- Michigan–Oklahoma: Two very similar programs meet in this top-20 showdown.
- Illinois–Duke: The Fighting Illini are on upset alert this week as they travel to Durham.
- Win with PFF+: From draft day to championship week, PFF+ is the ultimate Fantasy sidekick. Get the Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Draft Kit, weekly waiver suggestions, Start/Sit Optimizer and more.
Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes
Week 1 of college football was chaotic, as four top-10 teams went down. While Week 2 doesn’t feature as many massive matchups, there are still plenty of games to get excited about.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for nine of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini at Duke Blue Devils (12 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Two College Football Playoff sleepers square off
Saturday’s game between Illinois and Duke matches up two programs that have a chance at making the College Football Playoff. Illinois is currently +550 to make the 12-team field according to DraftKings Sportsbook, while Duke is +1200.
While the Blue Devils have worse odds, Dalton picked them to make the ACC Championship Game. Considering both participants in the title game made the playoff last year, that may be enough for Duke to make it in 2025. The winner of this game emerges as a legitimate contender for one of the seven at-large spots.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Max): How will Luke Altmyer and Illinois’ offensive line handle Manny Diaz’s blitzes?
A trademark of Duke head coach Manny Diaz’s defenses is how often he blitzes. The Blue Devils sent a blitz on 40% of plays in 2024, fourth among Power Four schools. That helped lead to Duke producing a 40.1% pressure rate, which was sixth in the FBS despite only placing 90th in team pass-rush grade.
Illinois struggled when teams blitzed in 2024, allowing a pressure 46.5% of the time (112th in FBS). And quarterback Luke Altmyer was only 102nd in passing grade when he was blitzed (63.1) last season. He tossed just six big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays in such situations.
It’s also worth mentioning that Illinois doesn’t have its top receivers from last season in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. Meanwhile, Duke had a top-10 secondary entering the year thanks to two stars in cornerback Chandler Rivers and safety Terry Moore, though the latter is still recovering from a torn ACL in the bowl game.
Back in 2023, when Diaz was the defensive coordinator at Penn State, he blitzed Altmyer on 63.3% of his dropbacks which was a major factor in why he threw four interceptions in the game. If Altmyer doesn’t have quick answers for Diaz’s blitzes this time around, Duke could pull off the home upset.
Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Dalton): Darian Mensah vs. Illinois’ aggressive man coverage
Illinois is notorious for both the amount of man coverage they utilize and its effectiveness. Last season, the Fighting Illini deployed man coverage on 53.5% of their defensive snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the nation. In the season opener versus Western Illinois, they used man coverage on 80% of their defensive snaps, so they are showing no signs of slowing down their utilization of it.
Illinois shut down opponents last season when it was in man coverage. The Fighting Illini ranked 26th in the FBS in coverage grade and 19th in EPA per pass allowed. Their heavy usage of these coverages allows them to stack the box to defend the run and send five-man rushes at quarterbacks more often.
Duke ranked 50th in the nation last season with a 68.7 receiving grade against man coverage. The Blue Devils’ quarterback situation is theoretically better with Darian Mensah at the helm, but they’ll need some combination of wide receivers Cooper Barkate, Que’Sean Johnson, Sahmir Hagans, Andrel Anthony, or possibly others to win their matchups outside.
Predictions
Diaz employs a similar game plan against Altmyer that he did two years ago, and Duke delivers a massive blow to the Fighting Illini’s playoff hopes.
This is likely to be a tight defensive game in which the quarterbacks’ performance under pressure will be in the spotlight. Manny Diaz, Darian Mensah, and Duke’s home field advantage make the difference in a close victory.
Baylor Bears at No. 17 SMU Mustangs (12 PM EST on The CW Network)
Storyline to know: Can Baylor bounce back and deliver a major blow to SMU’s hopes of returning to the College Football Playoff?
Baylor opened its season last Friday with a 38-24 loss to Auburn. The Bears had serious issues stopping the Tigers’ rushing attack, allowing 321 yards on the ground. While these first two games won’t affect Baylor’s standing in the wide-open Big 12, it is a good barometer for how likely the Bears will be in contention for the conference title this season.
They look to bounce back this week on the road against SMU, a team that made the College Football Playoff last season and hopes to crash the 12-team field once again this year.
Matchup to watch when Baylor has the ball (Dalton): Baylor’s offensive line vs. SMU’s defensive line
Lost amidst the attention paid to Baylor’s defensive trench struggles last week was its subpar performance on the offensive line. That unit earned just a 53.4 PFF grade last week, which is lower than in any game they earned last season.
