Sports doctor gives his thoughts on Matthew Stafford’s back soreness

Matthew Stafford has one of the lengthiest injury histories among active NFL players

It’s not often that I share updates from doctors on social media with respect to Los Angeles Rams players; however, because updates from the team itself have been kept at a minimum, it seems apt to look to other sources.

Dr. Jesse Morse took to X to give his thoughts on Matthew Stafford’s back injury. While all should be taken with a grain of salt, Morse does have an impressive sports resume. He’s CEO of the InjuryExpertz website that maintains injury histories and player analysis. On X he has over 135,000 followers with posts that often surpass over 20,000 views.

Here are a few nuggets from Morse:

Matthew Stafford has the longest injury history on record

InjuryExpertz claims to be the “largest and most accurate NFL injury database”. Of all the players they have on file, Morse says Stafford’s injury log is among the lengthiest.

It’s worth noting that Stafford suffered broken spinal bones twice during his time with the Detroit Lions. In 2022—his second in Los Angeles—he was shutdown around the midpoint of the season with a spinal cord contusion following multiple reported concussions. Stafford’s mostly been healthy over the last two years, at least to the extent of missing games. There will always be wear and tear that must be managed throughout the season.

In Morse’s words, “the greatest predictor of future injuries is past injuries… once Stafford starts to ramp up, he really won’t get a break for more than a couple days until at least January.”

Even if Stafford plays, he could be limited

One red flag noted by Morse is that the team is using a “week-to-week” timeframe with Stafford instead of “day-to-day”.

Per Morse, “Sounds like the team is being extra cautious, but I definitely have some concerns in terms of pain and mobility. Especially since it’s already bothering him and he really hasn’t done any significant work on the field or been able to be hit yet.”

The Rams ask a lot from the quarterback position. Even if Stafford is able to start and play from Week 1 forward, the offense may look different and Sean McVay’s play sheet could be limited.

It lends me to ask the following questions. These are not predictions but merely things to consider. The answer may be “no” on several if not all, but in the aggregate the more Stafford is unable to do the more the Rams could be hamstrung by the injury:

• Will Stafford be able to move well on designed movement, such as rollouts on play action?
• Do designed backfield motions (by WR’s, etc.) create a concern in terms of twisting and turning? This is an important element of the offense but requires a certain amount of mobility for play action, etc.
• Will Alaric Jackson start at left tackle Week 1 and be able to stabilize blindside protection?
• Would the Rams feel comfortable on deep drop backs with Stafford? This could reduce the effectiveness of the traditional passing game particularly in the longer ranged area of the field.
• Could Stafford suffer diminished arm strength or accuracy? His down-to-down accuracy has fallen off from his career peaks, and any further decline could spell major trouble.
• How many hits can Stafford take? A Week 1 matchup against the Houston Texans is not favorable in this regard with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Rams will also play the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens in the early going.

Final thoughts

It doesn’t seem as if we will see Stafford on the field soon, though ultimately only the team knows where the quarterback stands.

Stafford will do his own individual workout on Monday while the rest of the roster has a “jog thru” in advance of the joint practices with the Dallas Cowboys.

Per McVay, Stafford is performing “unloaded running on the treadmill, sometimes it might even be walking.” That update doesn’t exactly scream that the quarterback is ramping up in anticipation of returning to the field. Being able to walk is positive, but it’s concerning that he’s not jogging without his body weight. There are many intricate movements required to replicate playing quarterback. The motion is often not linear and that’s before you account for the added possibility that Stafford could be sacked by a 300+ lbs. defensive lineman on any play.

This is me being honest. It’s not intended to incite panic or stir the pot. It sounds like Stafford has a ways to go before he returns to football activities. There is a finite amount of time until the regular season. He’s already slated to miss the entirety of training camp at LMU and is going on Week 3 of absences.

With each passing day the panic meter seems to be ticking upwards.