The Detroit Lions have one of their biggest tests on Monday night, as they travel to face the Baltimore Ravens. For the past few years, these have been two of the best regular season teams in football, yet both are still seeking postseason success.
There will be no playoff results on the line this week, but it will certainly be a litmus test for both squads. Who will have the advantage on “Monday Night Football”? Let’s break it down in our Lions vs. Ravens On Paper preview and prediction.
Note: We’re still using some 2024 data when clearly stated, but starting in Week 4, we will throw out all of last year’s stats.
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA in 2024) vs. Ravens pass defense (8th)
2025 DVOA rankings: Lions (7th) vs. Ravens (12th)
The Lions’ passing attack looks to be back after taking Week 1 off. Sunday against the Bears was one of Jared Goff’s best career performances—including his third-highest passer rating (156.0), seventh-highest yards per attempt (11.9), and fifth-highest completion percentage (82.1%).
While Goff was marvelous, the biggest difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was the performance of the offensive line. Per PFF, the offensive line was responsible for 12 pressures vs. the Packers. Against the Bears, that number dropped to two.
So is that more about the Lions or more about the Bears’ lackluster pass rush? It’s worth noting that Chicago produced just eight pressures vs. the Vikings in Week 1, so there is reason to believe their ability to get to the passer is much worse than Green Bay’s, and being at home also likely helped the Lions. But the most likely outcome is that Detroit’s offensive line talent is somewhere between their first two performances.
Last year, the Ravens’ pass defense got off to a rough start, but was one of the best down the stretch. As a unit, they finished:
- 19th in yards per attempt allowed
- 15th in passer rating allowed
- 14th in dropback EPA
- 8th in dropback success rate
Some of their “improvement” down the stretch was due to the strength of opposing offenses, but it’s still worth considering them a top-10 pass defense last year.
As for this year? Much like the Lions, it’s a tale of two weeks. Josh Allen was electric against the Ravens in Week 1. Joe Flacco struggled in Week 2. Given the disparity in talent on both the Bills and the Browns, it’s really hard to gauge where this pass defense is at.
One thing has been consistent for a very long time in Baltimore: pass rush. They ranked second in sacks last year and first the year before. This year, however, they’ve only logged three sacks, and on Monday they’ll be missing one of their more talented rushers in Kyle Van Noy—and possibly the person who has two of the three sacks for Baltimore, Nnambi Madubuike.
For what it’s worth, advanced stats and pressure rates don’t provide much clarity on their pass rush, either. They’re 11th in PFF pass rush grade, 24th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, and 17th in pressure rate (per PFR).
Player to watch: Kyle Hamilton. Lions players have said all week that they need to keep tabs on the Ravens’ safety, who is currently the highest-ranked safety in football (92.7). Hamilton is capable of being a game-changer at every level of the defense, and the Lions would be wise to avoid his half of the field—wherever he may be lined up at.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. I have a weird sense of confidence here. Baltimore has had such a great track record of creating pressure, but they’ve struggled through two games and could be missing two of their best pass rushers. If the Ravens can’t disrupt Goff, it may be over—even though I have a ton of respect for Baltimore’s safeties.
Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Ravens run defense (4th)
2025 DVOA rankings: Lions (12th) vs. Ravens (20th)
On the surface, the Lions had a get-right game in their rushing attack last week, too. However, I’m actually a little skeptical. The run blocking wasn’t particularly good against the Bears—particularly in between the tackles—and there were still too many unsuccessful plays. Despite rushing for 177 yards (third in Week 2) and averaging 5.9 yards per carry (second), the Lions finished the week just 14th in EPA per rush and 12th in success rate.
For the season, the Lions rank:
- 18th in yards per carry (4.3)
- 23rd in rush EPA (-0.117)
- 17th in success rate (39.2%)
Run blocking appears to be the primary issue. The Lions rank 22nd in ESPN run block win rate and 26th in PFF run blocking grade. Every Lions offensive lineman outside of Penei Sewell (75.2) has a PFF run blocking grade below 60 through two games. There is still work to do there.
Last year, the Ravens only allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of 17 games. So far this year, they’ve already allowed two. Last year, they only allowed a yards per carry over 4.0 five times. Last week, they allowed over 5.0 yards per carry for the first time in over a season. So there’s at least early signs that Baltimore’s run defense isn’t quite as good as the elite unit they had last year.
The advanced statistics are mildly concerning for Baltimore, as well.
