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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) +230 on Fan Duel

Week 1 presents a natural opportunity for tails. With change comes uncertainty, and with uncertainty comes a wider range of outcomes—and more chances for us, as bettors, to connect on those tails. Put differently, the right frame of reference for Week 1 is to ask: What are the spots where we expect the broadest range of potential updating? If this game were played seven weeks from now, after the market had more information, which way would the line most likely move?

We’re diving directly into that uncertainty with a bet on the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. Given that he’s only dropped back 120 times at the NFL level, many of Penix’s production numbers are vulnerable to sample-size noise, especially when compared against more stable stylistic indicators. Still, it’s notable that his PFF grade would have ranked second among quarterbacks last season, his EPA per play would have been 11th, and he posted an elite 10% pressure-to-sack rate. That’s the potential we’re chasing here—the upside of Penix quickly emerging as a dominant quarterback.

Adding that to a ground attack that finished No. 1 in the NFL in rush success rate and near the top in rush EPA, Atlanta has the infrastructure to keep Penix in favorable situations. That rushing efficiency should ensure he’s consistently operating within the game states where he excelled most in his limited sample.

Where Penix looked his best was on plays that stayed clean — plays with no defensive disruption, whether from pressure forcing him off his read or tight coverage eliminating options. There’s certainly some scheme dependency in that success, but that’s part of the point: he’ll be operating in the same Zac Robinson system, and his PFF grade reinforces that the strong EPA numbers weren’t a fluke.

Penix played at an elite level when he stayed within the structure of the offense, and I’m buying his ability to sustain that when the environment is stable — as it should be in Week 1 against a Buccaneers defense that was middle of the pack in nearly every meaningful category.

It’s also worth noting that the base rate of clean plays is naturally higher when the offense isn’t forced into obvious passing situations. Given Atlanta’s run game and a Bucs defense that has ranked bottom-10 in disruption rate over the past two seasons, Penix should find himself in plenty of those favorable conditions.

On the other side, there are still major questions about Tampa Bay’s offense. Baker Mayfield enters 2025 having learned his third offensive system in as many years, and that context matters when setting expectations. His production spike last season was dramatic, as he nearly doubled both his EPA per play and PFF grade from 2023 to 2024, with improvements across nearly every key category.

One of the most notable schematic shifts was the increased role of screen passes in the attack. In 2023, Mayfield ranked seventh-lowest among quarterbacks in screen rate…

In 2024, that number spiked to the fourth-highest in the league (15%). Not only did screens become more frequent, but they were also highly effective. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff generated more EPA per play on screens. And in total production, Tampa Bay’s screen game added nearly 28 expected points — the second-highest mark by any quarterback over the past four seasons, trailing only Patrick Mahomes in 2021.

With former offensive coordinator Liam Coen now out of the picture, it’s reasonable to expect fewer screens in 2025 — and reduced efficiency when they are used.

That’s a problem because the surge in screen usage last year helped mask one of Mayfield’s longest-standing weaknesses: handling pressure. That weakness will be even harder to hide this season, as he’ll be without PFF’s No. 1–graded tackle, Tristan Wirfs, for the first time in his Buccaneers tenure. His replacement, Charlie Heck, brings a career pass-blocking grade of just 47.7, which does little to inspire confidence in this offense, especially when paired with Mayfield’s history of struggling under pressure.

Mayfield has consistently struggled to avoid sacks when pressured, and that didn’t suddenly change in 2024. Instead, Tampa Bay’s screen-heavy approach simply limited how often he had to face those situations. Screens are largely pressure-agnostic, and the added volume helped stabilize his overall sack rate. Without that same outlet in 2025, Mayfield is likely to be exposed to pressure more frequently, and the resulting losses — in both efficiency and drive-killing sacks — could resurface. If that happens, this Buccaneers offense may look far different than the unit that closed out 2024.