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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

As always, we begin by grounding ourselves in the team fundamentals. Below is a chart from PFF’s Timo Riske, outlining offensive and defensive tiers across the league to help contextualize where each team stands relative to market perception.

Whether it’s Timo Riske’s team tiers, Drive Quality metrics, or EPA per play, the data tells a consistent story: the Colts have played like an elite offense through three weeks. Indianapolis leads the NFL with an 80% series conversion rate. Defensively, the unit has been roughly average, though the level of competition (Dolphins, Broncos, Titans) hasn’t been especially stiff.

The Rams, by contrast, have been solid on both sides of the ball, though clearly in a tier below the Colts offensively. Yet despite the on-field disparity, Los Angeles enters this week as 3.5-point favorites. That aligns with sound process—three games of on-field performance shouldn’t fully override offseason priors. The Rams have a longer track record of success with Matthew Stafford, while Daniel Jones has been largely underwhelming in New York and is now playing over expectations in Indianapolis.

That said, if Indianapolis is truly as good as its early-season performance suggests, there may be value in backing it now. If this game were played eight weeks from now and the Colts had continued performing at this level, they likely wouldn’t be 3.5-point underdogs. That’s a key angle we’re leaning into here — buying into the possibility that the Colts are for real and could emerge as one of the NFL’s top teams.

Yes, most production metrics look good in small samples, but there are tangible reasons to be optimistic about Indianapolis. The offense is healthy, the supporting cast is strong, and Daniel Jones has played some of his best football in this system. The Colts rank second in PFF pass-blocking grade and are forcing coverage mistakes at a top-five rate.

As a result, Jones has flourished within a Colts system that ranks second in EPA per play on in-structure plays, pairing that efficiency with one of the highest PFF grades among quarterbacks. It’s no fluke—Jones has long been capable when operating in structure but has struggled under pressure. In Indianapolis, the environment appears right, and his production has far exceeded anything from earlier in his career.

While the Rams present the Colts’ toughest test yet, there’s a specific area of weakness that could play right into Jones’ strengths — an opportunity he’s well-positioned to exploit.

The Rams have struggled to generate perfect coverage, ranking last in the NFL through three weeks despite facing offenses that aren’t among the league’s best at forcing coverage mistakes. Now they’ll face a Colts team that ranks top five in that very metric—and one led by Daniel Jones, who has been dominant to start the season.

Daniel Jones ranks fourth in EPA per play on snaps where the defense makes a coverage mistake, and he’s set up to capitalize again this week. On the other side, Matthew Stafford has benefited from favorable defensive breakdowns, with the Rams ranking third in forced coverage mistakes. But that advantage could be neutralized by a Colts defense that leads the NFL in perfect coverage rate, potentially limiting Stafford’s production.

While the sample size is limited, Matthew Stafford ranks last in the NFL in EPA when facing perfect coverage. If the Colts can push that baseline coverage rate from the league average of 33% closer to the 51% they’ve generated through three weeks, it could significantly disrupt the Rams’ offensive rhythm.

Although the Rams’ defense has graded well so far, they’ve yet to face a test like this Colts offense. Their previous opponents — the Texans, Titans, and Eagles — haven’t posed the same level of challenge, and Philadelphia surged in the second half last week.

If the Colts are as legitimate as their early-season metrics suggest, this is a matchup they’re well-positioned to win — and one that could reveal the Rams’ current market value as inflated.

Bottom line

There’s cautious optimism surrounding this Colts offense — as long as the key players remain healthy. If Indianapolis is as strong as its early-season performance suggests, this matchup appears mispriced. Against a Rams defense that may be overvalued in this spot, there’s value in playing the tails. I’m comfortable buying points here, as a correct read on the Colts could result in a multi-score victory.

Bets

• Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (+310 on FanDuel)
• QB Daniel Jones 300+ passing yards & 32+ attempts & Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (60-1 on DraftKings)