• Head Coach: Shane Steichen (third season)
• PFF projected win total: 7.8
• 2024 Record: 8-9 (second in AFC South)

Biggest strength: Pass Catchers

Colts head coach Shane Steichen certainly has no shortage of weapons to deploy in the passing game. Slot receiver Josh Downs finished 2024 with an 85.1 PFF receiving grade (11th best in the NFL), Michael Pittman Jr. has earned at least a 70.0 PFF receiving grade in four straight seasons, Alec Pierce ranked 11th in the NFL with a 99.1 deep PFF receiving grade last year, and Adonai Mitchell and rookie tight end Tyler Warren also figure to be factors.

The Colts possess a potentially dynamic arsenal of weapons if they can figure things out at quarterback. 

Biggest weakness: Quarterback

The Colts have an open competition brewing between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones at quarterback. Richardson has posted a 58.7 PFF passing grade while completing just 50.6% of his passes across his two NFL seasons. Jones bests Richardson by a decent margin in those categories, but he isn’t as athletic and owns the lowest big-time throw rate of any quarterback with at least 700 dropbacks since 2021. 

Quarterback spotlight: Anthony Richardson

• 2024 PFF Grade: 62.2
• Key Stat: 60.2% adjusted completion rate (lowest among qualified QBs)

Richardson is at a crossroads in his third NFL season. His production hasn’t matched his tantalizing physical talent, and due to multiple injuries, he has logged fewer than 400 dropbacks across his first two NFL seasons. Richardson is a dynamic runner, and his 5.9% big-time throw rate is a top-five mark in the NFL over the past two seasons. However, his 4.5% turnover-worthy play rate is subpar and his 50.6% completion rate is the lowest in the NFL among passers with at least 150 dropbacks.

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Offensive player: T Bernhard Raimann

Raimann parlayed another excellent season into a well-deserved $100 million contract. Over the past two seasons, he ranks seventh among qualified tackles in PFF overall grade (87.9). He’s one of just five players in that group to earn an 80.0-plus grade as a run blocker and a pass protector, joining Jordan Mailata, Trent Williams, Lane Johnson and Terron Armstead. Raimann is a budding superstar and one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

Defensive player: DI DeForest Buckner

Buckner has been one of the most consistent interior defenders in the NFL for the past nine years. Across his five years in Indianapolis, he ranks fifth at the position in PFF overall grade (90.1), trailing only Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, Dexter Lawrence and Cameron Heyward. Buckner, Jones and Lawrence are the only three qualified defensive tackles to earn at least an 80.0 PFF overall grade in each of the past three seasons.

Rookie to watch: TE Tyler Warren

Colts tight ends ranked 29th in PFF receiving grade last season. That should change with 14th overall pick Tyler Warren in the fold. Warren took college football by storm last season at Penn State, pacing the Power Four with a 93.4 PFF receiving grade, 693 yards after catch and 19 missed tackles forced. His versatility and ability to dominate with the ball in his hands should be a perfect fit in Shane Steichen’s offense.

Downs is the rare wide receiver who plays only in the slot in three-receiver sets and has been fantasy relevant, thanks to a high target share and the Colts’ high 11-personnel rate. Downs had long stretches over his first two seasons where he was a consistent fantasy starter, but injuries have made his quality of play take a turn for the worse.

If Daniel Jones wins the Colts’ quarterback job, Downs has a chance to improve his fantasy value. However, the Tyler Warren addition could mean a notable decrease in target share for Downs, just depending on how quickly Warren earns a receiving role in the offense. Downs’ multiple injuries over the first two seasons could also make it more likely that he will miss time. He should be drafted as a fantasy backup due to his upside to be a fantasy starter if things are going right.

Best bet: TE Tyler Warren to go over 500.5 receiving yards (-110)

Although the Colts have many mouths to feed in the passing game, Warren will see more than enough work to surpass this receiving yardage line. As PFF’s Dalton Wasserman highlighted, the rookie will play a crucial role in the Colts’ RPO game. With 693 yards after catch last season, he showcased his talent for making things happen with the ball in his hands.

Bottom line

Indianapolis has enough weapons on offense to compete for a postseason berth. The team’s quarterback situation needs to be ironed out, though, and the defense will be adjusting to life under new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. If neither Richardson nor Jones emerges as a viable starter, the organization is likely to focus on a new option in the 2026 NFL Draft.