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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

The Saints’ run defense completely collapsed down the stretch last season, finishing bottom three in nearly every rushing metric. This is a unit highly vulnerable to ground attacks.

James Conner, meanwhile, ranked sixth in the NFL in percentage of team red-zone touches — the go-to option for Arizona when they got in close. Even if Trey Benson eats into his overall workload, it’s unlikely those high-leverage red-zone carries are the ones that disappear.

With one of the largest spreads on the slate in a game the Cardinals should control, expect plenty of goal-line chances and for the “old reliable” Conner to get the call in a terrific matchup.

Longshot: RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Panthers’ run defense was abysmal last season, finishing dead last in rush success rate by allowing 51% of runs against them to gain positive expected points. The gap between Carolina at No. 32 and the next-worst team was as wide as the gap between No. 2 and No. 16 — a massive separation that highlights just how bad this unit was.

And with little done in the offseason to fix those issues, the Panthers project once again as one of the league’s worst run defenses, especially in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

There is some uncertainty over who gets Jacksonville’s goal-line carries, but with Travis Etienne being used more as a hybrid weapon around the formation, Tank Bigsby looks like the candidate to handle those high-leverage rushes. At +160, Bigsby to score is a long shot that I’m looking to play against this vulnerable run defense.