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Line moves tell a story — the edge comes from knowing whether it’s a true signal or just an overreaction. Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few of the forces that can push numbers around, but the real value comes from understanding which shifts actually matter.

Early in the season, markets are especially volatile as oddsmakers and bettors scramble for an accurate read on each team. Big swings are common, and while seeing that lines move is useful, identifying why they move is what creates opportunity to shape your stance and pinpoint the right entry points.

College football markets, in particular, are being bet into shape earlier than ever. What used to be a slow game of chicken, waiting for the best number at a decent limit, has become a sprint, with bettors and touts racing to grab value before limits peak later in the week.

Here, we’ll examine the notable market maker openers and how those numbers have shifted since Sunday.

Memphis vs. Troy

Movement: Troy +7 → +3.5

Money has poured in on Troy to start the week. After some initial resistance at +6.5 pushed Memphis back to a 7-point favorite, sharp action flipped the script. Troy—who led 16–0 at Clemson before surrendering 27 unanswered—caught major support following a pick release at +7, which quickly moved the line to 4.5. As limits have increased, the backing hasn’t slowed. The market now sits at 3.5, though +4 is still available at several books.

Movement: Temple +28 → +23

If the market is signaling anything in this matchup, it’s that Oklahoma may be focused more on survival than dominance. This spot sets up as a classic letdown after the Sooners’ big win over Michigan and a potential look-ahead with Auburn on deck. After logging 19 rushing attempts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Oklahoma scale back Jackson Mateer’s involvement on the ground, hinting at a more conservative game plan.

The spread has moved 5 points, and the total has dropped 3 points. Some 23.5s remain on the board, but sharper books have already dipped as low as 22.5.

Buy: I’ll buy in on Temple, albeit late, at +23.5 (available at MGM or Fanatics). This isn’t just a fade of Oklahoma; Temple has quietly started 2–0, covering the spread in both games by a combined 50 points.

Movement: Georgia Tech +6 → +3.5

Game of the Year lines over the summer had Clemson favored by 8.5 in this matchup. Given Clemson’s shaky start to the season, it made sense for the line to open below a touchdown, especially with Georgia Tech’s quarterback situation in flux after Haynes King missed last week’s game against Fresno State.

With King now practicing in full, it’s clear he’ll start, and that clarity has brought in Georgia Tech support. The line found resistance at Clemson -3, with buyback pushing it back to -3.5. That’s likely where this number settles ahead of kickoff.

Georgia vs. Tennessee

Movement: Tennessee +7 → +3.5

No need to treat summer Game of the Year lines as gospel, but this matchup sat at Georgia -7.5 for months. While the Bulldogs haven’t exactly looked dominant out of the gate, this move feels like an overreaction to a small sample—Georgia hasn’t had to show much while cruising to a 2–0 start.

The line initially dropped to 4.5, then a pick release brought it all the way down to 3 before rebounding slightly to 3.5. Tennessee transfer Joey Aguilar has opened strong in Knoxville, earning an 88.2 PFF grade, but Saturday will present a major step up in competition. The only remotely comparable test? Last season’s trip to Clemson in Week 2, where Aguilar posted a 52.4 grade while completing just 45% of his passes for 214 yards.

Sell: I’m selling the Tennessee steam and jumping on the Bulldogs at -3.5, available at most books. 

Duke vs. Tulane

Movement: Tulane -4 → Tulane -1

The Mensah Bowl is on tap as Duke QB Darian Mensah returns to New Orleans to face his former team after transferring from Tulane this offseason. This line has seen movement throughout the week, with Duke briefly flipping to a 1-point favorite before Tulane reclaimed slight favorite status. The market has hovered between pick’em and Tulane -1 for the past 24 hours, and further movement seems unlikely.

The total has also ticked up from 50.5 to 55, reflecting concerns on both sides after each defense struggled in Week 2.

Buy: I’ll buy the top of the market and the under at 55, as a few late Duke turnovers led to quick points for the Illini, possibly inflating this total.