• Matthew Golden‘s productivity should increase soon: His catch and yardage totals are worrisome, but the fact that Golden is getting on the field plenty is a point of optimism. With Jayden Reed out with a broken collarbone, the breakout could be around the corner.
• Red-zone touches should provide optimism for Omarion Hampton: He graded poorly in his regular-season NFL debut with a 59.0 PFF rushing grade against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he should get more production in the future due to his red-zone touches. 
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It’s easy to lose confidence in a player you’ve drafted if, after two weeks, they’ve only logged three catches for 23 yards and zero touchdowns. However, some players are slow burners, as the early stages of a season can often be about getting in rhythm. After all, starters sit most of the preseason. So, what other metrics can you look at, besides yardage and touchdowns, to signal that your players are trending in the right direction?

Snap count

This seems obvious, but to get touches, a player must first get on the field. It’s often the biggest indicator of what a head coach thinks of a player. If their snap count is dwindling week to week, then perhaps it’s time to be concerned. If the snap count is increasing or consistent, then it’s reassuring. For example, Ja’Marr Chase had a dud opening performance against the Cleveland Browns with just two catches on five targets for 26 yards. However, per PFF metrics, Chase ran 27 routes during the 28 pass snaps when he was on the field.

In addition to his high snap count, two of Chase’s five targets came in the red zone. While the Bengals wide receiver is a threat to score from any spot on the field, the higher-percentage opportunities are inside the 20-yard line.

Green Bay Packers rookie first-round wide receiver Matthew Golden has had an inauspicious start to his NFL career, logging just four touches (two catches and two run attempts) so far through two games. That is, naturally, disheartening for a player many would have drafted with reasonably high expectations. 

However, per PFF charting, the Texas product was on the field for 40 out of the 68 snaps against the Washington Commanders and had 25 snaps lined up on the field on pass plays — the second most of all the Green Bay pass catchers, behind Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft (29 apiece). His catch and yardage totals are worrisome, but the fact that Golden is getting on the field plenty is a point of optimism. With Jayden Reed out with a broken collarbone, the breakout could be around the corner.

Red-zone touches

That brings us to the second metric that is worth tracking: red zone touches. The closer the offense gets to the end zone, the more points that ride with each touch.

Take Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton, for example. In Week 1, the rookie disappointed a litany of fantasy owners with just 8.1 fantasy points (PPR format) and logged just 48 yards on 15 rushes.

But over a quarter of those carries (26.7%) came inside the opposition’s 20-yard line. It signals that head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman were trying to establish Hampton in the more condensed field and use his skills to find paydirt. Hampton graded poorly in his regular-season NFL debut with a 59.0 PFF rushing grade against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he should get more production against a less stout front than the one conducted by Steve Spagnuolo. 

Analysing red zone opportunities can also point to where your players’ ceilings lie. For instance, Dylan Sampson dominated the Cleveland Browns’ backfield in Week 1 with 20 total touches (eight catches and 12 rushing attempts), but only two of those touches came in the red zone.

Conversely, Jerome Ford only received seven touches (six rushes and one catch), but he earned two rushing opportunities inside the opposition’s five-yard line. It’s true that the picture will get increasingly murky with rookie runner Quinshon Judkins entering the rotation, and that Ford failed to convert either touch into a score. However, Ford getting those looks is instructive of Sampson’s capped potential production once inside the 20-yard line, and Ford’s sneaky value if you need to start him in a pinch.

Remember Jamaal Williams’ legendary 2022 season, when he had 17 touchdowns with the Detroit Lions? Sixteen of his touchdowns came inside the red zone, and 14 of them were from inside the five-yard line. Having volume players is great, but if they get taken off the field when it’s time for a team to punch it in, their high-end fantasy value may be limited to explosive plays every week.

Third-down usage

Third down is the money down. It’s also the down when, especially at running back, personnel is shifted around a bit — your every-down hammer comes out, and the more agile, explosive pass-catching back checks into the game.

If the player you’ve drafted is often subbed out on third down, it can signal two things: their team doesn’t trust them to execute at the required level, and their skill set is limited. The former is more concerning than the latter.

If your player is limited, then that’s almost certainly baked into their ADP. Nonetheless, if they aren’t trusted by the coaching staff, then they run the risk of losing snaps to perhaps less talented but more consistent players on first and second down.

Keep an eye on third-down usage, as it can be more instructive to a player’s long-term fantasy success than you think.