The Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets are not good football teams. That much, we know.
Both teams enter Week 4 at 0-3, tied for last in the AFC East, and desperate to get into the win column.
The Dolphins are a shadow of the team they once were, particularly on offense. What was once a well-oiled Ferrari, has seemingly turned into my 2004 Honda Civic (probably a slight on my Civic, which still runs fine).
Meanwhile, the Jets are entering a new era, under rookie head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie general manager Darren Mougey. This is a rebuilding year for the Jets, but the same can be said for last year too. Oh, and the year before. And the year before that. And—ah, you get the point.
Come Tuesday morning, one team’s hopes will stay alive (however small), with the other team creeping dangerously close to the cliff of uncertainty.
The Winning Script: Ground & Pound
If the Dolphins are to win on Monday, there’s only one way it’ll happen—on the ground.
You see, the Dolphins surprisingly have the best third-down percentage in the NFL this season (54.3%). However, they rank 30th in the NFL in total third downs converted (47), with just 12 of those coming on the ground. Miami is also dead last in the NFL in time-of-possession, holding the ball just 42.08% of the time.
In other words, the Dolphins have no problem moving the chains on offense when needed, but simply don’t have enough of the ball to make an impact on the game.
The remedy? Run the ball.
The Jets have given up an average of 133 rushing yards per game so far this season, and the Dolphins need to punish that weakness on Monday night. Feed Devon Achane, but don’t forget about Ollie Gordon III either. The latter is a much bigger back than Achane, and excels at running between the tackles. The speed of Achane and the power of Gordon is a deadly 1-2 combo, and one that the Jets likely won’t be able to stop.
Run the ball, keep the ball, and the Dolphins should win this game with ease.
The Losing Script: Just-In Time For The Jets
If the Jets win on Monday night, it’ll no doubt come at the hands (er, legs?) of quarterback Justin Fields.
The 5th-year signal caller is back from concussion protocol, and is set to start against the Dolphins in Week 4.
Fields is an exceptional runner, and if he can buy time with his legs, I don’t see Miami’s defense keeping up over four quarters. The Dolphins defense has already been torn apart on the ground this season by Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen, and Fields is arguably a better runner than those three quarterbacks combined.
If you don’t believe me, take a look at what happened the last time Fields faced the Dolphins: 301 total yards and four total touchdowns.
Fields doesn’t need to be perfect to win this game for the Jets, but simply needs to keep his team in it. Keep drives alive, buy time with your legs, and gaps will appear. The Dolphins defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL this season, ranking bottom-5 in yards, points, and turnovers. Trust me, the gaps will be there.
If the Jets are hoping to pull off an upset, there’s your script.
Final Prediction
Dolphins 27-20 Jets.
Though I do expect Fields to have a good game, I just think the Dolphins will have too much. I expect the offense to get off to a hot start in their brand-new rivalry uniforms, and run the ball all the way to victory formation.
Which script do you see playing out on Monday night? Do you think the Dolphins can get their first win of the season? Let us know in the comments below!
This article was written by Sumeet Jena, who can found on X at @flameosumeet.
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