College Football Week 1 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the biggest games
By
Max Chadwick
and
Dalton Wasserman
- No. 1 square off: The two betting favorites to win the national championship clash in what may be the biggest game of the entire 2025 regular season.
- Three top-10 matchups: Outside of Texas and Ohio State, there are two other games between top-10 teams in LSU–Clemson and Notre Dame–Miami (FL).
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 40 minutes
We finally made it.
Week 1 of the college football season is here. It’s a loaded slate spread across five days, including three games between top-10 teams and 11 total matchups between Power Four programs.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for all 11 of those games in Week 1.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (Kansas City, Thursday, 9 PM ET, ESPN)
Storyline to know: Two programs looking to take the next step
Thursday’s game between Nebraska and Cincinnati marks the second instance where these two teams will face off, and the first time in 119 years. While they haven’t shared the same field often, these two programs are similar in the fact that they’re looking to move forward in 2025.
The Cornhuskers made their first bowl game since 2016 last season and could have even more success this year with promising quarterback Dylan Raiola entering his sophomore campaign. Nebraska also faces the second-easiest schedule in the Big Ten, according to PFF’s power rankings.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati missed a bowl game for a second straight season in 2024 but still tallied two more victories than it had in 2023 by finishing 5-7. The Bearcats have a 52% chance to make a bowl game in 2025, according to PFF’s power rankings, and a win over the Cornhuskers would go a long way in showing that head coach Scott Satterfield has this program moving in the right direction.
Matchup to watch when Nebraska has the ball (Max): Dylan Raiola vs. Cincinnati’s zone coverage
Cincinnati defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt ran a very zone-heavy defense during his first year calling plays in 2024. The Bearcats only utilized man coverage on 95 plays last season, which was the second-fewest in the Power Four to only Indiana.
While Raiola struggled against man coverage as a true freshman, he thrived against zone defenses. He completed 73.4% of passes against zone coverage, good for 10th in the FBS. Raiola’s 80.3 PFF passing grade against zone coverage was also 23rd in the nation. Despite being so young, he has a veteran understanding of where the holes are in zone coverage and has both the arm talent and the touch to layer throws over defenders. Raiola also boasts an improved receiving corps to throw to as a sophomore, thanks to the additions of wide receivers Dane Key and Nyziah Hunter in the transfer portal.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Dalton): Cincinnati’s run game vs. Nebraska’s run defense
Cincinnati’s most consistent asset on offense last season was its rushing attack. As a team, the Bearcats’ 87.3 PFF rushing grade ranked sixth in the Big 12 and 36th in the nation. Considering Brendan Sorsby’s struggles down the stretch last year and the uncertainty surrounding the Bearcats’ passing game, they will want to use the same formula this season.
Though Cincinnati lost star running back Corey Kiner to graduation, Sorsby, Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor will be tasked with picking up the slack on the ground. Despite everything else that went wrong during the Bearcats’ season-ending five-game losing streak, they actually improved their run game down the stretch. From Weeks 9 to 14, Cincinnati ranked 20th in the nation in yards per carry and third in explosive run rate.
Nebraska counters with a run defense that did an excellent job of creating havoc early in plays and disallowing explosive runs. The Cornhuskers permitted the 17th-fewest yards per carry and fourth-fewest rushing yards before contact in the FBS last season. They also tied for the 13th-fewest explosive runs allowed. Look for Georgia Southern transfer linebacker Marques Watson-Trent to clean up plenty of plays after he posted a 90.1 PFF run-defense grade for the Eagles last season.
Predictions
Max: Nebraska 34, Cincinnati 20
Raiola is able to carve up the Bearcats’ zone-heavy defense and shows out in the stadium where his idol, Patrick Mahomes, has built a legendary career.
Dalton: Nebraska 27, Cincinnati 17
Cincinnati’s defensive scheme sets Raiola up for success. As long as Nebraska excels in run defense and forces Brendan Sorsby to beat the Huskers with his arm, the Cornhuskers should have a good night.
Storyline to know: Business as usual for one program, while another enters a whole new era
Georgia Tech enjoyed its second-straight winning season last year largely due to its offense, which finished 24th in EPA per play. That should remain a strong unit in 2025. Haynes King is a top-five quarterback in the ACC, Jamal Haynes is a top-10 running back in the country and the Yellow Jackets still have a great receiving corps even after losing Eric Singleton Jr. thanks to the addition of Eric Rivers and the return of Malik Rutherford. The Yellow Jackets are now seen as a sleeper in the ACC.
