• Mike Macdonald’s defense could take a leap: The Seattle Seahawks‘ defense is in a prime position to break out after a strong end to 2024.

• A bounce-back year in Dallas?: Could the Cowboys‘ defense rebound after a tough 2024?

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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes

Year-to-year defensive success is volatile in the NFL. Only the elite units in the NFL can carry over their hard work from previous seasons, as many defenses enjoy tremendous play for limited spans of time.

However, some aspects can carry over year to year. We’ll try to predict breakout defenses in 2025 based on EPA per play marks from the second half of the 2024 season.

Seattle Seahawks

Weeks 1-9 EPA: 11th

Weeks 10-18 EPA: 1st

In Mike Macdonald’s first season as a head coach, the Seahawks needed an injection of pizazz on defense after allowing 23.6 points per game in 2023. The defense showed early promise, and through the first nine weeks of the season, was 11th in EPA per play as it adjusted to Macdonald’s vision of what the unit should look like.

The secondary shone, with Julian Love earning a 76.9 overall grade, and the group’s ability to execute assignments against the run made the Seahawks a feisty unit. As a point of contention, Seattle did allow the ninth-most explosive plays in the NFL in this span, but this was still a good defense.

However, the Seahawks really lifted off in the second half of the season. The defense jumped from 11th in EPA to the top of the pile, and the performances of the secondary as well as Leonard Williams —

Macdonald played Quarters coverage and Cover-2 on 34% of the team’s plays from Week 10 onward, compared to just 21% in the first half of the season, and that commitment to putting a roof over opposing offenses went a long way in limiting explosive plays. The defense allowed just 18.3 points per game in the second half of the season, setting the stage for a big 2025.

Seattle’s front office didn’t make many adjustments to the defense in the offseason, though the moves they did make will likely strengthen an improving unit. Former Cowboys edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence was brought in to give the defense a pass-rushing boost, though he only played four games in 2024 due to a Lisfranc injury. However, if Lawrence still has some juice left, he’ll provide for a team that is lacking a real No. 1 option off the edge.

The Seahawks will also hope that 2024 first-round pick Byron Murphy can step up in his second season in the NFL. Murphy compiled a 57.8 overall grade in 2024, but had just one sack in the regular season. Aside from Murphy, the Seahawks have a wealth of youth to rely on. The team drafted safety Nick Emmanwori in the second round, and he’ll join one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens 

Weeks 1-9 EPA: 27th

Weeks 10-18 EPA: 2nd

After a successful regular season that ended with a 12-5 record, it’s easy to forget that the Ravens started the season 0-2 and, by the halfway mark, had one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Ravens sat 27th in EPA per play through the first nine weeks of the season, and their inability to defend against explosive plays in the passing game was a huge reason why they struggled. No team allowed more explosives through the air than the Ravens, with safety pair Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams as well as cornerback Brandon Stephens all struggling to the tune of sub-50.0 PFF coverage grades.

But, the defense found its groove in the second half of the season and would eventually be the second-ranked unit in EPA per play from Week 10 onward. Though it’s not the sole reason why, the decision to move Kyle Hamilton from the slot — and closer to the line of scrimmage — to the role of deep safety massively changed the fortunes of the Ravens’ defense. Hamilton procured an 83.9 overall grade through the first half of the season and played just 88 total snaps as a free safety. Meanwhile, in the second half, he boosted his overall grade to 86.7 and played 218 snaps at free safety, forming a strong partnership with Ar’Darius Washington — who generated a 76.7 overall grade.

After playing Quarters on 12.2% of their snaps in the first half of the season, the Ravens played in Quarters on just 3.2% of their defensive snaps in the second half and became a strict Cover-1, Cover-2 and Cover-3 unit. The unit went from allowing the most explosive passing plays in the league to the sixth-fewest in no time at all while remaining one of the league’s better defenses against the run. Baltimore’s season-long 75.6 PFF run-defense grade was fourth-highest in the NFL.

Calling the Ravens a breakout defense might seem a little bad faith considering the end result in 2024, but the few moves the team made this offseason may push the unit to elite status. Adding Malaki Starks in the back-end of the first round was one of the best picks of the 2025 NFL Draft. Starks is a true playmaker in the secondary and has the versatility to line up all across the defense. He’ll form one of the best safety partnerships in the NFL with Hamilton from the word go.

The Ravens’ other major splash of the offseason was signing cornerback Jaire Alexander. The former Packer collected a 77.3 overall grade in seven games in 2024 and has played just 34 games in the last four seasons, but at his best, Alexander is one of the best cover corners in the league. Chidobe Awuzie was also brought in to provide decent depth, and he notched a 66.4 overall grade in 2024 with the Tennessee Titans.

Young players like Nate Wiggins in the secondary and Travis Jones on the defensive line will look to continue to grow, too. If there’s an area of concern for the Ravens, it would be on the edge and how often they can consistently rush the passer with four rushers, especially as a team that doesn’t blitz heavily.

However, the Ravens ran simulated pressures of 41.7% of their defensive snaps in the second half of the season. If defensive coordinator Zach Orr can dial up the right call at the right time, the sky is the limit for this defense.

