Welcome to Week 5, and October! The leaves are changing, temperatures are cooling down, and it’s hard to tell what’s spookier, your neighbor’s Halloween decorations, or the Bye weeks arriving while injuries pile up like unpaid medical bills. Put it all together and one thing is abundantly clear: Football season is in full swing!
A personal note: I was at the Giants-Chargers game this past Sunday, and it was a strong reminder of the power that sports can have — to make your heart beat out of your chest, or to rip it straight out. Jaxson Dart capping his first drive by running in a TD was one of the top moments I’ve experienced at MetLife in years. Less than an hour later, the oxygen left the stadium when Malik Nabers tore his ACL. What a game.
Enough said. On to Week 5.
Stats of the Week:
- Derrick Henry was held below 50 rushing yards only once during the 2024 season. He’s rushed for 50 yards or less in each of Baltimore’s last three games.
- More Baltimore horror: The Ravens are on pace to surrender 560 points this season, which would break the NFL record (534) set by the 2024 Panthers. Last season, the Ravens allowed 361 points.
- In the last 18 games that Jalen Hurts has started and finished (including playoffs), the Eagles are a perfect 18-0. I’ll post this stat each week until he loses.
- Hurts did not complete a pass in the second half of the Eagles’ 31-25 win over the Bucs on Sunday, and the Eagles had negative yards in that half.
- Jaxson Dart threw for a TD, ran for a TD, and had more than 50 rushing yards in his first NFL start. The last QB to do that in his starting debut was Tim Tebow, in 2010.
- The Titans have scored just three TDs in their first four games, and of their 44 possessions on the season, only seven have moved into the red zone. They never crossed the Texans’ 20 on Sunday.
- Over the past three games, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed 1,085 passing yards and 10 passing TDs. Warning: I might make this a running bit.
Week 5, here we go!
Bye Weeks: ATL, CHI, GB, PIT
Week 5 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen or Jahmyr Gibbs. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Sorry, but it’s time to brag. My Week 5 calls crushed, led by my Ride of the Week (Jordan Love, 26.7 points, QB6 for the week), Fade of the Week (Tee Higgins, 4.7 points, WR61) and Sleeper of the Week (Justin Fields, 27.1 points, QB4). Beyond that, a contrarian Ride call on Ashton Jeanty, Sleeper calls on Romeo Doubs and Woody Marks, and long-shot Sleeper calls on Jake Tonges and Mason Taylor were among multiple smashes. Sure, I whiffed on a few (like fading Dak Prescott and Drake Maye), but overall? BAM. You can check my work here: Week 4.
Ride of the Week: Garrett Wilson (vs. DAL). I’ll keep attacking the league’s worst secondary, just as NFL Offensive Coordinators are doing. Dallas has allowed the most yards, TDs (nine), and fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing wide receivers, and they aren’t getting any better. Meanwhile, Wilson has been getting it done (WR6 on the season) in an offense that’s short on options in the passing game. His usage is elite. He’s fifth in the NFL in targets (38), has seen at least eight targets in every game, and his 36.5% target share trails only Puka Nacua (37.6%). Lock and load.
Fade of the Week: A.J. Brown (vs. DEN). I had concerns about Brown coming into this season, centered on his drop in target volume from 2023 to 2024. So far, that’s been panning out. He’s averaging seven targets per game, which is comparable to last season and way down from 2023, when he averaged over nine. Three of Brown’s four starts have been duds, with one huge game mixed in. The Eagles were the most run-heavy team in 2024 (around 56%) and so far in 2025, they again lead the league (54.4%). Meanwhile, Denver was expected to be one of the league’s stingiest pass defenses and they haven’t disappointed. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest FPPG and just one TD to a WR so far this season. Brown is always a threat to blow up, but he’s a Fade for me this week.
Sleeper of the Week: C.J. Stroud (@BAL). I’ve been down on Stroud this season, and with good reason. His O-line is terrible and his weapons are suspect after Nico Collins. He woke up a bit last week, but it was against the hapless Titans and it all came in the fourth quarter. I’d like to see more of that, when good opportunities present. He’s ranked just outside the Top-20 this week, and in a must-win game for two 1-3 teams that entered the season as division favorites, I like his chances for a QB-1 finish against the league’s most banged-up defense. The Ravens are down multiple starters at key positions and have been getting absolutely lit up. They’re Bottom-5 in passing yards, TD passes, and FPPG surrendered to opposing quarterbacks. Stroud makes for a nice streamer in 1-QB leagues if you’re without Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, or Caleb Williams this week, and a solid QB2 play in a Superflex.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels (if he plays); the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Justin Fields (vs. DAL). Fields started slow vs. Miami on Monday night but when all was said and done he had a typical Justin Fields performance, with the majority of the damage coming from his legs. If you’ve got a lot of Fields exposure (as I do), my advice is to not watch his games and just wait for the box score. And this box score should be tasty. Dallas can’t play defense and Fields should eat. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards, TD passes, and FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve also yielded two rushing TDs to the position. Fields has overall QB1 upside this week and especially if the Cowboys’ offense plays like it did last week.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include Kyler Murray (vs. TEN), Justin Herbert (vs. WAS), Dak Prescott (@NYJ), and Jared Goff (@CIN). All have great matchups against suspect defenses.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, there are some decent choices in Week 5. Jaxson Dart (@NO, and check his practice reports (hamstring) to make sure he won’t have limitations on his running), Sam Darnold (vs. TB), and Bryce Young (vs. MIA, and yes, he did get replaced at the end of a blowout last week but this is a very favorable home matchup) all have favorable matchups and a realistic shot to finish as fringe QB1s for the week (i.e., Top-15 plays).