Colorado was even more successful in 2024, finishing 9-4 and No. 25 in the final AP poll. That was the Buffaloes’ best finish in eight years. However, Colorado lost a lot of talent from last year’s roster, namely wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Hunter won the program’s second Heisman Trophy last season, while Sanders finished in eighth place for the award. Head coach Deion Sanders now enters a whole new era without those two leading the Buffaloes.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Georgia Tech’s powerful option attack vs. Colorado’s front seven
No Power Four team ran more combined read option and speed option plays than Georgia Tech last season. The team’s ability to lean on that diverse run game was the reason it still made a bowl game despite quarterback King’s compromised throwing shoulder. The confusion that King, Haynes and jet sweep threats like Rutherford create in the backfield is a huge problem for opposing defenses
Colorado’s disciplined approach in run defense was key for it last season when defending option-style attacks. When opponents deployed a read option or speed option last season, the Buffaloes posted an 86.1 PFF run-defense grade last season, which tied South Carolina and Ohio State for the 10th-best mark in the nation. They also allowed the 17th-lowest EPA per rush in those situations.
The other challenge for Colorado will be the sheer physical nature of the game. The opponents that bothered the Buffaloes last season were the ones who were persistent in running the ball. Colorado went 4-4 last season when facing at least 35 rushing attempts. The Yellow Jackets averaged nearly 37 carries per game and won five of the seven matchups in which they totaled at least 35.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): What does Colorado’s offense look like with Kaidon Salter at the helm?
Head coach Deion Sanders recently announced Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter will replace his son, Shedeur, as the Buffaloes’ starting quarterback. Those are pretty big shoes to fill, considering Sanders owned a 91.4 PFF passing grade across his two years at Colorado.
Salter has recorded an impressive 89.8 overall PFF grade across the last two seasons with the Flames. However, his play style is extremely different from Sanders’, who thrived as a dropback passer thanks to his accuracy.
Salter is a big-armed, dual-threat quarterback who thrives off of play action, posting a 92.7 PFF grade on play action across the last two seasons. His 66 explosive runs since 2023 are also tied for the most among all quarterbacks in the nation. However, he’s not very accurate (122nd in adjusted completion rate in 2024) and struggles as a pure dropback passer with just a 70.5 PFF passing grade without play action since 2023.
Colorado ran play action at just the 90th-highest rate in the nation last year (28.4%), largely because it ran the ball at the lowest rate in the Power Four (30.6%).
The good news for the Buffs is that the Yellow Jackets’ pass defense struggled last year, placing 116th in PFF pass-rush grade and 106th in PFF coverage grade. Georgia Tech also lost three of its four pressure leaders from 2024 and its best defensive back, cornerback Warren Burrell.
Predictions
Max: Colorado 28, Georgia Tech 27
Even though the Buffaloes’ offense could experience some hiccups without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, the Buffaloes still score enough on a vulnerable Yellow Jacket pass defense.
Dalton: Georgia Tech 30, Colorado 24
Georgia Tech is walking into what will be a raucous environment to start the season. However, the Yellow Jackets have more constants on their offense right now than a Colorado squad that lost its quarterback, leading rusher and top four receivers this offseason.
Auburn Tigers (-2.5) at Baylor Bears (Friday, 8 PM ET, FOX)
Storyline to know: Two sleeper playoff contenders square off
Both Auburn and Baylor are seen as dark horse teams for the College Football Playoff in 2025. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Tigers currently have the 19th-best odds (+400) to make the playoff, while the Bears sit at 25th (+500).
The winner of this game establishes themselves as a true contender to crash the 12-team field, while the loser falls behind the eight ball after just one week.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Max): Can Auburn’s revamped passing game take advantage of a vulnerable Baylor pass defense?
Auburn had a relatively average passing game in 2024, placing 56th in EPA per pass. However, the Tigers could be far better in 2025 after making some key additions through the transfer portal. Auburn has our No. 2 receiving corps in college football and is the only school with two of PFF’s top-10 wide receivers in Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. (fifth) and returning sophomore Cam Coleman (sixth). The Tigers also have a top-10 offensive line and a new quarterback in Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. While the former five-star recruit earned just a 57.7 PFF passing grade as a sophomore, the Sooners had one of the worst supporting casts in college football last season.
Baylor had issues with opposing passing attacks last year. The Bears were just 116th in team PFF coverage grade and 111th in team PFF pass-rushing grade. Making matters worse is the fact that the Bears lost their top-two coverage defenders (Lorando Johnson and Devin Lemear) and both of their starting edge rushers in Steve Linton and Garmon Randolph.
Matchup to watch when Baylor has the ball (Dalton): Can Sawyer Robertson punch back if Auburn gets aggressive in pass defense?
If Baylor is going to get its passing game going against the Tigers, the Bears are going to need to be better when opponents use an aggressive approach against them.
Last season, Robertson posted an excellent 84.7 PFF passing grade against teams ranked outside the top 90 in PFF coverage grade. But, in five games against teams inside the top 90 —
including four inside the top 50 — Robertson posted a middling 59.9 PFF passing grade with four big-time throws and 11 turnover-worthy plays.
Two themes stand out in those games that could be a factor when Robertson faces Auburn. The first is that Robertson struggled against the blitz last season, notching a 65.5 PFF passing grade and below-average accuracy metrics. That was exacerbated in losses to Colorado, Iowa State and LSU. Teams that blitzed Robertson more often generally forced him into poor throws.