The Bears’ offensive line didn’t just struggle in one particular area either. It produced a 47.1 pass-blocking grade while officially being charged with 13 pressures and two sacks. On the ground, it earned a 56.9 run-blocking grade while clearing the way for just 11 rushing yards before contact.
The offensive line’s performance has been a heavy determinant of success for Baylor going back to last season. The Bears won all six games in which their offensive line earned at least a 67.5 PFF grade last season. However, they’ve now lost six of the eight games dating back to the start of last season that they failed to reach that mark.
SMU lost a lot of key defenders, particularly on the defensive line, this offseason. However, it still returns a deep unit that includes experienced edge defenders like Cameron Robertson and Isaiah Smith, as well as talented defensive tackles in Terry Webb and Jeffrey M’ba. Baylor will need to play better up front in order to earn a crucial road victory.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): Kevin Jennings against Baylor’s two-high shells
Kevin Jennings entered the 2025 season as one of our top-10 quarterbacks in college football following a stellar debut season as SMU’s starter. He was 10th among all quarterbacks in the FBS last season with an 85.0 passing grade.
Jennings especially punished defenses that had fewer than two safeties on the field, posting an 87.2 passing grade in such situations last year (10th in the FBS). He was far more average when defenses had two-high shells, placing only 43rd with a 75.0 passing grade and the same amount of turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws (five).
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda almost exclusively uses two-high defenses. Last season, the Bears used a two-high shell on 73.5% of their coverage snaps, which was one of the highest rates in the country. In particular, Baylor ran quarters coverage 50.5% of the time, which was third in the FBS.
Predictions
Baylor’s run game finds success against SMU’s new-look defensive front while Kevin Jennings makes a couple of mistakes against Baylor’s two-high shells. The Bears rebound from their season-opening loss with a close victory over the Mustangs.
This is the first true test for an SMU front seven that was decimated this offseason. Baylor should play better in the trenches this week and can come away with a big road win if it force Kevin Jennings into a couple of mistakes.
Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (12 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Iowa State keep it rolling against its biggest rival?
Iowa State is one of four teams in America with a 2-0 record after taking down No. 17 Kansas State in Ireland and an FCS semifinalist from last season in South Dakota. Because of that, the Cyclones have been arguably the most impressive Big 12 team so far.
Iowa State looks for its second 3-0 start in a row this week against Iowa in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry. It’s a game that the Hawkeyes have historically dominated, winning 47 of 71 contests. However, the Cyclones have won two of the last three matchups, including last year’s 20-19 thriller.
Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Max): Can Iowa State win up front against an elite Iowa offensive line?
Iowa’s entire offense is centered around its elite offensive line. The Hawkeyes entered 2025 with PFF’s No. 6 offensive line in the country and they looked the part in their 34-7 win over Albany in Week 1. All five starters posted an 80.0-plus PFF grade in the victory, and their 97.5 grade as a unit is over three points higher than any other offensive line in America. They were also the only offensive line with 90.0-plus grades both in pass protection and run defense. It was the biggest reason why Iowa was able to produce 322 yards on the ground in the win.
Despite running a defense with only three down linemen, the Cyclones’ front has been successful against opposing rushing attacks this season. Kansas State’s normally elite ground game could only muster 117 yards against Iowa State, while South Dakota only had 82 yards on the ground. The pass rush has been a different story, though, as the Cyclones currently have the second-worst pressure rate in the Power Four (17.7%).
If Iowa State can win up front and force Mark Gronowski to throw into the teeth of its strong secondary, the Cyclones have a distinct advantage on this side of the ball.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Iowa State’s tight end-centric offense versus the Hawkeyes’ ever-consistent defense
There has been plenty of speculation about how Iowa State would adjust its offense this season after losing two stellar wide receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, to the NFL. After all, those two accounted for roughly two-thirds of the Cyclones’ receiving production last season.
They’ve replaced those two players, though in a unique way at a different position. Through two games, Iowa State has deployed 12 personnel, one running back and two tight ends, on 72.9% of its offensive plays, the highest rate in the FBS. In fact, out of the 144 plays they’ve run so far, the Cyclones have had multiple tight ends on the field for 140 of them.
Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are the two primary culprits. They rank first and second, respectively, on the team in receptions and are two of their top three receiving yards leaders. Rocco Becht is averaging a terrific 11.0 yards per pass when Iowa State throws out of 12 personnel.