- 15th in yards per carry allowed (4.2)
- 24th in rush EPA (0.043)
- 28th in success rate (46.7%)
- 28th in run stop win rate (25%)
- 8th in PFF run defense grade (71.7)
While it’s easy to point to Detroit’s reasoning for a dip in productivity in the run game (new interior offensive lineman), it’s a little harder to diagnose Baltimore’s issues—particularly when they have still only given up 111.5 rushing yards per game, which is not a crazy amount.
Their interior is strong with nose tackle Travis Jones (81.9 PFF run defense grade), Madubuike (69.9), and Roquan Smith (90.4) is a terror at the second level. That said, they could be a little vulnerable on the edges, which is coincidentally where the Lions have found success. Tavius Robinson has earned a 68.1 PFF run defense grade, while Mike Green, who could be replacing Van Noy, would be a liability in the run game.
Player to watch: Tate Ratledge vs. Broderick Washington. There is one more liability in the Ravens’ run defense: defensive tackle Broderick Washington. He’s earned just a 30.0 run defense grade, and has not graded over 50.0 in that metric since 2022. He’ll often be lined up opposite Lions rookie guard Tate Ratledge, who has struggled himself (57.3 run blocking).
Advantage: Push. Both teams have underwhelmed through two games, and while I think the Lions are headed in the right direction, I think I have a little more faith in the Ravens’ personnel. That said, with the injuries to Van Noy and Madubuike, I think it ultimately evens everything out, leaving me perplexed on how this will play out.
Ravens pass offense (1st) vs. Lions pass defense (4th)
2025 DVOA rankings: Ravens (3rd) vs. Lions (20th)
Lamar Jackson put up MVP numbers last year, even if he barely lost the award to Josh Allen. A 30% average outperformance in terms of passer rating is quite frankly insane. And while he often throws for under 250 yards a game, that is simply a result of the rushing attack being so lethal.
This year is a great example of the Ravens’ passing attack not putting up gaudy yardage, but still being incredibly efficient. Despite ranking just 23rd in passing yards per game (195.5), Baltimore ranks:
- Fourth in yards per carry (9.0)
- First in passer rating (136.5)
- Third in dropback EPA (0.371)
- Eighth in success rate (49.2%)
Pass protection has only been okay for the Ravens so far, as they figured out some of their own offensive line issues. They rank 15th in pass block win rate and 27th in PFF pass blocking grade. As a result, the Ravens have the seventh-highest sack percentage (9.4%) and 11th-highest pressure percentage (38.2%). Of course, Jackson’s mobility is the ultimate antidote to quarterback pressure.
As for pass catching threats, the Ravens have quite a few, but the targets have been concentrated on WR1 Zay Flowers. He has 20 targets, while no one else on the team has more than eight. Still, veteran DeAndre Hopkins has four catches for 99 yards and two scores, while you always have to be cognizant of the Ravens’ tight ends, even if Mark Andrews only has two catches for 7 yards so far.
The Lions’ pass defense is off to a start that looked closer to how the defense finished than how it started last year. Detroit has struggled to generate consistent pressure with their pass rush, and their coverage has been arguably the biggest disappointment so far this year. As a whole, Detroit ranks:
- 24th in yards per attempt allowed
- 24th in passer rating allowed
- 20th in dropback EPA
- 5th in dropback success rate
The last metric there is the hope to hold onto. It speaks to Detroit giving up a little too many big plays in between decent performances. That, indeed, checks out. The Lions have already given up 13 passing plays of 15+ yards, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL (though it’s worth noting the Ravens defense has given up 15).
Detroit’s secondary has woefully underperformed through two games, and it starts with the outside corners. Among cornerbacks with at least 50 coverage snaps, D.J. Reed ranks 66th out of 79 in coverage grade (48.3), and Terrion Arnold ranks 68th (46.5).
As for the pass rush, the Lions rank 31st in pass rush win rate and 16th in PFF pass rush grade. So, in essence, there is a marriage between Detroit’s pass rush and their coverage, but it’s not the good kind. Both units are going to need improvement, but with starting defensive end Marcus Davenport almost certainly out this week, it’s not looking great for Detroit’s pass rush—even if Al-Quadin Muhammad currently holds a top-10 pass rush win rate.
Player to watch: Zay Flowers. Flowers currently ranks fifth in receiving yards (218), giving the Lions’ aforementioned outside cornerbacks all they can handle this week.