Second, Robertson had a tough time throwing into man coverage last season. In those scenarios, he earned just a 62.2 PFF passing grade while completing just 49.2% of his passes. The challenge this week will be facing an Auburn unit that ran the second-highest rate of man coverage in the SEC and blitzed quarterbacks more than 40% of the time in 2024.
Predictions
Arnold should feel rejuvenated with this supporting cast, and the Tigers’ passing attack finds plenty of success against the Bears.
Baylor would be wise to slow this game down with Bryson Washington and its run game. The Bears’ struggles in pass defense last season could be ominous if Auburn’s dynamic receivers find their rhythm.
Storyline to know: The two national title favorites square off
Saturday’s game between Texas and Ohio State pits the No. 1 team entering the season against the defending national champions. The Longhorns (+550) and Buckeyes (+600) have the best odds to win the national championship this season, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas enters 2025 with its first preseason No. 1 ranking in program history and is the first No. 1 team to ever enter Week 1 as an underdog. This game not only projects as the biggest in Week 1, but arguably the biggest of the entire college football regular season.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Dalton): Arch Manning vs. Caleb Downs and Ohio State’s coverage unit
Amidst all of the pageantry that comes with the rematch from last year’s epic College Football Playoff Semifinal game, it’s the Texas quarterback who played just one snap that night who will be the center of attention in Columbus.
Manning will be making his third career start with as much hype as possible. His last name certainly attracts viewership, but Manning played very well in spot duty last season. Across 233 total snaps, Manning earned an outstanding 88.0 overall PFF grade, flashing his passing prowess and athleticism on the ground. Regardless of snap count, Manning and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt were the only quarterbacks in the FBS to earn 80-plus PFF grades as a passer and as a runner last season.
Of course, Manning will be tasked with facing a terrific Ohio State coverage unit led by Caleb Downs, the best defensive player in the nation. Ohio State ranked 24th in the country in PFF coverage grade last year and gave up explosive completions at the 10th-lowest rate in the nation. Downs, who is the second-highest-graded safety in the nation since the start of 2023, is sure to see a fair amount of new Longhorns tight end Jack Endries.
Downs and the Ohio State secondary could be under additional stress if the Buckeyes can’t get pressure on Manning. North Carolina transfer edge defender Beau Atkinson is the only Ohio State player who generated at least 20 pressures last season. Among quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks in a clean pocket last season, Manning ranked 11th with a 90.7 PFF passing grade.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): The best receiving corps in the country against the best secondary in the country
Grab your popcorn. This is easily the most star-studded matchup in Week 1 and might be the best of the entire season.
While Ohio State will be breaking in a new quarterback in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, he has plenty to work with. Jeremiah Smith isn’t just the best receiver in college football; he’s the best player in college football. As just a true freshman, he was the most valuable receiver in the nation, according to PFF WAA. The cover athlete of EA Sports College Football 26 led the Power Four with 15 receiving touchdowns and trailed only Tetairoa McMillan in receiving yards (1,311) in 2024. Ohio State also added Purdue transfer Max Klare, my third-ranked returning tight end. His 684 receiving yards in 2024 lead all returning Power Four tight ends this season. Many are also projecting Carnell Tate to be a first-round pick in 2026.
Texas’ secondary features our No. 4 safety and No. 6 cornerback in Michael Taaffe and Malik Muhammad, respectively. Taaffe was the sport’s fourth-most-valuable safety last year, according to PFF’s wins above average metric, and trailed only Downs among returning safeties. Likewise, according to that same metric, Muhammad is the fourth-most valuable returning Power Four corner since 2023.
Predictions
Max: Texas 27, Ohio State 24
In a matchup between No. 1 and No. 3, the Longhorns prevail as they have far fewer questions than the defending champs.
Dalton: Texas 27, Ohio State 23
Two stacked teams with inexperienced quarterbacks will battle it out, but we’ve seen more of Arch Manning than Julian Sayin. Ohio State will also be breaking in two new coordinators. Texas starts its season with a massive road win.
Storyline to know: Two programs looking to keep the good times rolling despite significant questions
Both Tennessee and Syracuse enjoyed immense success last season, but each enter 2025 with plenty of skeptics regarding whether they can reach similar heights.
The Volunteers made the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff last year before losing to the eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round. Tennessee’s offense faces a massive rebuild in 2025. Gone are top-10 quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the SEC Offensive Player of the Year in running back Dylan Sampson, the Volunteers’ top three receivers and four starting offensive linemen. Head coach Josh Heupel will need to work some magic to keep Tennessee in the playoff hunt.
Despite never being a head coach before, Fran Brown hit the ground running in his first year at Syracuse. The Orange finished with a 10-3 record and No. 20 in the final AP poll, their best season in six years. But, Syracuse lost the nation’s leading passer in quarterback Kyle McCord, its top three receivers, its leading rusher in LeQuint Allen and still has significant questions defensively.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Dalton): How quickly can Tennessee establish its run game?