Houston Texans

Weeks 1-9 EPA: 29th

Weeks 10-18 EPA: 3rd

Like the Ravens, the Texans’ defense started slow in terms of EPA per play, but finished as one of the NFL’s strongest units.

Through the first nine weeks of the season, the Texans were the fourth-worst defense in EPA per play and were 30th in EPA per passing play. Explosive plays weren’t a problem, but Houston struggled to slow down passing attacks consistently. DeMeco Ryans’ bunch allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the first half of the season, which naturally negatively affected its EPA.

The pass rush, led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., was dominant all season long, with the pair combining for 117 pressures. Through the second half of the season, the Texans’ defense stepped up as an entire unit, finishing third in EPA per play. Rookies Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock made their mark in the secondary, earning 66.8 and 61.2 grades, respectively, as the Texans’ defense snagged more interceptions (11) than any other team. Having a superstar cornerback like Derek Stingley, who earned an 84.1 PFF coverage grade, certainly helps.

Ryans enforced some major changes to the way the Texans lined up in the second half of the season, which was a catalyst for their improvement. The Texans were in their base formation on just 3.3% of their snaps in the first half of the season, the second-lowest rate in the league. But from Week 10 onward, that percentage climbed to 23.7%. Removing the nickel corner and replacing him with an extra linebacker gave the Texans more size and power on defense. 

The front office brought back most of the defense from a year ago, while also trading for safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Hunter, Anderson Jr. and Stingley are the driving forces for the Texans’ defense, and all are back in peak form. Anderson could ascend to superstardom with another big season, and if Houston starts as it ended, we could be talking about the Texans as the best defense in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weeks 1-9 EPA: 23rd

Weeks 10-18 EPA: 5th

The Buccaneers won the NFC South for the fourth straight year in 2024, and the offense played a significant role in making that happen. But in the second half of the year, the defense really built up a head of steam.

Tampa’s defense ranked 23rd in EPA per play through the first nine weeks of the season, and 44.8% of the opposing team’s drives ended in a touchdown — the sixth-highest rate among defenses. The Buccaneers also ranked 18th in EPA per rush, while the pass-rushing unit was 16th in pressure rate despite the Buccaneers blitzing on 44.3% of their snaps —

Without a true No. 1 pass-rusher, the front was inconsistent. Yaya Diaby, the team’s 2023 third-round pick, generated 33 pressures but had just two sacks. The secondary also struggled with inconsistency and was 22nd in EPA per pass play allowed, while permitting the third-most explosive passing plays in the league.

The second half of the year was a turning point, and the Buccaneers lost just one game after their bye week. One solution? Blitz even more. Only the Vikings blitzed more than the Buccaneers, who sent heat on 56.8% of passing downs.

The success was immediate and evident. No team had a higher pressure rate than the Buccaneers, and their 19 sacks were the 12th-most in the NFL. On top of that, Tampa Bay kept the explosive plays to a minimum. No team allowed fewer explosive rushes, and the Bucs tied for the fewest total explosive plays given up.

Remaining aggressive is key for the Buccaneers in 2025. They added edge rusher Haason Reddick in free agency and hope that he’s able to play as he did in Philadelphia, where he generated 135 pressures in two seasons with the Eagles. As long as the likes of Antoine Winfield Jr., Vita Vea and Jamel Dean can stay healthy, the Buccaneers’ defense can continue its excellent play.

Green Bay Packers

Weeks 1-9 EPA: 20th

Weeks 10-18 EPA: 8th

For the longest time, the bane of the Packers had been their inability to defend the run. The defense was capable of adjusting to the growing pass-heavy demands of the NFL, but it was one that struggled against the more physical teams in the NFL. But as the season progressed, the Packers grew into a well-rounded unit, improving from 20th in EPA per play allowed to eighth.

The Packers allowed the 11th-most explosive passing plays through the first nine weeks of the season and had the ninth-most missed tackles on those plays. In particular, Keisean Nixon struggled, allowing four touchdowns and posting a 54.5 PFF coverage grade. Having Jaire Alexander in and out of the lineup meant the Packers were constantly reshuffling, too.

However, Green Bay’s defense was much stingier in the second half of the season. From Week 10 or later, the Packers were eighth in EPA per play allowed and yielded the sixth-fewest explosive plays. They were eighth in pressure rate, and seven defenders recorded double-digit pressures.

This was a well-rounded defense that allowed just 18 points per game after its Week 10 bye. And, the Packers just got even better.

The Packers traded two first-round picks and interior defensive linemen Kenny Clark to the Dallas Cowboys for All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons, and the former Nittany Lion is going to change the face of this defense. Parsons collected a 90.0 overall grade in 2024, registering 70 pressures in 13 games, and is one of the NFL’s elite defensive players.

Dropping him into this defense, which features the likes of Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness makes this unit one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. And with Edgerrin Cooper, who secured an 84.0 overall grade in his rookie season, and the improving Quay Walker at the second level, the Packers are primed to compete on both sides of the ball.

There are questions about the depth at outside corner after the departures of Alexander and Eric Stokes, as Nixon and Nate Hobbs —Xavier McKinney — who earned an 84.8 overall grade and led the NFL in interceptions in 2024 — and Evan Williams gives the defense some cover over the top. After all, the Packers might not need it if they’re getting into the backfield on every play.