What to Expect.
Through the first four weeks of the season, we have seen Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks getting sacked at a near-historic rate. I found myself, like many, placing ownership of sacks this season on the carousel of offensive lineman. However, I decided that I did not want to go based off of assumptions or anecdotes. In order to provide informed analysis of the Minnesota Vikings protection issues, I am taking it upon myself to review every sack, frame by frame, to see where it is going wrong.
I will be honest, I am going to pace myself to get up to where we are now in the season, because it gets tough to break down film of the same type of negative play over and over. Below are what I saw from every sack in weeks one and two of the 2025 NFL regular season. I do this for the Daily Norseman faithful, so you don’t have to.
One caveat here: I don’t KNOW what Kevin O’Connell is thinking on a given play, but I can surmise his thought process through film analysis.
Week 1 vs. the Chicago Bears
McCarthy gets sacked on 3rd and 2 at the MIN 33-yard line.
Time Stamp: Q1 13:40.
Bears line up in nickel double mug set. Nailor motions across the formation, defender follows all of the way. Looks like man coverage. The ball is snapped and it is cover 3, not man. McCarthy looks like he’s looking deep to Hockenson. He drops back as Hockenson is blanketed by a defender.
I think O’Connell was definitely anticipating man coverage, based on Nailor and Jefferson’s routes. They run directly at and almost into each other and then adjusted their routes at the last moment. The routes would have created a natural pick, if the defense was in fact in man coverage. McCarthy waits a beat before shifting his focus to the middle of the field directly in front of him.
It’s almost like he is waiting for the receiver to be open instead of anticipating it beforehand. He pulls his arm like he is about to throw but waits another beat. Although they didn’t get the coverage they wanted, McCarthy still has an option for a tough inside throw to Jefferson. He then decides to run because he sees green to his left.
He avoided the edge battling against Skule on the left side of the formation. The defensive tackle G. Dexter makes a great play to get off of a Will Fries block and makes a good tackle on McCarthy for the sack.
Whose fault? Play Call 25%. McCarthy 50%. Good play by the defender 25%. I think Justin Skule did his job on this play.
McCarthy gets sacked on 3rd and 4 at the MIN 30 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q1 5:41.
Bears line up in nickel single mug set. Vikings line up with a three wide set on the left side. Nailor once again motions, this time behind Jefferson and then between Hock and Jefferson. I think O’Connell was anticipating they were going to have a man defense on this play, or at least the play looked like it was designed to beat man coverage. Too bad for Minnesota, that Chicago was in a Cover 2.
Jefferson gets pressed on the line and loses his footing during the beginning his deep hook route. He also slipped coming out of his break. However, by that point, McCarthy was already running for his life. Skule and Fries both missed their assignments on this play, which allowed two Bears’ defenders to reach McCarthy at the same time. J.J. may have had a chance at a short completion to Jones if he had another split second, but an attempt to the running back would have likely been an incompletion at best.
McCarthy was trying to hang in there to make a throw, but his instinct to run came a blink too late. He also couldn’t get his footing on the garbage Chicago grass.
Whose fault? Skule 35%. Fries 35%. Crappy Chicago field 15%. Play call 15%.
McCarthy gets sacked on 2nd and 7 at the MIN 30 yard-line
Time Stamp: Q3 12:04.
Chicago lines up in a 2-4 nickel set. Jefferson goes in motion, defender follows. It looks like man coverage. The ball snaps and the defense drop into Cover 2 Man. It is a play action pass as McCarthy fakes the hand off to Jordan Mason. I am not sure where J.J. is looking on this play. He appears to be staring at the middle of the field, where there is a painful absence of purple jerseys.
Skule appears to be beat on the play, but if you watch closely, you see McCarthy drift back. If after the handoff he took two or three steps back instead of four or five, and stepped back up into the pocket, he could have either A. ran for a first down or B. thrown a goal ball to a wide open Jalen Nailor who just burned his defender.
Instead, McCarthy drifts back a little too far, which loses him a beat and costs Skule his leverage he had on the defender.
Whose fault? I’m putting this one 100% on McCarthy.
Week 2 vs. the Atlanta Falcons.
McCarthy gets sacked on 3rd and 2 at the MIN 22 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q1 5:26.
The Falcons line up with six defenders at the line of scrimmage in a single mug nickel look. Ryan Kelly snaps the ball, and the defense comes with a six-man rush. The secondary is in man coverage with one high safety. McCarthy is hoping to make a pass to Justin Jefferson, who is well covered and not open. The only opportunity for a completion was a quick out route to Jalen Nailor.
J.J. was hoping that Jetts would get open, but he stayed focused on him too long. McCarthy stayed locked on Jefferson until he had a defender in his face. He needed to get the ball out of his hand quickly but was unable to do so.