Iowa is certainly used to this style of rugged football, as the Hawkeyes ranked 11th in the nation last year with an 82.9 PFF defense grade against 12 personnel last season. They’ll certainly see plenty of it from the Cyclones on Saturday.
Predictions
Max: Iowa State 21, Iowa 17
The Cyclones perform well in run defense while Rocco Becht makes just enough plays for Iowa State to take home the Cy-Hawk trophy for the third time in four years.
Dalton: Iowa State 17, Iowa 13
Defense generally wins the day between these two teams, and this game should be no exception. Despite its losses at wide receiver, Iowa State is the more trustworthy offense so the Cyclones take a victory in a low-scoring slugfest.
No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (3:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: Ole Miss looks for revenge
Ole Miss entered 2024 as the No. 6 team in the country, its highest preseason ranking since 1970. However, the Rebels missed the inaugural 12-team playoff after finishing the regular season with a 9-3 record.
The first and most shocking of those three losses came at home against Kentucky, a school that only won three other games in the entire 2024 season. Ole Miss entered that contest as 15.5-point favorites. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels seek revenge in Week 2 on the road this season.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss limit the pressure on Austin Simmons?
Ole Miss’ passing game has plenty working in its favor. Head coach Lane Kiffin is one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport, the receiving corps is a top-five unit in the country and quarterback Austin Simmons has plenty of talent.
One issue in recent years has been pass-protection. The Rebels were 90th in pass-blocking grade in 2024 and only posted a 64.6 mark against Georgia State in Week 1. The interior offensive line was especially a problem, posting just a 45.4 pass-blocking grade with a sack and three quarterback hits allowed. Simmons struggled with pressure in his face too, posting just a 29.7 passing grade under pressure.
That could be a problem considering defensive tackle David Gusta is Kentucky’s star defender. The Washington State transfer was sixth among FBS interior defenders last year with an 84.8 pass-rush grade. The Wildcats also had a 91.7 team pass-rush grade against Toledo, the highest of any team in Week 1.
If Simmons is constantly under pressure, the Ole Miss offense could struggle to score just like last year’s loss to Kentucky.
Matchup to watch when Kentucky has the ball (Dalton): Can Kentucky run the ball well enough to stay out of obvious passing situations?
Kentucky was able to win a slugfest against a good Toledo defense last week by running the ball for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. The Wildcats found a way to beat Ole Miss last season by using a similar brand of complementary football and disallowing their quarterback from having to carry them to victory.
That approach will likely be needed again this season, as quarterback Zach Calzada threw for just 85 yards last week and earned a poor 43.2 passing grade. Part of Calzada’s issues can be attributed to his 14.8-yard average depth of target. As a result, he completed just one of his 11 passes thrown beyond 10 yards against Toledo last week. If Kentucky can lean on running backs Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan in an effort to shorten this game, then it can find a similar path to victory as it did last year. If Calzada is forced to throw more than the Wildcats would like, the result may not be so kind to them.
Predictions
Even if Ole Miss struggles to pass protect, it’s hard to envision Kentucky scoring enough to pull off another upset over the Rebels.
Dalton: Ole Miss 30, Kentucky 17
As long as Ole Miss’ offensive line plays reasonably well, it should beat a Kentucky team that could struggle to score in SEC play.
Kansas Jayhawks at Missouri Tigers (3:30 PM EST on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: The Border War rivalry is renewed
Back when Missouri was a member of the Big 12, it had a fierce rivalry with Kansas known as “The Border War.” But the two programs haven’t met ever since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012.
The rivalry was revived this year as a part of each school’s respective non-conference slates, marking the first “Border War” in 14 years.
Matchup to watch when Kansas has the ball (Max): Can Jalon Daniels continue his scorching hot streak?
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels was a rollercoaster last season. His 7.1% big-time throw rate tied with Jaxson Dart for second among Power Four signal-callers, but his 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate was also the ninth-highest in that same group.
So far, through two wins over Fresno State and Wagner, his play has produced far more highs than lows. Daniels’ 90.5 PFF grade is ninth among all quarterbacks in America, while his 84.4% adjusted completion rate is 10th.
Missouri’s pass defense, meanwhile, was very successful in a 61-6 win over Central Arkansas. The Tigers earned a 90.2 coverage grade in the victory, which was third in the country. It’s also the second-highest single-game coverage grade for Missouri since PFF began charting college football in 2014. The Tigers will have their hands full this week with Daniels, though.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): Beau Pribula’s intermediate accuracy vs. Kansas’ coverage unit
Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula will be making his first start against an FBS opponent this week. He was used sparingly in a wildcat role at Penn State and played excellent football last week against Central Arkansas, which gives just enough of a sample to evaluate his skill set.
