- Ashton Jeanty should have his best game: Jeanty has received the volume needed to be a fantasy starter, and now he faces an opponent where he should average more yards per carry.
- T.J. Hockenson is back to being a must-start player: Hockenson’s usage and production in Week 3 were great, and he has a favorable Week 4 matchup.
- Unlock your edge with PFF+: Access Premium Stats, dominate fantasy with in-season tools and projections and make smarter bets with the new PFF Player Prop Tool. Get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription with code PFFFANTASYPODCAST25.
Estimated Reading Time: 25minutes
I asked fantasy managers on the PFF Discord and Bluesky which players they are least sure about this week, and I compiled that list and ranked them against one another. If you have multiple players mentioned, you should start with the player ranked highest. At the bottom of each position, you’ll find players to start in place of the featured players and those to sit in favor of them.
If a player isn’t mentioned, that means they are very close to those with blurbs, and factors such as injuries on the opposing defenses or weather could influence the rankings. Situations involving injuries are also generally avoided because things typically don’t become clearer until closer to kickoff. As always, check the weekly PFF fantasy rankings for the most up-to-date information to help you make all start-sit decisions.
RUNNING BACKS
Jeanty hasn’t lived up to the billing of a second-round fantasy pick after three weeks. His 25.7 PPR points rank 33rd among running backs. The problem has been efficiency rather than volume. He has averaged 3.1 yards per carry and 0.6 yards per reception, despite being on the field for 83.3% of the Raiders’ normal early-down situations (third highest among running backs). His 47 carries are the 10th most, too. Jeanty hasn’t looked like the special player he was in college, and the offensive line hasn’t given him much help.
The good news is that there are no signs of Jeanty’s volume decreasing. It’s improbable he will become even less efficient. If anything, he should improve his quality of play.
This week, Jeanty faces the 1-2 Chicago Bears. The Raiders are slight favorites, which should allow Jeanty to continue seeing 15-20 carries. Anyone who is expected to have more than 15 carries needs to be in fantasy starting lineups unless there are other top alternatives. The Bears rank in the bottom quarter of the league in PFF run-defense grade and are one of the six worst teams in allowing fantasy points. They’ve allowed 5.5 yards per carry, which is second-most for a team this season.
Jeanty’s volume keeps him a low-end RB2 for a typical matchup, but a favorable matchup against Chicago moves him up to the middle of the RB2 range. Unless you drafted three running backs early or were fortunate enough to pick up Jordan Mason or J.K. Dobbins late, Jeanty should be in your starting lineup.
