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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans (-2.5) [Total: 42.5]

Game Overview

The last time the Buccaneers faced the Texans — Week 9 of the 2023 season — it was a game to remember. Baker Mayfield and rookie C.J. Stroud went toe-to-toe, with Stroud ultimately stealing the show. He threw for five touchdowns, set the rookie single-game passing record with 470 yards, and earned a career-best 88.4 passing grade.

While Stroud and the Texans’ offense have cooled off since that breakout performance, Houston’s defense has continued to shine. The Texans went under the game total in 63% of their contests last season — the second-highest under rate in the NFL. Their defensive consistency remains one of the team’s defining strengths.

Conversely, the Buccaneers — led by one of the league’s most explosive offenses in 2024 — hit the over in more than 66% of their games, the NFL’s third-highest rate. Whether they can maintain that output post-Liam Coen remains to be seen, but a strong Week 1 showing from rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka suggests the firepower is still there.

TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 2.5 receptions (+126)

No Bucs player felt the impact of Liam Coen’s departure more than Cade Otton in Week 1. Held without a catch on two targets, Otton saw a target on just 6.3% of his routes, a steep drop from his 17.8% target rate last season. With Emeka Egbuka emerging and Mike Evans still drawing attention outside, Otton’s opportunities appear limited for now.

That presents a tough matchup against a Texans defense that excels at limiting tight ends. Since the start of last season, Houston owns the third-best team coverage grade (77.5) in the NFL on throws targeting the position.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders [Total: 47]

Game Overview

The Week 2 Monday Night Football doubleheader wraps with an AFC West clash that’s been tighter than recent results suggest. While the Chargers swept the Raiders last season, Las Vegas has held its own at home in this rivalry. Since relocating, the Raiders are 3-2 against the spread in their last five home games vs. the Chargers.

This rivalry isn’t just fueled by the teams — it runs deep between the coaches, too. Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh’s history dates back to their Pac-10 days in 2007, carried through their NFC West battles in the NFL, and now reignites in the AFC. Carroll owns the edge in their head-to-head history, leading the series 7-5.

With Geno Smith under center — fresh off an 83.8 PFF grade in Week 1, seventh-best among QBs — the Raiders are hoping to play spoiler as home underdogs and extend Pete Carroll’s win streak over Harbaugh to four.

On the other sideline, Harbaugh’s Chargers are riding high after knocking off the defending AFC champions, led by a sharp Justin Herbert. The star quarterback posted an 84.0 PFF grade, narrowly edging Smith for sixth-best among all passers.

QB Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders: Over 33.5 passing attempts (+100)

Even with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, Geno Smith wasn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield in Week 1, tallying 34 pass attempts against New England. That volume could hold against a Chargers defense that runs two-high shells at the fourth-highest rate — a coverage Smith ranks sixth in PFF passing grade against.

And with Justin Herbert coming off a sharp Week 1 performance, game script could again force the Raiders to keep pace through the air, just as the Chiefs did when Mahomes fired off 39 attempts.