Week 3 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Caleb Williams

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

DASHBOARD

The Bears are hoping they have finally found a replacement for Sid Luckman in their #1 overall pick, but Caleb Williams has had a rough first 2 games. With any developing QB, it’s tough to say how they will perform in the future let alone next week. However, that won’t stop me from analyzing what he has done so far.

• The Bears rushing has not been good, so their pass-first offense is really leaning on Williams (25th arsr, 6th edp).
• They are using him out of the shotgun a lot and although he is facing higher than average zone looks, he is not being forced underneath as much as other QBs (10th sg%, 15th oz%).
• He faces a lot of pressure, which forces him to get rid of the ball faster than average (10th pr%, 26th ttt). Those numbers imply horrible O-line protection and a 30th ranked Pass Block Win Rate would agree.
• Even though Williams does not have a lot of time, he is throwing longer than average attempts (14th aDOT). Unfortunately, his horrible accuracy means he is only hitting on the shorter ones (30th cpoe, 31st ay/c).
• Poor accuracy usually means poor YAC and that is true here. When adjusting for depth, the Bears receivers earn the 8th least amount of YAC (25th yacoe).
• Poor accuracy + short completions + bad YAC = horrible yardage efficiency (31st ypa).
• To add insult to injury, Williams abandons a lot of passes, primarily by taking sacks (5th aa%, 2nd sck%). His lack of protection is certainly a big factor there, but he needs to get better at trading sacks for scrambles/throw-aways.
• The trifecta of poor yardage efficiency, high abandon rate and lots of sacks means the average Bears pass play earns only 3.5 yards (31st ny/d).
• With such poor yardage gains, he’s not getting first downs and that leads to 0 TDs on the year (30th 1st%, 32nd td%). The good OK news is that his turnover rate is below average . . . barely (17th to%).

Add all that together and you get the 30th ranked value per play (EPA/d) and the 28th ranked success rate (PSR). In other words, the Bears have one of the worst passing offenses in the league . . . yes, worse than the Colts.

I will state the obvious that Williams has played only 2 games, so I am in no way saying he is a poor QB or a bust or anything even remotely like that. As far as I know, he may end up being one of the best QBs ever. I am merely saying that his production in his first 2 games relative to everyone else is towards the bottom. The point of these stats is to identify weaknesses in his game and watch them to see if/when he improves.

HOW WELL?

With only 2 games, there’s not much to see here, but clearly, he is producing far, far, faaaar below average.

HOW FAR?

His passing depth has been average, but his completion depth has been short both weeks.

No one has fewer completed air yards per attempt.

TO WHO?

One good thing is that he spreads the ball around well, but D.J. Moore is the clear #1.

The upper right quadrant is where you want your receivers to be and I’m not seeing any Bears there.

HOW ACCURATE?

His accuracy improved in week 2 up to about average. If he continues that trend it solves a lot of problems.

His deep passing is basically non-existent going 1 for 13 on passes > 15 yards.

HOW FAST?

He had to throw the ball even quicker in week 2 and he did not sacrifice passing depth, which is good. If the Bears front line can get their act together, he should have more time to improve his overall game.

However, even though he has one of the quickest times to throw in the league, it is still over 2.5 seconds and the average NFL pass play is far more successful when they are executed within 2.5 seconds. That is true for all QBs, not just Williams. Holding the ball longer has been an NFL trend that has aided the decline in passing production.

TO WHERE?

Not much to say here. The misery is found all over the field.