Two things jump out when evaluating Pribula – his athleticism and his intermediate passing ability. Pribula is a legitimate option threat with the ability to scramble out of pass plays as well. Last week, he rushed nine times for a total of 70 yards and two touchdowns. For his career, he has recorded 6.5 yards per carry and produced an explosive run just over 20% of the time.
Pribula has also displayed a natural ability to throw into the intermediate 10-19-yard range of the field. He’s earned a 91.3 passing grade on those throws while throwing six of his eleven career touchdowns in that range. His ability to complete passes down the seams and to deep crossers should be a natural fit in Missouri’s offense.
Meanwhile, Kansas ranked 123rd in the FBS last season with a 29.2 intermediate coverage grade. If Pribula can take advantage of this weakness, he could have a big day as a passer.
Predictions
Missouri keeps Daniels in check enough to win the first Border War in over a decade.
Dalton: Kansas 35, Missouri 31
Daniels is hot, and when he is, he has proven he can compete with anybody in the country. Kansas stands victorious in what could be a shootout.
USF Bulls at No. 13 Florida Gators (4:15 PM EST on SEC Network)
Storyline to know: Trap game for Florida?
The Gators enter Week 2 as a top-15 team in the country and have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. Florida took care of business in Week 1 against Long Island University with a 55-0 shutout victory.
With all respect to the Sharks, this Week 2 matchup presents a much more difficult challenge for the Gators. USF is coming off a 34-7 win over No. 25 Boise State in Week 1, vanquishing the favorite to secure the Group of Five playoff spot. If the Bulls can pull off the upset this week, they become the clear favorite for that playoff spot.
Matchup to watch when South Florida has the ball (Dalton): How far can Byrum Brown carry USF’s offense?
Along with the extremely fast tempo that head coach Alex Golesh wants to play with, USF’s offense is centered around the dual-threat abilities of their quarterback, Byrum Brown.
Brown has outstanding physical tools, featuring an arm capable of completing necessary deep balls in this offense and game-breaking rushing ability. USF uses those talents to run a variety of option schemes while taking shots downfield, similar to Josh Heupel’s offense at Tennessee, where Golesh was the offensive coordinator prior to accepting his current position.
Florida should be particularly aware of Brown’s rushing ability. Since the start of 2023, Brown has earned an excellent 80.1 rushing grade. He’s a serious tackle-breaking threat, as his 65 missed tackles forced in that span rank eighth among FBS quarterbacks. He’s also racked up 997 yards after contact in that span, which ranks third among all quarterbacks.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): Can USF’s secondary limit the deep shots from DJ Lagway?
DJ Lagway has one of the most talented arms in college football, and he sure does love to show it off. He led the Power Four as a true freshman with an 8.8% big-time throw rate last year while his 11.8-yard average depth of target was third. This past week, the sophomore posted a very good 84.2 PFF grade.
USF has had a very difficult time limiting explosive passing plays under head coach Alex Golesh. Since he was hired in 2023, the Bulls have given up an explosive pass on 17.6% of passing plays, the fourth-worst rate in the country. Even against a conservative quarterback like Maddux Madsen last week, USF still gave up seven explosive passing plays.
Predictions
South Florida simply struggles to contain Lagway and his talented group of weapons and fails to pull off its second upset in as many weeks.
The Bulls have long made a habit of keeping games like this closer than they should. The Gators boast elite trench units, though, and that makes the difference in their eventual victory.
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: Two programs in similar situations
Both Michigan and Oklahoma endured disappointing seasons in 2024. After winning the national championship in 2023, the Wolverines went just 8-5 last year. That was more losses than the previous three seasons combined. The Sooners had their second losing season in three years after not having one in the entire 21st century before.
Both programs also couldn’t blame their defenses for their respective letdowns. Michigan was sixth in defensive grade (92.9) in 2024, while Oklahoma was sixth in EPA per play. It was the passing games that were a disaster, as the Wolverines were the Power Four’s fourth-worst in EPA per pass, while the Sooners had the worst grade on passing plays in the Power Four (55.5). But both are optimistic for significant improvement thanks to new quarterbacks. Michigan signed the No. 1 overall recruit in quarterback Bryce Underwood, while Oklahoma brought in Washington State’s John Mateer, who posted an 83.3 PFF grade in 2024.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Max): Will Bryce Underwood be as decisive as he was in his debut?
