Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference . Thanks to , , and the for being awesome sources of weekly data.
In my offensive stats article, I highlighted first downs as a critical stat for measuring performance. Similarly, preventing first downs is critical for a defense. Miami managed only 12 first downs — the third-fewest of any Week 1 team, which shows how the Colts kept the Dolphins from moving down the field.
On top of that, three of the Miami drives ended in turnovers. For a defense, the only thing better than preventing a first down is taking the ball away altogether. Miami’s inability to move the chains — combined with their struggles to hold onto the ball — is why they were kept out of the red zone on all but one drive.
TEAM TOTALS
PPD,
Adj PPD,
W-L,
Pyth Wins,
PPG,
Yds,
DSR,
Strt Fld,
yds/ply,
EPA/ply,
adj TSR,
1st/ply,
Pen 1st/ Yds,
3DC,
3rd ytg,
Expl Plys,
TO,
TOP%
The Colts held Miami to just barely over 200 yards of offense and the 5th lowest points per drive.
The Colts’ defense ranked ninth-lowest in yards allowed per play, but when factoring in the value of their turnovers, their defensive EPA per play jumped all the way to second-best.
Other defensive highlights included zero defensive penalties and allowing the fourth-fewest explosive plays of any team. The Colts did give up a big play that led to a garbage time touchdown for Miami, but other than that there is very little to complain about (although I will later).
PASS TOTALS
EPA/db,
Adj EPA/d,
PSR,
Cmp,
Att,
Yds,
TD,
Int,
Sck,
Sck Y,
Sck Fum,
Scrm,
Scrm Yds,
Scrm TD,
Scrm Fum,
1st/db,
ny/d,
cmp %,
aDOT,
CPOE,
Air Yd,
YAC,
20+ #/Yd
Three takeaways helped pushed the Colts’ defense to No. 1 in EPA per play allowed. But even without the big plays, their pass defense held up — Miami managed the third-lowest passing success rate of any team. Three sacks tied for the seventh-most of any defense, and the 4.0 yards per play allowed ranked third-lowest for the week.
RUSH TOTALS
wgt RSR,
adj RSR,
YDS,
CAR,
TD,
1st,
Fum Lost,
RSR,
1st/c,
YPC,
10+ #/Yd,
3rd,
EPA/c,
However, the Colts were far less effective against the run. Game script limited Miami to just 10 rushing attempts, but those carries produced the highest rushing EPA rate of the week. The Dolphins converted 100% of their third-down runs and broke off two explosive carries for over 40 yards.
When adjusting for situation, that translated to the 10th-most efficient run game in terms of weighted Rush Success Rate. Frankly, I wouldn’t have wanted to see how this matchup played out if Miami hadn’t been forced into a one-dimensional attack.
CONCLUSION
Overall, it was a strong outcome, but it was tarnished by a vulnerable run defense — a flaw that, if not corrected, could come back to haunt the Colts in future games.
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