• Williams excelled on tight-window, middle-of-the-field throws: He made 10 big-time throws on middle-of-the-field throws as a rookie — the fourth most in the NFL.

• The Bears committed to bettering Williams’ supporting cast: New head coach Ben Johnson and a revamped offensive line will give Williams a better chance to thrive in 2025.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

Expectations are always high for the No. 1 overall pick in a draft. And things don’t always necessarily go as planned. Such was the case for Caleb Williams, who led the Chicago Bears to a 5-12 record in his rookie campaign and dealt with his head coach being fired midway through the season.

While Williams shares some of the blame, that type of turmoil makes it very difficult for a rookie quarterback to succeed.

Williams might not have had the rookie season that Bears fans wanted, but he still showed flashes of why he was the draft’s top choice.

Caleb Williams’ Highest-Graded Games in 2024

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The Good

Middle-of-the-field throws

How a quarterback performs over the middle of the field is a great indicator of how well they are seeing the field. The windows are smaller, thus requiring the pass to always be on time. Williams recorded a 91.7 PFF passing grade on throws over the middle of the field in his last season at USC — the sixth-best mark in the FBS. In his rookie season, he showed some flashes of that ability, making 10 big-time throws on middle-of-the-field throws — the fourth most in the NFL. It’s good to see young quarterbacks test what they can and can’t get away with in the NFL, and Williams shows no fear when throwing into tight windows downfield.

Williams has always had the arm talent and velocity to fit balls into those spaces; it’s just matter of being willing to take the chance. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson’s offense thrives over the middle of the field, so keep an eye on how Williams adjusts to the scheme.

Playmaking against the blitz

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with unique blitzes in year one. NFL defenses are just a different beast than college defenses. Williams has a unique ability to avoid pressure in the backfield and make plays, but he’s also willing to take hits to make throws.

Williams’ 78.9 PFF overall grade against the blitz would have been the best for a rookie quarterback since 2016 if it wasn’t for Jayden Daniels‘ outstanding season. That still doesn’t diminish Williams’ performance against the blitz. He was very good and consistently made defenses pay when blitzing him, tallying 11 big-time throws — tied for the fourth most in the NFL.

The Bad

Accuracy

Williams’ accuracy was probably the most frustrating area of his game in 2024. He didn’t necessarily struggle in that area in college, ranking 15th in the FBS in both adjusted completion percentage and rate of uncatchable throws. However, his 73.4% adjusted completion rate this past season tied for 29th, and his 23.4% rate of uncatchable throws ranked 43rd.

That would normally be a huge red flag, but for someone like Williams without a history of being inaccurate, it’s hopefully just an outlier. He missed far too many easy throws and will have to clean things up next season to take that leap.

Taking Sacks

Arguably, Williams’ biggest area of concern in college was his inability to avoid sacks and play hero ball. He was constantly looking to scramble and extend plays, and while it led to some miraculous plays, it was always going to be difficult to replicate in the NFL. In a not-so-surprising twist, that style of play led to some real struggles. While his offensive line had some rough moments, Williams was charged with 17 sacks, the most in the NFL.

Williams has had to learn the hard way that NFL defenders are extremely athletic and he can’t simply make them miss. He will have to realize that an incompletion or a throwaway is not the worst result when the other option is a devastating loss of yardage or a turnover. He too often put his offense in difficult spots by losing precious yards on early downs.

The Bottom Line

Caleb Williams’ rookie season might not be one that we’ll look back on and say it was a great success, but year one doesn’t make or break an NFL quarterback. Williams flashed incredible talent, in addition to some frustrating moments typical of a rookie quarterback. He was involved in a tumultuous season, including the firing of his offensive coordinator and head coach before the season ended.

The Bears responded with a massive commitment to upgrade their offensive line this offseason and a widely touted hiring of one of the NFL’s best play-callers, Ben Johnson, as their head coach. Williams should have a far better supporting cast in his sophomore season as he continues to develop.