Underwood entered Ann Arbor as one of the highest-rated quarterback recruits ever and looked the part in Week 1 against New Mexico. The true freshman earned a 79.9 PFF grade in the win with an 83.3% adjusted completion rate. Perhaps the most impressive stat for Underwood was his average time to throw, a blistering 2.24 seconds. He was committed to playing in rhythm, which is a fantastic sign for just an 18-year-old.
Brent Venables’ defense is a whole different animal, though. Only two quarterbacks posted 80.0-plus grades against Oklahoma in 2024: Jaxson Dart and LaNorris Sellers. Since PFF began charting college football in 2014, the only true freshman quarterback who’s graded above a 65.0 against a Venables defense was Wake Forest’s Kendall Hinton in 2015.
Highest-graded games by a true freshman quarterback against a Brent Venables defense (Since 2014, Min. 25 snaps)
| Name | School | Year | PFF Grade |
| Jalen Hurts | Alabama | 2016 | 65.0 |
| Evan Conley | Louisville | 2019 | 63.6 |
| John Wolford | Wake Forest | 2014 | 62.3 |
A staple of Venables’ defenses is how often he sends a blitz at quarterbacks. Since he was hired as Oklahoma’s head coach in 2022, the Sooners have blitzed at a top-15 rate in the Power Four (41.4%). But if Underwood is able to deliver the ball quickly to his hot routes, that’s an avenue for Michigan’s offense to find success.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): How does Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale choose to handle John Mateer?
Michigan defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale will have to pick his proverbial poison with regard to how often he chooses to send pressure at Sooners quarterback John Mateer.
Whether he is calling plays in the NFL or in college, Martindale has always been known to apply extra pressure at a high rate. In his first season as Michigan’s defensive coordinator in 2024, he deployed a blitz on 43.2% of opponents’ pass plays, the 12th-highest rate in the Power Four last season.
John Mateer carried some interesting splits last season as a passer in this regard. Mateer generally relied on his arm when facing a standard rush in 2024, generating a solid 74.6 passing grade and 9.5 yards per attempt. When facing a blitz, he earned a more pedestrian 60.5 passing grade. However, his 82.6 rushing grade when blitzed ranked third among qualified FBS quarterbacks.
Mateer likes to improvise with his legs when he faces immediate pressure. Martindale has two options for dealing with him – sit back in coverage and make Mateer win through the air or apply pressure and gamble with Mateer’s ability to scramble. This decision could be the difference in the game for Michigan’s defense.
Predictions
In what could be a defensive slugfest, I trust John Mateer and Oklahoma’s weapons to make a few more plays than a young Bryce Underwood in his first true test.
Dalton: Oklahoma 24, Michigan 21
This game likely comes down to which quarterback can handle pressure on the biggest stage they have played on so far. Brent Venables makes life just hard enough for Bryce Underwood to sneak away with a low-scoring win.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs (7:30 PM EST on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Another trap game for Arizona State?
Last year, Arizona State made the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals after winning the Big 12 conference. Mississippi State, meanwhile, was one of the worst teams in the country with just a 2-10 record.
And yet when these two programs met last season, the Sun Devils barely squeaked by at home with a 30-23 victory. The Bulldogs look to finish the job this time around at home.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Max): Can the Bulldogs force somebody other than Jordyn Tyson to beat them?
Last year against Mississippi State, Arizona State relied on superstar running back Cam Skattebo to carry the team to victory. He had an elite 91.0 PFF grade after rushing for 262 yards with 155 coming after contact. Skattebo was also the team’s leading receiver with 35 yards. Now that he’s with the New York Giants, the Sun Devils will likely look to rely on another one of their superstars: wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.
He entered 2025 as PFF’s No. 3 receiver in the country after tallying 1,098 receiving yards as a redshirt sophomore, second to only Jeremiah Smith among returning Power Four players. Tyson accounted for 141 of Arizona State’s 257 passing yards (54.8%) in its Week 1 win over Northern Arizona and also caught both of the team’s receiving touchdowns. He also caught half (12) of quarterback Sam Leavitt’s completions.
He and quarterback Sam Leavitt form the nation’s best quarterback-wide receiver connection. Mississippi State, meanwhile, had the worst defensive grade in the Power Four last season. If the Bulldogs can focus on stopping Tyson and force Leavitt to find some of his other pass-catchers, they can make this game interesting once again.
