• Two NFC West contenders square off in an early test: The Seahawks look to keep rolling on the heels of two straight wins, while the Cardinals seek to rebound after a narrow loss in Week 3.

• Thursday could be tough sledding for Trey Benson: The Cardinals’ new starter at running back faces a stout run defense.

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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) vs Arizona Cardinals [Total: 43.5]

Game Overview

Week 4 kicks off with an NFC West divisional matchup between the red-hot Seattle Seahawks — coming off a pair of dominant victories — and the Arizona Cardinals — who stumbled this past week against another division rival in the 49ers. 

This matchup has been a one-sided affair in recent memory, with the Seahawks standing undefeated in their last seven meetings against the Cardinals, which includes a strong 6-1 record against the spread. That record dates back to former coaching regimes for both franchises, but the trend has held with the current coaching staffs as well. Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks secured straight-up wins as the underdog in both matchups last season. 

Seattle has been firing on all cylinders. This team is making plays in all three phases, holding top eight grading marks in team offense (79.7; fifth), defense (71.3; eighth) and special teams (83.8; fifth). Sam Darnold’s transition to Seattle has been off to a hot start, with his 91.9 PFF grade leading the NFL.

Arizona has also played well despite some miscues and a growing list of injuries to key contributors. Although they’re coming off a tough road loss, the Cardinals managed to cover that game and hold a 2-1 ATS record this season, adding to their top-five cover rate (65.0%) since the start of 2024. 

The season-ending foot injury to James Conner will likely have an adverse effect on a Cardinals running game that has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start to the year. That will likely put the ball into Kyler Murray’s hands. While his box score numbers have been modest, Murray has been effective, having posted top-10 passing (78.8) and rushing (72.3) PFF grades at the quarterback position.

RB Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals: Under 61.5 rushing yards (-110)

Without Conner in the lineup, Trey Benson is in line to take over the bulk of the workload for the Cards on the ground. While Benson has shown flashes in his limited share of the carries, he faces a difficult matchup this week that isn’t conducive to an outburst in production.

It starts up front with a Cardinals offensive line that has struggled to generate push in the run game, ranking 31st in PFF run-blocking grade (50.0) to start the year. This group slots 26th in the NFL in impact block rate (38.6%), which has amounted to a downturn in space for backs to work — resulting in just 0.9 yards before contact per attempt (21st).

That will leave Benson to generate his production on his own accord. While he has excelled in after-contact metrics, this Seattle defense has limited positive carries. The Seahawks hold the fifth-highest PFF run-defense grade (78.2) in the NFL, a credit to their ability to rally to the ball and limit yards after first contact, where their 2.1-yard average leads the NFL.

That buy-in against the run has allowed Seattle to limit explosive plays in the run game, amounting to the lowest rate of rushes to go for 10 or more yards. That will likely result in Benson being bottled up in this one, considering 64.8% of his rushing yardage has come off of two explosive runs — while 42.8% of his carries this season have gone for one yard or less.