both the offshore and U.S. markets are basically 50/50, but the big money—the sharp money—is overwhelmingly on the Broncos. That’s evident by the overall early waged money, with 65% of it backing Denver. It’s hard to argue with success, and anytime you find yourself 4-0 in Philly to start the season, there is no reason to complain. But there is also nothing wrong with critiquing how Nick Sirianni’s team got here.
In Week 1, the Eagles were extremely fortunate to beat a Cowboys team expected to win maybe eight games this season. Then they traveled to Arrowhead—a notoriously tough place to win—and managed to escape with a victory despite the Chiefs finishing with more first downs, more total yards, and a full 1.5 more yards per play on offense. After that, we all witnessed a miracle win and cover against the Rams. That was followed by a concerning 31-25 victory against a Buccaneers team that was extremely banged up, with an overall health score 12 points lower than the Eagles last Sunday. Tampa Bay still outscored Philly 19-5 in the second half and finished with 178 more total yards of offense.
We are not sure how good this Eagles team really is, but what they have shown so far is an ability to find ways to win games and cover the spread. Philadelphia is tied with Buffalo for the best record in the NFL at 4-0, and they are also 3-1 against the spread (ATS)—tied with four other teams for the best mark against the Vegas number.
They say luck favors the prepared mind, and right now the Eagles rank No. 1 in Luck Ratio this season. Credit Sirianni and his staff for the strong start, but as we all know, luck eventually runs out. It may happen against a 2-2 Broncos team that has been one of the unluckiest in 2025, ranking 26th in that same metric.
Bottom line
Denver is a complete team and just two or three plays away from being undefeated themselves. Offensively, Sean Payton’s squad ranks top 10 in yards per play, and defensively they also rank top 10 in opponent yards per play. So far, the only other opponent the Eagles have faced this season who ranked top-10 in both categories was the Rams—and we all know Philly needed a miracle in that one to pull off the win.
It’s hard for any team to come into the Linc and sneak out with a victory, so while I think the Eagles ultimately win the game, the value is clearly on the Broncos at +4.
Prop Bets for the game:
Bo Nix Over 200 Passing Yards (-150)
Courtland Sutton Over 50 Receiving Yards (-140)
Over 3.5 Total Field Goals Made (-110)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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