Given the turmoil surrounding the team’s quarterback situation this offseason, Tennessee is likely to ride its defense and running game to success this season, as the Volunteers did for most of last year. They should have an opportunity to do so in this game against a Syracuse team with a depleted defensive line.
The Orange retained just one defensive lineman from last season who played at least 100 run-defense snaps and earned at least a 70.0 PFF run-defense grade — edge defender Denis Jaquez Jr. Otherwise, their highest-graded run defender from last season is linebacker Gary Bryant, who played at South Dakota in 2024.
The Volunteers have a group of offensive linemen that generally struggled last season, but the team carries a solid stable of running backs, including incumbents DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis along with Duke transfer Star Thomas. Bishop recorded an 82.4 PFF rushing grade and over six yards per carry last season. Lewis produced a solid 74.3 PFF rushing grade of his own. Thomas ranked fourth in the ACC with 47 missed tackles forced.
If Tennessee can lean on its patented power run game, the Vols can stave off the need for Joey Aguilar to attack the best part of Syracuse’s defense — a solid secondary.
Matchup to watch when Syracuse has the ball (Max): Steve Angeli and the Orange’s weapons against the Volunteers’ secondary
It’s no secret that Syracuse lost a lot from what was one of the best passing attacks in America last season. Quarterback Kyle McCord is now with the Philadelphia Eagles after breaking the ACC single-season passing yards record last year (4,779). The Orange also waved goodbye to their top three receivers. However, Syracuse can still have a successful passing attack in 2025. Steve Angeli recorded an impressive 82.3 overall PFF grade as Notre Dame’s backup quarterback last year. Darrell Gill Jr. has a lot of potential as a rising junior wideout after tallying a combined 335 receiving yards in the final three games of the season. Texas transfer Johntay Cook II was a former five-star recruit at wide receiver, and tight end Jamie Tremble was a four-star from the 2024 class.
Even though Tennessee will likely be without superstar cornerback Jermod McCoy in this game as he recovers from a torn ACL in January, the Volunteers should once again have a very strong pass defense. Tennessee returns three other starters to its secondary in cornerback Rickey Gibson III, safety Andre Turrentine and slot corner Boo Carter. The Volunteers also have a top-15 edge defender in the country in Joshua Josephs, who was one of three Power Four edge rushers last year with 85-plus PFF grades as a pass rusher and run defender. He could have a lot of success against a Syracuse offensive line that will be starting four transfers.
Predictions
Max: Tennessee 31, Syracuse 21
Both teams have to break in new pieces on offense, but at least the Volunteers should be able to rely on a strong defense. The same cannot be said for Syracuse, which could struggle to make stops in this game.
Dalton: Tennessee 34, Syracuse 13
Tennessee certainly has offensive question marks, but its talented defense should be able to handle Syracuse after the Orange lost their record-setting quarterback, leading rusher and four highest-graded receivers.
Storyline to know: Two programs seeking to bounce back from a disappointing 2024
It got ugly for Florida State in 2024. Despite entering the year as the No. 10 team in the preseason AP poll, the Seminoles finished with just a 2-10 record. That marked the third-worst record in program history and the worst since 1974.
Head coach Mike Norvell now enters a pivotal sixth season with two new coordinators and plenty of incoming transfers to help him turn this program around. One of those transfers, quarterback Tommy Castellanos, has been pretty confident this offseason heading into Week 1’s clash with Alabama. “They don’t have Nick Saban to save them,” he said in an interview with On3. “I just don’t see them stopping me.”
On the other hand, the Crimson Tide lost four games in 2024 in their first season with Kalen DeBoer leading the program. The last time Alabama lost that many games in a season was in 2007, Nick Saban’s first year at the helm. The Tide should be very optimistic about 2025, though, with arguably the nation’s best defense returning in addition to some star power on offense.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): How will Ty Simpson look in his first career start?
Ty Simpson has been remarkably patient in receiving his shot at becoming a starting quarterback. He sat on the bench for three years at Alabama despite entering Tuscaloosa as a five-star recruit.
The redshirt junior will be making his first start against Florida State and has a terrific supporting cast around him. Head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb are two of the brightest offensive minds in the sport. On top of that, the Crimson Tide have PFF’s top-ranked offensive line in the nation and a superstar at wide receiver in sophomore Ryan Williams.
Simpson will have to go on the road in a hostile environment at Florida State, which added a top-10 cornerback in Jeremiah Wilson this offseason and hired a new defensive coordinator in Tony White, whose Nebraska defense was 26th in EPA per play last year.
Matchup to watch when Florida State has the ball (Dalton): Can Tommy Castellanos’ legs give Alabama problems in the run game?
Alabama’s defense struggled the most last season when opponents presented it with a legitimate rushing threat at quarterback and an effective option game. Alabama allowed at least 50 rushing yards to quarterbacks in five games last season and lost three of those games. The two victories were a two-point triumph over South Carolina and a win over USF that was a one-score game with six minutes remaining.