Matchup to watch when Mississippi State has the ball (Dalton): Can Mississippi State find success on the ground?
Last year’s game between these two teams featured a stark rushing difference that allowed Arizona State to pull ahead early. Excluding sacks, the Sun Devils outrushed the Bulldogs 350-61 in a physically dominant effort, particularly from eventual NFL running back Cameron Skattebo.
Mississippi State needs to find a way to add balance to its offense and better control the pace of the game. The Bulldogs did a nice job of that last week against a cagey Southern Miss team. In total, the Bulldogs racked up 192 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Davon Booth led the way with 80 yards and an 82.7 rushing grade while South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell scored two of the three touchdowns.
Mississippi State’s passing game has been functional over the past two seasons when quarterback Blake Shapen is healthy. He played well in this matchup last season, earning an 84.8 passing grade and nearly leading the team back from a 27-point deficit. If the Bulldogs can add some balance on the ground, Shapen should see larger throwing windows in this rematch.
Predictions
Leavitt and Tyson find plenty of success against Mississippi State’s questionable defense and the Sun Devils enjoy a more comfortable victory than last year.
Dalton: Arizona State 28, Mississippi State 24
Arizona State still has to adjust to life without Cameron Skattebo, though there may be a couple of solid in-house options to replace his rushing production. The Sun Devils will be heading into a hostile environment, but Sam Leavitt should be able to guide them through some potential adversity.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30 PM EST on ACC Network)
Storyline to know: Can Virginia Tech exact revenge on Vanderbilt?
Last season’s season opener was the first time since 1989 that the Hokies and Commodores met on the gridiron. Even though Virginia Tech entered the game as 13.5-point favorites, Vanderbilt announced itself to the college football world with a 34-27 victory.
That game would ultimately set the tone for how the 2024 campaign would go for both programs. The Commodores enjoyed their first winning season in 11 years while the Hokies suffered their fourth losing campaign in the past five seasons. After losing to No. 13 South Carolina in Week 1, Virginia Tech is eager to exact revenge and get its season back on track this week.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Can the Hokies prevent explosive plays from Diego Pavia, particularly through the air?
Vanderbilt will give the majority of its opponents problems due to its diverse run game and Diego Pavia’s ability to will his team to victory with his legs. However, when Pavia finds a consistent groove through the air, the Commodores only get tougher to stop.
That’s exactly what happened in Vanderbilt’s victory over the Hokies to open the 2024 season. Pavia finished that game with a career-high 93.4 passing grade. He dropped back to pass just 22 times, but was extremely efficient in doing so, racking up 11.9 yards per attempt.
At the crux of Virginia Tech’s issues that day in the passing game was an inability to pressure Pavia into mistakes. Pavia completed 10 of his 13 passes from a clean pocket for 178 yards and a touchdown. That performance included both of his big-time throws and a 94.4 clean pocket passing grade.
The Hokies will need a similar pass-rush performance as last week, when they sacked South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers four times, in order to deter Pavia from using his underrated vertical passing ability against them once again.
Matchup to watch when Virginia Tech has the ball (Max): Will the Hokies’ passing game be more efficient than Week 1?
Virginia Tech struggled to get anything going with its passing attack in the loss to South Carolina on Sunday. The Hokies averaged just -0.140 EPA per pass, their worst single-game performance in a decade. Quarterback Kyron Drones completed just 42.9% of his passes, and Virginia Tech had a putrid 38.2 pass-blocking grade as a team.
The good news for the Hokies is that the Commodores’ defense doesn’t project to be nearly as ferocious as the Gamecocks’ one was. Vanderbilt was 112th in EPA per pass on defense last season and lost its two best players on defense, safeties De’Rickey Wright and CJ Taylor.
Considering the Commodores were 40th in EPA per run last year, this game could come down to whether Kyron Drones and the Hokies can keep up with Diego Pavia.
Predictions
Max: Virginia Tech 28, Vanderbilt 27
Kyron Drones and the Hokies’ passing attack bounce back in Week 2, and Virginia Tech gets its season back on track with a nailbiter victory over Vanderbilt.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 27, Virginia Tech 23
Diego Pavia will be the story once again for a very experienced cast that returned to Vanderbilt. The Hokies will be playing on less rest than the Commodores and need to quickly find answers for their stagnant offense if they are going to outduel them this time. Vanderbilt takes care of business in a tough road environment.