Advantage: Ravens +2.5. I don’t feel great about this matchup at all. If the Lions can’t generate a pass rush, Jackson can—and likely will—pick Detroit’s secondary apart. If the Lions can get to Jackson, it will still be incredibly difficult to bring him down. Of course, there’s no shame in letting Lamar Jackson pop off. He does it nearly every week. But given Detroit’s struggles against two lesser quarterbacks so far, this feels like the most lopsided matchup of the game.
Ravens run offense (1st) vs. Lions run defense (10th)
2025 DVOA rankings: Ravens (15th) vs. Lions (4th)
After posting a historically good rushing attack last year, the Ravens looked like they were picking up where they left off in Week 1. Then… well, the Browns game happened. On one hand, the Browns’ defense has been good for years; they absolutely sold out to stop the run, and no one knows the Ravens better than their divisional rival. But… 2.1 yards per carry is still terrible, and it points to some questions about the Ravens’ offensive line. Baltimore ranks 29th in run block win rate, but PFF gives the team an overall 65.4 run blocking grade, which is actually seventh best.
That grade is bolstered by their two best offensive linemen: center Tyler Linderbaum (90.5 grade) and Ronnie Stanley (79.5). The other three linemen all have grades under 60, with left guard Andrew Vorhees (42.4) and right guard Daniel Faalele (49.8) being the biggest liabilities.
Still, let’s be real here. This Ravens rushing attack is going to be just fine. You can’t hold down Derrick Henry forever, and Lamar Jackson is the most elusive quarterback in football. Despite the poor game last year, the Ravens still rank:
- Second in yards per carry (5.7)
- Seventh in rush EPA
- 16th in success rate
I don’t think they’re going to be held down for long.
Yet another “tale of two games” situation for the Lions. While they weren’t terrible against the Bears, it was a bit uncharacteristic to see them give up a couple of explosive plays on the ground where the linebackers appeared to lose gap integrity. Still, it looks like the Lions are headed for a strong run defense season. Through two weeks, they rank:
- 14th in yards per carry allowed (4.1)
- Third in rush EPA (-0.252)
- 15th in success rate (38.3%)
Most importantly for this week’s matchup, the Lions have done a very solid job of limiting quarterback rushing yards. Check out how Jordan Love and Caleb Williams performed in their two games: one against the Lions, one against a different team:
Jordan Love
- vs. Lions: 2 carries, 3 yards (excluding kneel downs)
- vs. Commanders: 1 carry, 14 yards (excluding kneel downs)
Caleb Williams
- vs. Lions: 5 rushes, 27 yards
- vs. Vikings: 6 carries, 58 yards, 1 TD
There is hope that the Lions have started to limit quarterback escapability.
Player to watch: Derrick Henry. Despite a down week against the Browns, Henry remains one of the most dangerous runners with the ball in his hands. He’s extremely hard to bring down, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards after contact per rush (4.4) and third in rushing yards over expected per rush (1.6).
Advantage: Ravens +1. Despite some questions on the offensive line, I still think this will end up being one of the best rushing attacks in football. They’ve been too good for too long, and while I know the Bills’ defense has serious questions, I can’t overlook 238 rushing yards and 8.2 yards per carry in Week 1.
Last week’s prediction
I took the conservative route last week, picking the Lions to defeat the Bears 27-17. That scored a point for On Paper both overall and against the spread to move the preview 1-1 in each category. Despite picking a two-score win, I wasn’t right about a lot of things. Detroit’s run defense—which I gave the biggest advantage in the matchup—was not particularly good. Meanwhile, my modest edge to the Lions offense in both matchups was wildly underrating the Lions. I’m not going to overadjust this week, because it’s too early to know who the Bears are, but some of the concerns from Week 1 (offensive line in pass protection) have certainly been eased.
In the comment section, we had a few people expecting the 52-21 blowout, but no one was closer than Defend The Den with their 45-24 prediction.
Here’s your prize, Defend The Den! Don’t leave home without your Jared Goff Merchant list!
This week’s prediction:
The Ravens come out with a slight +2 advantage. That feels about right in a game in which they’re currently favored by 5.5 points. It’s hard to imagine the Lions’ defense having a great day, considering the issues in coverage and pass rush. And while I think the Lions and Jared Goff may be able to hang in a shootout, I do have concerns about their ability to stay balanced given some warning signs about the running game.
I’ll be wrong about this game if:
- Detroit’s OL takes another step in running the ball
- The Lions’ secondary creates a couple of turnovers
- Detroit is actually able to bottle up Derrick Henry
If the Lions can accomplish two of those, they’ll have a realistic chance to win. But I have my doubts. Ravens 34, Lions 31.
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