When handling an option concept in those games, the Crimson Tide allowed six yards per carry and nearly a 20% explosive run rate. The rushing ability of Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos, supplemented by new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy play calling, should be Alabama’s top concern heading into this matchup.
Castellanos’ mobility has allowed him to rack up the eighth-most rushing yards in the nation over the past two seasons, excluding sacks. He also ranks seventh in explosive runs and 11th in missed tackles forced in that time frame. In 2023, he finished second behind Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with 1,222 rushing yards. Alabama would be wise to play disciplined football against Castellanos on the ground and force him to win with his arm.
Predictions
Max: Alabama 35, Florida State 14
The Crimson Tide are simply the more talented team on both sides of the ball and should roll the Seminoles as long as Ty Simpson can execute the offense.
Dalton: Alabama 35, Florida State 20
As long as Alabama can somewhat contain Castellanos on the ground and its young quarterback stays composed, the Crimson Tide should roll as the far more talented team in this game.
Storyline to know: Who’s the real Death Valley?
Saturday night’s game between Clemson and LSU pits two programs whose stadiums are known as “Death Valley”. LSU head coach Brian Kelly added kerosene to the fire this offseason when he referred to Clemson’s version as “Death Valley Jr,” while Clemson star edge defender T.J. Parker responded by saying, “They can have their opinion. We’ll settle all that on August 30.”
Aside from the two Tigers seeking to claim bragging rights on their collective nickname, these are two programs who many believe can compete for a national championship in 2025 thanks in large part to two Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback in Cade Klubnik (Clemson) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU).
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): Can LSU’s new-look offensive line hold up against the best defensive line in America?
LSU wielded one of the better offensive lines in college football in 2024 but had four of its five starters from that unit selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, including the No. 4 overall pick in left tackle Will Campbell. The lone returning starter from that unit, DJ Chester, was the seventh-lowest-graded center in the Power Four last year (49.5) and will likely be moving to left guard.
The Tigers did add a couple of solid players in the transfer portal in guard Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and center Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech), who each earned 76-plus PFF pass-blocking grades last season. LSU’s two projected starting tackles, Tyree Adams and Weston Davis, have played a combined 162 snaps in their collegiate careers so far.
That could be a major issue considering Clemson enters the season with PFF’s No. 1 defensive line in college football. Two projected top-10 picks in defensive tackle Peter Woods and edge defender T.J. Parker spearhead the Tigers’ defensive front. Woods is my top returning interior defender and leads all returning Power Four defensive tackles in PFF run-defense grade (89.7) and pass-rush win rate (14.9%) since 2023. Also, Parker is my No. 3 edge rusher and led all returning Power Four edge defenders with 12 sacks last season. He was one of only three in that same group who earned 80.0-plus PFF grades both as a pass-rusher and run defender.
Garrett Nussmeier was solid under duress last year with the 24th-best PFF grade under pressure. But, he’s not much of a threat with his legs and likes to deliver from a clean pocket. If LSU can’t give him time, it could be a long night for its offense.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): Clemson’s aerial attack vs. LSU’s revamped coverage unit
LSU’s downfall over the past two seasons has been its inability to prevent explosive plays in the passing game. Since the start of 2023, LSU ranks 54th out of the 68 Power Four teams with a 70.4 PFF coverage grade. The Tigers also rank among the bottom 20 in that group in explosive pass rate allowed and reeled in just 15 interceptions, the fifth-fewest in the Power Four.
LSU is hoping that multiple impact transfers can improve the team’s secondary. Virginia Tech transfer cornerback Mansoor Delane posted at least a 66.0 PFF coverage grade in each of the past three seasons. Safety Tamarcus Cooley recorded an 80.0 PFF coverage grade at North Carolina State last year. Fellow safety A.J. Haulcy led the Big 12 with five interceptions while earning an 85.5 PFF coverage grade at Houston in 2024.
Those new additions have a daunting task facing Cade Klubnik and Clemson’s dynamic passing game. Klubnik owns the highest 2024 PFF passing grade (87.7) of any returning starting quarterback in the FBS. Moreover, his 93.9 PFF passing grade on 10-plus yard throws was the sixth-best among Power Four passers with at least 50 such attempts. The five players ahead of him were all selected in this year’s NFL Draft.
Clemson also returns its top three wide receivers — Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. Williams is an excellent slot threat who led the ACC with a near-perfect 99.7 deep PFF receiving grade last season. Wesco is an explosive playmaker who averaged over 17 yards per catch last season. Moore’s 6-foot-3 frame allowed him to lead the team with an 86.3 PFF receiving grade on 10-plus yard targets last season.
LSU will need its secondary to find rapport in a hurry in order to slow down Klubnik and his excellent receivers.
Predictions
Clemson’s defensive line dominates LSU, up front while Cade Klubnik and his elite weapons prove to be too much for LSU’s new-look defense to handle.
Clemson’s elite defensive line should give it a major advantage in the trenches against an LSU team with four new starters on the offensive line. Suspect protection around Nussmeier and a lack of balance for LSU will give Clemson a massive Week 1 win.
