It took an extra week to get momentum going with my weekly picks but week 2 got me back on the map and headed in the right trajectory. Week 3 will feature six more divisional matchups, giving us a strong indicator of who is the real deal within their division as we take one step closer to the quarter season mark.
Week 2 record: 13-3 ┃ Cumulative Record: 22-10
Without further ado…
Week 3 Matchups
(Thursday) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM EST
Mike McDaniel’s postgame conference was … “something”. McDaniel is an intelligent offensive mind, he’s just not head coaching material. The Dolphins will move on here soon. I expect McDaniel will land an OC job in San Francisco, Houston, or wherever Shanahan has ties.
This game should be a blowout. Anything less than that should be of concern to Sean McDermott.
Pick: Bills win 34-13
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 PM EST
Within just three weeks, we already have a battle of backup quarterbacks. Cincinnati lost Joe Burrow to a grade 3 toe injury and will miss the next three months. Meanwhile, JJ McCarthy will be out for about 2-4 weeks. However, this will actually be an interesting matchup of backup quarterbacks. Jake Browning and Carson Wentz are two very reliable backups in the NFL with career winning records. Browning is 4-3, while Wentz is 47-46-1. In this case, I’m gonna lean towards the home team. I imagine Brian Flores will dial up pressure to make Browning uncomfortable on the road.
Pick: Vikings win 23-13
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots, 1:00 PM EST
Tua was able to show signs of life against the New England Patriots defense last week. Despite his age, Aaron Rodgers is better than Tua. I expect a bounce back performance for Pittsburgh and their defense to get on track under Mike Tomlin.
Pick: Steelers win 26-21
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, 1:00 PM EST
The Colts have been the NFL’s biggest surprise through two weeks. Daniel Jones was a castoff but has revitalized his career with Shane Steichen. Their Week 2 win was no slouch either. Jones threw for 316 yards and one touchdown against one the best secondaries in the league. Jonathan Taylor is looking like a top 5 running back again. Look out.
Cam Ward actually looks okay as a rookie quarterback. He just doesn’t have enough help, especially at right tackle.
Pick: Colts win 28-14
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 PM EST
Not many expected Houston to enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record. The Jaguars look strong under Liam Coen but they squandered an opportunity in Cincinnati. I think the Texans get their first win in a close game down in north Florida.
Pick: Texans win 23-17
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00 PM EST
Bijan Robinson is a specimen. He is the next great one at the running back position. Atlanta should continue to feed their running backs as I am sure their offensive linemen are loving the opportunity to maul defenders in the run game.
Pick: Falcons win 26-17
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 PM EST
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs eeek’d out a win on the last play of the game. If the Bucs contain the Jets running game, it becomes very difficult for them to keep pace with Baker and Co. The Bucs run defense with Vita Vea will be a key component to watch.
Pick: Bucs win 27-17
Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders, 1:00 PM EST
I’m taking the Raiders to upset the Commanders on the road. Here’s why. Jayden Daniels is banged up and may not even play. Washington also just lost Austin Ekeler to a torn achilles. They have 9 days to prepare for this game while Las Vegas only has 5 days. After being embarrassed by the Chargers on MNF, the offense relies on first rounder Ashton Jeanty to get back on track.
Pick: Raiders win 20-10
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns, 1:00 PM EST
The Packers have arguably the best defense in football. I don’t think that is because of Micah Parsons. He certainly adds to their case. But Jeff Hafley has done a great job of adding talent to his group and developing some of their early round picks. Cleveland meanwhile likes to bark at teams but has no bite…
Pick: Packers win 37-9
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 PM EST
Reason why LA would win: They attack Philadelphia’s run defense with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in order to open up the passing game for Stafford, especially through zone beater Puka Nacua. The defense then clamps down in the run game unlike in the two meetings last year.
Reason why LA would lose: They try to rely too much on Stafford’s arm against Vic Fangio’s boa constrictor style of defense. The defense showed that it still has flaws in the run game and Barkley & Hurts use their legs to keep drives alive.
A big factor here could be Steve Avila’s availability at left guard. Justin Dedich posted strong grades with his run blocking but underwhelmed with his pass blocking. Avila/Dedich – Shelton – Dotson must give Stafford time for all of the in-breaking routes that they rely on to move the chains.
For good measure, this time the Rams find a way on the final drive of the game.
Pick: Rams win 29-23
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 PM EST
Bo Nix has been inconsistent but what should be of concern for Denver is that their defense has not performed up to expectations. My pick here is going on Justin Herbert’s history for Denver. He is 4-1 at home and 1-3 on the road against DEN. Lucky for him…this one is home.
Pick: Chargers win 16-10
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 PM EST
This one seems pretty straightforward. New Orleans will go on the road for the first time this season, away from the dome to the hostile confines of Seattle nonetheless. Seattle will give Spencer Rattler trouble considering they made Rodgers look pedestrian with 203 yards and two interceptions.
Pick: Seahawks win 27-10
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 PM EST
Aside from the Rams & Eagles, the Cardinals & 49ers is the other biggest game of the week. Two 2-0 clubs from the NFC West will square off in Santa Clara. Brock Purdy is still expected to be out so I’ll predict a Cardinals win on the road.
Pick: Cardinals win 23-16
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears, 4:25 PM EST
Brandon Aubrey is incredible. I think if the Cowboys elect to just kick field goals against the Bears, they should be able to win against the gray undershirt Caleb Williams-led offense.
Pick: Cowboys win 23-20
(Sunday Night Football) Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants, 8:20 PM EST
I legitimately think the Giants could upset the Chiefs; sending them to an 0-3 record. Patrick Mahomes is having to scramble for his life through two weeks. Kansas City just doesn’t have the offensive line like they had from 2020-2023; paving the way for three Super Bowls in that time span. Here are their OL PFF grades: Simmons: 60.2, Suamataia: 58.4, Humphrey: 69.7, Smith: 64.1, and Taylor: 51.2. See…it’s just okay, which is why the Chiefs are 0-2.
This matchup fits well for New York with their defensive front featuring Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns (3 sacks), Bobby Okereke, Kayvon Thibodeaux (1.5 sacks), and Abdul Carter (0.5 sacks).
I’ll say this though, just because the Chiefs start 0-3 doesn’t mean that I have them missing the playoffs…
Pick: Giants win 20-17
(Monday Night Football) Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 PM EST
The last time the Lions played at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens exposed Jared Goff. I don’t think we will get a 38-6 rout but Goff will be under duress and can’t afford to make a mistake. Problem is…he will.
The other factor here is that Jayden Daniels gave the Lions fits in the NFC Divisional round with his scrambling ability. Lamar Jackson will probably take a page out of that book for this one.
Pick: Ravens win 31-23
Who is your lock of the week? Upset of the week? Who wins: Rams/Eagles? Make your picks in the comments below!
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