Fades:
Drake Maye (@BUF) has been terrific most weeks this season, but something about a road game at the Bills scares me.
Baker Mayfield (@SEA) continues to put up gaudy numbers most weeks but I don’t love him this week in a hostile environment and facing a very tough Seattle defense (Top-10 vs. QBs), without Mike Evans, and possibly Bucky Irving and Sterling Shepard too. Temper expectations.
Bo Nix (@PHI) is a Fade for me this week. He’s been up-and-down this season, and better defenses have been a problem for him so far. I can see the Eagles making things hard for him.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week, include Trevor Lawrence (vs. KC), Carson Wentz (@CLE, London, behind a banged-up O-line), and Mac Jones (@LAR, and minus multiple weapons). You’ll notice I said “might be considering”. There are a bunch of struggling QBs ranked below the Top-25 (Jake Browning, Cam Ward, etc.) that I hope you aren’t actually considering.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Devon Achane (@CAR). Achane was uncharacteristically absent from Miami’s passing game on Monday night, but with Tyreek Hill done for the year, I think you’ll see plenty of usage for him in that regard, on top of his usual rushing. You may even see more sets with Miami having two backs on the field. The Panthers have been tougher to throw on than run on.
Breece Hall (vs. DAL). A lot of things are working in Hall’s favor this week. Have I mentioned how bad the Dallas defense is? And it’s not just against the pass. They’ve also allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing RBs, and four rushing TDs in as many games. Also, Braelon Allen is now on IR and Hall should see an uptick in volume. While we’re here, I like Javonte Williams (@NYJ) in the same game. I say the same thing every week: Start whatever you can from both teams (within reason) when the Cowboys are playing. Just trust me on that. It’s been a gold mine so far.
Keep riding Omarion Hampton (vs. WAS). He’s an every-week must-start now, even with the team down both of its starting tackles.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are Cam Skattebo (@NO), and in the same game, Alvin Kamara (vs. NYG), Chuba Hubbard (vs. MIA), Quinshon Judkins (vs. MIN, London) David Montgomery (@CIN), and Woody Marks (@BAL).
Sleepers:
I think Emari Demercado (vs. TEN) is the best bet to lead the Cardinals’ backfield on Sunday, and his ranking (RB41) for the week looks very low given the opportunity and opponent. His teammate Michael Carter (vs. TEN) could see a decent share of the work in a positive game-script and is a sneaky play if you need him. Opportunity knocks in the desert!
Other running backs ranked outside the Top-25 who I think are potential Flexes or low-end RB2s if you need them this week: Justice Hill (vs. HOU), Rachaad White (@SEA), Isiah Pacheco (@JAC), and Isaiah Davis (vs. DAL).
Fades:
Nobody is benching Derrick Henry (vs. HOU), but his recent usage and production is concerning and now he’s likely to be operating without Lamar Jackson. The running threat of Jackson allows Henry to see lighter boxes and more daylight before contact. Houston’s defense is no joke, and I can see another frustrating day for Henry managers. Don’t be surprised if the split with Justice Hill is again less than ideal.
Almost nobody is benching Jordan Mason (@CLE, London) either, but I’m expecting a modest output. The Vikings’ O-line is very banged up and that’s not what you want against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing the fewest rushing and scrimmage yards and the third fewest FPPG to opposing running backs.
Chase Brown (vs. DET) is tough to start right now, and that’s true of every Bengal, even Ja’Marr Chase. This game could get away early, in which case you’d be hoping for a lot of receiving work for Brown, or a garbage-time goal-line TD.
Cut and paste (basically) from Week 4: The Commanders RBs (@LAC) are a game of roulette right now, and given the usage uncertainty I’d stay away from all three of them at the Chargers, who have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs.
R.J. Harvey (@PHI) continues to be a weekly Fade for me, although the uptick in usage and the TD last week were promising. I’d still wait a little longer, plus it’s not a great matchup.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Nico Collins (@BAL) is an obvious name but his production hasn’t been good enough to warrant inclusion in the elite tier. He’s the WR20 through four games, and Houston’s offense has been very disappointing. I’ve said enough about Baltimore’s defense – you get the picture. Collins is in a smash spot this week.