Storyline to know: Two programs hoping that a transfer quarterback will lead to a bounce-back campaign
Both Utah and UCLA had disappointing introductions to their new conferences. The Utes entered 2024 as the highest-ranked Big 12 team at No. 12, their second-best opening ranking in program history. However, the Utes went on to have their first losing campaign since 2013 with a 5-7 record.
Utah’s passing attack ultimately tanked its season, as it finished with the worst passing grade in the Power Four (48.4) and had four different quarterbacks start games. New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier should provide some stability there, as he was the sixth-highest-graded quarterback in the FBS last year (89.9) as only a sophomore.
UCLA’s first year in the Big Ten wasn’t nearly as successful as its final three in the Pac-12. After three-straight eight-win seasons from 2021 to 2023, the Bruins fell to 5-7 this past season. They have some hope to make a bowl game in 2025 thanks to the addition of Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava, PFF’s No. 9 quarterback in the country entering the year.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Utah’s dominant offensive line against UCLA’s shaky defensive front
Utah will likely rely on its run game in 2025 with one of the nation’s best runners at the quarterback position in Dampier and one of the best offensive lines in America.
The Utes enter 2025 with PFF’s No. 2 offensive line in college football and very easily could’ve been first. Spencer Fano is our top returning offensive tackle in college football after a stellar sophomore season at right tackle for the Utes. He led all FBS tackles with a 92.7 overall PFF grade and 93.6 PFF run-blocking grade this past season. On the opposite side at left tackle is Caleb Lomu, who’s also seen as a potential first-round pick. Leading the interior is Tanoa Togiai, who was third among Power Four guards in both overall PFF grade and PFF run-blocking grade last season. Utah also returns starters at center and right guard in Jaren Kump and Michael Mokofisi.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, UCLA’s defense was just 97th in team PFF run-defense grade last season (72.1), and four of its players from the front seven were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. That includes a pair of second-round picks in linebacker Carson Schwesinger and edge defender Oluwafemi Oladejo.
Matchup to watch when UCLA has the ball (Dalton): How quickly can Nico Iamaleava adjust to his new environment?
The most fascinating storyline at UCLA this season is how quickly quarterback Nico Iamaleava and first-year offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri can figure out how to optimize Iamaleava’s skillset. UCLA’s offense last season was dramatically different than either at Tennessee or Indiana, respectively, last season. For Iamaleava in particular, the contrast is stark.
First, there is a chance that the Bruins’ offense could be less balanced than Tennessee’s, meaning Iamaleava has less support from the run game. Tennessee ran the ball 50.2% of the time last season, the 34th-highest rate in the FBS, while ranking 28th in yards per carry. Meanwhile, UCLA ran the ball at the ninth-lowest rate in the nation while sitting 115th in yards per attempt.
Second, no FBS team ran a higher play action pass rate (58.1%) last season than the Volunteers. UCLA utilized play action on just 17.6% of its pass plays, the lowest in the Power Four and third-lowest in the FBS. So far in his career, Iamaleava has earned an outstanding 89.2 PFF passing grade when using play action, but a more pedestrian 65.6 PFF passing grade without it.
Lastly, with or without play action, Tennessee’s passing game is predicated on completing passes deep downfield. The Volunteers’ 11.0-yard average depth of target ranked fifth in the Power Four and 19th in the nation. But UCLA’s 7.3-yard average depth of target slotted 130th in the FBS. Perhaps Iamaleava’s arm talent will allow the Bruins to take more deep shots, but it’s unlikely they will do so with the same proclivity.
Iamaleava hasn’t been with the program long, but he and this UCLA offense will need to figure out how to maximize his talents in a hurry if they want to have success against a very good Utah defense.
Predictions
The Utes impose their will in the run game while Iamaleava struggles in a much different offense than what he’s used to. The Tennessee transfer will have to adjust to a worse supporting cast against an elite defensive mind in Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham.
There is a potentially huge mismatch in the trenches between Utah’s offensive line and a UCLA defensive front that lost several of its best players. This game could get ugly if the Utes find their rhythm early.
Storyline to know: Battle of the Beamers
Sunday’s game between the Gamecocks and Hokies will be the first time that these teams have met since 1991. In that meeting, Virginia Tech was coached by the legendary Frank Beamer. He was the Hokies’ head coach for 29 years and was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2018.
His son, Shane, played for him at Virginia Tech from 1995 to 1999 and spent five seasons under his dad as an assistant head coach from 2011 to 2015. Shane is now the head coach at South Carolina and led the Gamecocks to a top-20 finish in the AP Poll last year, their best final ranking since 2013. Shane has legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations this season, which starts with beating the program that has a statue of his father outside of its stadium.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): Can the Hokies limit big plays from LaNorris Sellers?
Sellers is the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback in college football. No signal-caller in America has the physical tools that he possesses. In fact, the closest physical comparisons are that of Anthony Richardson and Cam Newton, who were both top-five picks in their respective drafts. Sellers’ 95.2 deep PFF passing grade ranked fourth among all FBS quarterbacks, and he led all Power Four quarterbacks with 47 forced missed tackles on the ground despite weighing 242 pounds.