McCarthy tried to scramble and make something out of very little. The Falcons defensive line ran a stunt with the edge coming across behind the defensive tackle. Jackson helped Skule with his block, but was late recognizing the stunt defender, which allowed a mostly free run to the quarterback.
Whose fault? Donovan Jackson 40%. J.J. McCarthy 35%. Good defensive play call and execution 25%.
McCarthy gets sacked on 1st and 10 at the ATL 30 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q2 10:44.
This one was really bad. McCarthy had about a 1% chance to make a play here. The falcons line up in a nickel 3-3-5 formation. It is a five-man rush, and the Vikings have six blockers, so should have an advantage on the play.
The ball is snapped and McCarthy steps back. He makes a quick fake to Aaron Jones who is running a simple flat route, hoping the edge defender will follow: he doesn’t. McCarthy wants Hockenson in the middle of the field, but he has four defenders with eyes on him, and he gets boxed in.
The offensive line protection was not right on this play. Ryan Kelly and Will Fries end up essentially blocking each other. Jordan Mason is looking for someone to block but runs into Fries. Justin Skule is actually the only one who straight up won his assignment on this one.
However, the protection either needed to slide left, or Jordan Mason needed to come across the formation to block the free defender. This play was over before it started.
Whose fault? Protection aligned to wrong side 80%. Defensive Play Call 20%.
McCarthy gets sacked on 2nd and 7 at the ATL 7 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q2 8:32.
This one hurt. The Falcons come with a standard nickel look, with 8 men stacked in the box, not wanting to give up a strong running play. The ball is snapped, and Atlanta is in man cover 1. McCarthy fakes the handoff to Jordan Mason, and drifts back a little too far (same issue as quarter 3 against Chicago).
Justin Skule was beat off the snap, as the edge rusher took him way to the outside. McCarthy did have some green grass for a pocket in front of him but drifted back and did a hop step before setting his feet. If McCarthy was able to step up a beat sooner, he could have had an easy completion to Jordan Mason. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and he took a tough sack.
Whose Fault? 75% Justin Skule. 25% J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy gets sacked on 3rd and 14 at the ATL 14 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q2 7:50.
The very next play. Atlanta has four down linemen, three of which are overloading the right side of the offensive line. Atlanta rushes four and once again drops in to man cover 1. Hockenson stays back to block to help Justin Skule on the left side. Skule wins that block on the left side.
Jackson, Kelly, and Fries get a three on two advantage, and O’Neill has a one on one on the right side. McCarthy has a decent pocket but doesn’t see anyone open on his initial reads. If he had hung in the pocket for another beat, he had a chance for a touchdown to Jefferson in the back of the endzone. Instead, McCarthy tries to run up and to the right, which causes O’Neill to lose leverage on his assignment.
McCarthy could have taken a better running angle, but he didn’t quite possess the acceleration to get out of the situation.
Whose Fault? Good Defense 20%. J.J. McCarthy 80%
McCarthy gets sacked on 1st and 10 at the MIN 20 yard-line.
Time Stamp Q2 :18.
At the end of the first half, Atlanta lines up in a dime formation with four down linemen. The ball is snapped, and they drop back into cover 2 man. Micheal Jurgens has taken the place of Ryan Kelly at center. The snap is high, but McCarthy is able to corral it and drop back.
His first read appears to be Nailor, who is well covered when he looks. He had a chance for an anticipatory throw to Hockenson on the left side, but he missed the opportunity. Jurgens doesn’t get all of his block on the defensive tackle, who gets past him and Jackson. They did block him enough to cause to fall down and fail to sack McCarthy. J.J. scrambles right but gets tracked from behind.
If he could have evaded that defender, he had a possible deep shot to Jalen Nailor on a back shoulder throw. If McCarthy would have stepped up into the pocket, he may have been able to recognize it and load up a throw. He might have had a chance if he was able to evade the sack, but his quickness once again fell short in this situation. (The next play was a 50-yard pass to Jefferson).
Whose fault? Michael Jurgens 30%. McCarthy 20%. Game situation 20%. Good defensive play 30%.
McCarthy gets strip-sacked on 1st and 10 at the MIN 40 yard-line.
Time Stamp: Q4 15:00.
This one dances within the realm of inexplicable. Walter Rouse has replaced Justin Skule. Atlanta rushes 5 and the left edge goes unblocked and lights McCarthy up. Number 96 runs right past Brian O’Neill, who double teams with Fries and doesn’t even attempt to block the free rusher. The only thing I think that could explain it is that O’Neill thought Aaron Jones was staying in pass protection. That wasn’t the case.
Whose fault? Brian O’Neill 100%
Part two coming soon.
Look for this series to continue throughout the entire Vikings’ season. My plan is to create some visualizations or charts to document where things are going wrong in pass protection. The next edition will feature weeks 3-5. We will have a lot to ponder during the bye week.
Until Next Time.
- Jesse M.
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