As heartbreaking as it may feel to lose to the Eagles on a blocked field goal in Week 3, surely the Rams do take some positives away from the game. They did jump out to a 19-point lead on the road against last year’s Super Bowl winners. They did contain Saquon Barkley for the first time. They did get a hell of an effort from kicker Joshua Karty despite not always blocking for him.
However, the NFL is not a league of moral victories. It’s a league of actual victories and that’s why losing a game to a potential number one seed in the NFC, when you’re already in a tight race within the division, could come back to haunt the Rams in Week 18 and the playoffs. The NFL is, by and large, decided by conference and division tiebreakers.
The Rams were within striking distance of not only giving themselves an early advantage in the conference standings, but striking a blow to the presumed best team in the NFC. They were this close to giving the Eagles a loss at home and they didn’t have an answer for Jordan Davis at the most crucial moment of the game and that is why it stings. Use the moral victories to get better next week, but know that it is not the lesson to be learned:
0-1 in the NFC. These things matter. They hugely, hugely, massively matter.
As you will see from the last few seasons when the Rams were in the playoff hunt, they either got a huge advantage or suffered a major disadvantage because of wins or losses like Sunday’s in Philadelphia. It’s only September 22nd and a lot can and will change in the next three months, but here’s what won’t change:
A Week 3 conference loss counts exactly the same as a Week 17 conference loss. You’d be better off losing to the Titans than the Eagles.
2021: Rams win the division, host the NFC Championship game
Even though the Rams won the NFC West in 2021, they barely did (Cardinals 11-6, 49ers 10-7) and they were the 4-seed out of 4 division winners. However, being a division winner instead of a wild card team still helped L.A. immensely en route to winning the Super Bowl:
The Rams hosted the Cardinals in the wild card (rout), had to go to Tampa Bay in the second round, and then by a stroke of luck hosted the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Had L.A. needed to go on the road in the NFCCG, Matthew Stafford maybe never gets that ring. The Rams can’t count on road upsets, they need every advantage in the playoffs that they can get.
2023: Rams win wild card spot, lose in the first round
L.A. started the season 3-6 but miraculously recovered to finish 10-7 and make the playoffs as a wild card. Remarkably, if the Rams had beaten the 49ers in Week 2 (30-23 loss) and not blown that game to the Ravens in Week 14 (OT), the Rams are playing for the division title in Week 18. (A game they won but with SF resting starters.)
Instead, L.A. goes on the road and loses to the 12-5 Lions in the wild card round. The 49ers win the division, win the 1-seed with a 12-5 record, skip the first round, beat the Packers and Lions at home, and lose in the Super Bowl in overtime. We could argue that the Rams were “a good team that got unlucky in 2023” but that luck was the difference between going on the road as a wild card or winning the division and competing for the 1-seed.
These games count and it doesn’t matter if it’s September or December.
2024: Rams win division by strength of victory tiebreaker
Last season, the Rams were the benefactors of a division opponent (Seahawks) losing one too many games. Both teams had 10-7 records at the end of the season and 4-2 records in the NFC West and even the same conference record, but L.A. won via the rare “strength of victory” tiebreaker.
Well, look at the NFC West standings today:
49ers, 3-0
Cardinals, 2-1
Rams, 2-1
Seahawks, 2-1
Is someone going to argue that the division race isn’t tight already?
The Rams had to go to Philadelphia in the divisional round game and they lost a close one. The odds of having to go to Philadelphia again this year, if both teams make it, just went up. Had the Rams found a way to win in Week 3, those odds would have been in L.A.’s favor.
Very early NFC standings:
3-0 teams: Eagles, Buccaneers, 49ers
2-1 teams: Commanders, Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams
Teams with the most NFC wins:
3-0: 49ers
2-0: Eagles, Packers
2-1: Cardinals
No conference win yet: Giants, Saints, Rams
Yes, the Rams have plenty of time to “make up” for this loss to the Eagles. And that’s exactly what they need to do.
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