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Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) [Total: 44.5]

Game Overview

This Sunday Night Football showdown is a rematch of one of the most explosive offensive battles of the 2024 season. The Falcons and Vikings last met in Week 14 of last year and combined for more than 900 yards of offense, highlighted by a career day from Sam Darnold, who posted 347 passing yards, five touchdowns and a career-best 91.9 PFF passing grade. Twenty-one unanswered fourth-quarter points from the Vikings sealed the win — and helped them cover a six-point spread. 

Last season, the Vikings posted a strong 11-6-1 record against the spread, including a 75% cover rate at U.S. Bank Stadium. Conversely, the Falcons struggled to match spreads in the back half of the season, finishing with just a 1-3 record against the spread as a road underdog. These teams played in each of the past two seasons, with both matchups resulting in a Vikings cover and the over cashing on the point total.

Both rosters have changed dramatically since then. Kirk Cousins and Darnold are no longer starting under center, with two young passers in Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy taking their places.

The Falcons, fielding a revamped defense, played well in their Week 1 matchup but ultimately fell short of covering as 2.5-point home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A late Buccaneers touchdown and a missed game-tying field goal try by the Falcons sealed the contest.

On the other side, the Vikings nearly dropped their opener to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football before a three-touchdown outburst in the fourth quarter gave Minnesota the edge. 

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 3.5 receptions (-132)

Although the Falcons struggled to establish the run against the Buccaneers in Week 1, they made every effort to get the ball into Bijan Robinson’s hands. That resulted in a strong performance in the receiving game, where Robinson caught six of his seven targets for a team-leading 100 yards, including a 50-yard score. 

Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson wasn’t afraid to get creative with Robinson’s alignment. He ran routes out of the backfield, out wide and in the slot. That versatility will create matchup problems for defenses all season. With the Vikings down their defensive signal-caller, linebacker Brian Cashman, their defense may struggle to match Robinson in the passing game. 

Robinson faces a plus-matchup against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense, ranking eighth in target rate when facing the blitz, which the Vikings do often. Minnesota owns the highest blitz rate in the NFL (47.2%) since the start of last season.

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