Jaylen Waddle (@CAR). The Panthers have been somewhat stingy against receivers but with Tyreek Hill out, Waddle should see a major uptick in volume. In the same game, the Tet McMillan (vs. MIA) breakout game is coming. He’s seen at least eight targets in every game and is the very clear top option for Bryce Young. He just needs to find the end zone. The Dolphins have been better than expected against receivers, but I’ll bet on Tet to beat his weekly ranking (WR15) and score his first NFL touchdown.
Ride George Pickens (@NYJ), who is stepping up with CeeDee Lamb out, and faces a Jets’ defense that’s been a lot worse than advertised.
Other receivers ranked from 10-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: Quentin Johnston (vs. WAS), Xavier Worthy (@JAC), Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. LV), Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. TEN), Chris Olave (vs. NYG), and Jameson Williams (@CIN).
Sleepers:
I think Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton (@NO) are both in the WR3/Flex conversation this week, if you’re in need. The Saints are a favorable matchup, and it’s a game that could have some points.
It’s hard to trust any Bills’ receivers, but Khalil Shakir (vs. NE) has been the best of the bunch (with a nose for the end zone) and it’s a very good matchup.
Tre Tucker (@IND) came back down to earth last week, but I like his chances against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the third most FPPG to WRs, and some big downfield plays to the position. Geno has been taking shots (maybe a little too much) and I expect some downfield attempts with the speedy Tucker.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need include: Malik Washington (@CAR), Josh Downs (vs. LV), Jalen Tolbert (@NYJ), and Kendrick Bourne (@LAR).
Fades:
I’ll keep fading Brian Thomas, Jr. (vs. KC), and especially in tougher matchups like this one. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. While we’re here, Travis Hunter continues to be an every-week Fade for me, unless and until we see some meaningful production from the overall second pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Zay Flowers (vs. HOU) is a Fade for me this week as well. He’s been up-and-down so far this season, and this week the arrow is pointing down. I’m assuming a Cooper Rush start, which isn’t great, and the Texans have allowed the ninth fewest points to opposing wide receivers (and they’ve faced some good ones).
I’ll fade Tee Higgins (vs. DET) again. Sigh. It’s hard to tell how badly Jake Browning is playing when his line gives him no time to throw, and can’t open running lanes either. The hope here (for both Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase) is a blowout with extended garbage time, and I hate betting on that.
You can’t start Calvin Ridley (@ARI) at this point. You just can’t. The Tennessee offense is broken and Ridley just isn’t getting anything done.
I’ll fade the New England receivers (@BUF) once more, although I could see Stefon Diggs wanting very badly to make some noise in this game. Still, the fantasy production for the Patriots isn’t coming from their receivers, and none have been consistent week-to-week.
Other wide receivers ranked inside the Top-35 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Deebo Samuel, Sr. (@LAC), DeVonta Smith (vs. DEN), and Jordan Addison (@CLE, London).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Should there be any? No TE is averaging more than 11.5 FPPG. OK fine, Trey McBride and Tyler Warren. Yes, Tyler Warren. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jake Ferguson (@NYJ). In the last two games, Ferguson has 20 catches on 21 targets. He’s picked up a lot of the CeeDee Lamb volume and that should continue. Meanwhile, the Jets surrendered two receiving TDs to Darren Waller’s corpse on Monday night. Don’t overthink it.
Hunter Henry (@BUF). Through four weeks, Henry is the TE1 on the season. No, that’s not a misprint. He’s become Maye’s go-to target when the Pats get close. Again, don’t overthink it. Tight end production is hard to find.
In the same game, keep running with Dalton Kincaid (vs. NE), who is finally turning into the weapon we expected when the Bills drafted him in 2023.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Dallas Goedert (vs. DEN).
Sleepers:
If you’re stuck, I think Mason Taylor (vs. DAL) makes for a nice play, after a mini-breakout in Week 4. There will be points in this game. Jake Tonges (@ LAR) has a tough matchup, but with the 49ers down so many weapons, he could be busy by default. Theo Johnson (@NO) and Tommy Tremble (vs. MIA) are two deeper sleepers, if you’re desperate.
Fades:
Sam LaPorta (@CIN) continues to be ranked in the Top-10 each week, despite failing to produce. What am I missing? He has yet to top four catches or 40 yards in a game, and hasn’t found the end zone either. Sure, one of these weeks he’ll give you some numbers, and this is as good a week as any, but I get it if you’ve seen enough.
Brock Bowers (@IND) is ranked as the TE3 this week and that’s too high for me, even with several TE1s either injured or on Bye. He clearly isn’t 100%, and the knee injury is holding him back. He’s the TE11 on the young season and only has one weekly finish above eight fantasy points. That’s not what you signed up for. Keep starting him, but don’t expect the big spike weeks we saw last season until he’s closer to fully healthy.
Other higher-ranked TEs that I’m lower on this week are Zach Ertz (@LAC) and Mark Andrews (vs. HOU).
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-15 for the week): See my Week 5 Waiver Wire column.
That’s it. Good luck in Week 5!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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