Colts’ Week 3 QB Analysis: Another Banger

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

HOW WELL?

For the 3rd consecutive week, Daniel Jones was one of the NFL’s most efficient passers, placing 2nd in EPA efficiency and 2nd in success rate — continuing a hot start that few saw coming. We’ve seen poorly performing quarterbacks change teams and catch fire before — Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill — but it’s an extremely rare phenomenon. Here’s to hoping Jones can sustain it all season.

Jones wasn’t just consistent throughout the game — he also limited his mistakes. His good plays were very good, and his bad plays weren’t all that costly. That kind of steady performance beats the occasional highlight reel every time.

For the trailing week comparison, I switched the view to only Daniel Jones rather than the Colts, so you can see how his first 3 games in an Indy uniform stack up against where he was on the Giants. As you can see, its night and day.

HOW FAR?

He’s posted a ridiculous completion rate this year, and it’s translating into big yards per attempt. Week 3 was no exception, as he piled up first downs all game long.

The high completion rate is that much more impressive because it is NOT coming off of checkdowns.

TO WHO?

He continues to spread the ball around well.

Warren and Pittman are neck in neck in total yards, but the tight end wins the target count.

This is pretty much what you want to see — receivers with good EPA stretched across various depths.

On the season, all the receivers except Mitchell are adding positive EPA per target.

HOW ACCURATE?

His completion percentage remains high, although his CPOE dipped a bit in Week 3 due to the slightly shorter average pass length.

Jones was never known as a strong deep passer before joining the Colts, but now he’s actually performing better on longer throws than on the shorter ones.

HOW FAST?

His time to throw ticked up this week while his passing depth dropped a bit — usually the opposite of what you want to see. But with good protection and minimal pressure, it’s not a major concern… at least for now.

TO WHERE?

He attacked the right side of the field this week, and it paid off for him.

On the season, his throws are now fairly balanced across the field, though the short passes over the middle haven’t really paid off.

DASHBOARD

• In Week 3, the Colts leaned on the passing game even though Jonathan Taylor was highly efficient all day (2nd edp, 2nd arsr).
• Jones was not pressured much at all and considering he stayed in the pocket longer than most QBs, that points to great O-line protection (30th pr%, 9th tip).
• Good passing depth + good YAC + good completion rate = great yards per attempt (5th ay/c, 6th yac, 11th ac%, 5th aypa)
• Jones didn’t take a sack or throw the ball away, instead choosing to scramble to escape the minimal pressure he faced (29th sck%, 28th ta%, 9th scr%). That led to the 6th lowest abandoned attempt rate and that makes me very happy (27th aa%). I want my QBs attempting passes, not opting out of them.
• The net result of all of that was strong yardage per play, which consistently translated into first downs (3rd ny/p, 3rd 1st%).
• He only had 1 passing TD, but again did not turn the ball over (14th td%, 27th to%). One of the key drivers of Jones’ impressive 2022 season was his extremely low turnover rate.

It’s an understatement to say Daniel Jones is off to an excellent start. On the season, he owns the 2nd-highest EPA efficiency in the league, and he’s doing it by ranking near the top in nearly every efficiency metric I track.

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