Sellers is a home run hitter, but he also strikes out far too often. His 70.9 PFF passing grade on attempts under 20 yards ranked just 87th among qualified quarterbacks. Additionally, Sellers’ 4.6% turnover-worthy play rate was the second-highest in the SEC, and his 11 fumbles were the second-most among Power Four quarterbacks.
Virginia Tech had one of the 30 most efficient defenses in college football last season in terms of EPA per play. However, the Hokies were just 85th in explosive pass rate allowed (14.9%) and sat 89th in PFF coverage grade (69.7). They also struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in 2024, as seven of the 14 opposing quarterbacks they faced gained at least 50 rushing yards last season.
If the Hokies can force Sellers to win from the pocket in the short and intermediate ranges of the field, they have a chance at an upset.
Matchup to watch when Virginia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Virginia Tech’s run game vs. South Carolina’s inexperienced defensive front
Virginia Tech’s offensive foundation is its multifaceted run game that features a diverse option attack led by quarterback Kyron Drones. While the Hokies lost star running back Bhayshul Tuten to the NFL Draft, the team retained Jeremiah Coney and brought in Bowling Green transfer Terion Stewart and Coastal Carolina transfer Braydon Bennett.
Ultimately, Drones will facilitate things as a 235-pound tackle breaker capable of ripping off explosive runs. Over the past two seasons, Drones has recorded an excellent 82.0 PFF rushing grade, a top-20 mark among qualified FBS quarterbacks. He is also tied for 17th among that group with 49 missed tackles forced and ranks 13th with 46 explosive runs.
The Gamecocks’ defense was spectacular last season, but its run defense lagged slightly behind its pass defense. The unit did rank 28th in PFF run-defense grade in 2024, but South Carolina posted just a 4-4 record when allowing at least 140 rushing yards. Beamer’s squad also lost several starters along its defensive front, including the team’s top three linebackers and four of its top-five defensive tackles.
If Virginia Tech finds its rhythm early on the ground and is able to complement it with Drones’ exceptional play-action passing, the Hokies have a real chance of winning.
Predictions
Max: South Carolina 28, Virginia Tech 21
The Hokies are unable to keep Sellers from making some huge plays with his elite tools, and Shane Beamer takes down his alma mater.
Dalton: South Carolina 31, Virginia Tech 30
South Carolina’s young defensive front is going to be tested by a dynamic Hokies rushing attack. In the end, the Gamecocks’ cohesion in the passing game and Virginia Tech’s lack of proven receiving threats prove to be the difference in a tight game.
No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Sunday, 7:30 PM ET, ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Notre Dame survive its first two games with a new quarterback?
After making the National Championship Game in 2024, Notre Dame has hopes of another deep playoff run this season. While it should once again be able to rely on an elite ground game and coverage unit, the Fighting Irish will be breaking in a brand new quarterback in redshirt freshman CJ Carr. The No. 6 quarterback recruit from the 2024 class has only taken four snaps in his career so far.
He’ll need to get up to speed quickly considering Notre Dame’s first two games are against a pair of top-20 teams in No. 10 Miami and No. 19 Texas A&M. If the Fighting Irish lose just one of those contests, they may need to win out the rest of the season, considering only one other currently ranked team is on their schedule (No. 25 Boise State).
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Notre Dame’s offensive line against Miami’s defensive line
When the Fighting Irish take the field, there promises to be a war in the trenches. Notre Dame has a top-10 offensive line in the country with an exciting tackle duo in Aamil Wagner and Anthonie Knapp. Wagner is my No. 5 tackle in the country and finished his junior year as the third-most-valuable Power Four tackle, according to our WAA metric. Knapp started 15 games at left tackle as a true freshman and earned a 69.2 PFF run-blocking grade. Billy Schrauth is a returning starter at left guard and only allowed one combined sack and hit on 363 pass-blocking snaps in 2024. However, the Fighting Irish will likely be without a potential star at guard Charles Jagusah after he suffered a broken arm in July.
Meanwhile, Miami carries a top-10 defensive line in college football. Rueben Bain Jr. is back to lead the Hurricanes’ defense in his junior season and is a projected top-15 pick in this upcoming NFL Draft. My No. 4 edge defender in the country, Bain is third among returning Power Four edge defenders with 73 pressures since 2023, while his 16.9% pass-rush win rate in that span is fourth. On the opposite side is Akheem Mesidor, whose 86.1 overall PFF grade since joining Miami in 2022 is second among returning Power Four edge defenders.
Notre Dame’s offense features the best running back in college football in Jeremiyah Love, but even he can’t shine unless his offensive line creates holes for him to run through. And considering Carr will be taking his first career dropbacks on Sunday, the Fighting Irish will want to keep him as comfortable as possible in clean pockets so he can attack a Miami secondary that was the Achilles’ heel of the entire team in 2024.
Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Dalton): Carson Beck vs. Notre Dame’s stellar man coverage
Notre Dame’s secondary features multiple star players, including cornerback Leonard Moore, who excel in man coverage. The group’s ability to suffocate opposing wide receivers into submission was one of the hallmarks of last season’s national runner-up squad.
Only Purdue deployed a higher rate of man coverage last season than Notre Dame, which did so 58.3% of the time. The Fighting Irish led the nation with a 92.9 PFF man coverage grade. They also paced the FBS with 13 interceptions when deploying man coverage while allowing just a 51.7% completion percentage.
Meanwhile, Miami’s new quarterback, Carson Beck, completed just 54.7% of his passes against man coverage last season. Part of those struggles were due to a set of wide receivers with their own issues, but Beck was inferior against the better defenses on Georgia’s schedule when they deployed man coverage — namely Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas.
The Hurricanes also lost their top six leaders in receiving yards from last season’s outstanding passing attack. In fact, nobody in their refurbished receiving corps accrued at least 500 receiving yards last season. LSU transfer CJ Daniels struggled last season after a productive 2023 season at Liberty. BYU transfer Keelan Marion is known more for his kick return abilities. Miami will need to find answers through the air against an elite Notre Dame secondary.
Predictions
Max: Miami 24, Notre Dame 23
It’s hard to get a read on this game considering both offenses have their own question marks with new quarterbacks. Since I know what to expect from Carson Beck and the Hurricanes are at home, I’ll take Miami to win in a game that should go down to the wire.
Dalton: Notre Dame 23, Miami 16
Notre Dame’s defense is the best unit in this game and perhaps the worst matchup for Beck and Miami to face in the Hurricanes’ first game together. If the Fighting Irish can run the ball and limit the need for CJ Carr to come through in big situations, then they will grind out one of their trademark hard-nosed victories.
Storyline to know: Bill Belichick’s first game as a collegiate coach
Twenty-nine schools changed head coaches this offseason. None made a bigger splash hire than North Carolina. The Tar Heels replaced the legendary Mack Brown with an even bigger legend in Bill Belichick, widely regarded as the greatest head coach in NFL history. He won a record six Super Bowls during his time with the New England Patriots, and his 333 total victories are the second-most all time.
Belichick was never even an assistant coach at the college level, so it’ll be interesting to see how his style translates. Still, it feels like a worthy gamble from North Carolina as it tries to emerge as a contender in the ACC.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Dalton): Will North Carolina be able to defend the middle of the field?
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover was quietly one of the better passers in the country last season. His 84.3 PFF passing grade ranked 13th among FBS qualifiers, while his 27 passing touchdowns tied for third in the Big 12. He’s a pocket passer who prefers to strike down the middle of the field.
Hoover led the Power Four last season with 166 attempts targeting the middle third of the field. He was very effective in doing so, generating a 91.5 PFF passing grade. Only Devon Dampier, Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart earned a higher passing grade on those throws. TCU’s offense is filled with a variety of slants, posts and seams designed to slice through the heart of opposing secondaries.
North Carolina struggled to defend that area of the field last season. The Tar Heels ranked 79th in the nation in PFF coverage grade when the middle third of the field was targeted. However, UNC will be playing with a revamped secondary that includes new starting safeties Gavin Gibson and Coleman Bryson. Furthermore, Steve Belichick’s Washington Huskies were much better at defending the middle of the field last season, so there could be some improvement both on the field and from the new coaching staff.
Matchup to watch when North Carolina has the ball (Max): Which new face will step up for the Tar Heels?
The Tar Heels have an exciting new starting quarterback in Gio Lopez, who posted an 81.4 overall PFF grade as a redshirt freshman at South Alabama last season. However, North Carolina has essentially a brand new supporting cast for him to work with. The Tar Heels must replace a first-round running back in Omarion Hampton, who was both their leading rusher and third-leading receiver. North Carolina’s top-two pass catchers, J.J. Jones and John Copenhaver, are also no longer with the program. All of North Carolina’s replacements seem to be in-house too, aside from wide receiver Aziah Johnson — who only gained 276 receiving yards at Michigan State last season.
On the flip side, TCU finished 2024 with the fifth-best PFF coverage grade in college football (90.5). The Horned Frogs return their superstar from that secondary in safety Bud Clark, who led all FBS safeties with a 90.1 PFF coverage grade last season. TCU also has two other returning starters in its secondary. Beyond that, cornerback Elijah Jackson transferred in from Washington after a solid career there.
Predictions
Max: TCU 31, North Carolina 24
While Bill Belichick on the sidelines is exciting, there are simply too many unknowns for the Tar Heels right now for me to feel comfortable picking them against a potential Big 12 sleeper like the Horned Frogs.
Dalton: TCU 34, North Carolina 24
If Steve Belichick is as aggressive deploying man coverage as he was with Washington, he could force Hoover into some mistakes. However, North Carolina’s offensive uncertainty makes it tough to project a victory for the Tar Heels.
