Fantasy Football: Data-backed takes for all 32 NFL teams
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- De’Von Achane is poised to thrive as a receiver: He led all running backs in receptions (78), receiving yards (592), touchdowns (six) and yards after the catch (661) in 2024, and that skill set should propel him to a top-three fantasy finish in 2025.
- TreVeyon Henderson could lead New England’s backfield sooner rather than later: Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a rough 2024 campaign. Meanwhile, the rookie Henderson didn’t fumble once over his final two seasons at Ohio State and posted a 92.5 PFF overall grade — the best among Big Ten running backs.
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Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes
Fantasy football season is in full swing. Whether you’re preparing for a draft or organizing your dynasty starting lineup, here is one take to consider for all 32 NFL teams.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals: The Marvin Harrison Jr. season we expected in 2024 comes in 2025
Harrison entered the league with the most fantasy hype around a rookie we’ve seen since Saquon Barkley or Bijan Robinson. However, he did not quite meet expectations in 2024, which led to a dip in his 2025 ADP; he is currently going as the WR16.
There is a clear path to a top-10 season for Harrison in 2025, but he’ll need to get on the same page with quarterback Kyler Murray. Harrison saw 114 targets last season, but only 69 were deemed catchable. Harrison earned a 93.3 PFF overall grade against single coverage last season, which tied for fifth among all wide receivers and ranked first among rookies.
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London finishes as a top-five PPR WR
London is currently going as the WR9 in fantasy drafts. In three games with then-rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. last season, London ranked first among wide receivers in PFF receiving grade (90.5), targets (37) and receiving yards (352), and second in yards per reception (16.0).
Heading into his first full season with Penix, London is set to dominate fantasy leagues in 2025.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews is one of the best value picks at TE
After the playoffs in 2024, trade rumors swirled around Andrews, dropping his ADP, which has not yet recovered. Now that Andrews is confirmed to be sticking with the Ravens through at least the start of 2025, his ADP is far too low:
- 2024: TE6
- 2023: TE15 (10 games, TE4 PPG)
- 2022: TE4
- 2021: TE1
Andrews has finished first or second in targets on the Ravens in all but the 2023 season, when he played only 10 games (still ranked third in targets). While Isaiah Likely is emerging, we’ve seen that when Andrews is on the field, Lamar Jackson is going to feed him.
Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid leads the team in targets
Kincaid endured an injury-riddled 2024, appearing in just 13 games, yet still finished second on the Bills in targets (71). He ranked eighth among tight ends in PFF receiving grade, caught 44 of his 47 catchable targets and finished sixth in average yards after contact (6.3).
Notably, Kincaid posted the second-highest target rate at the position (33.0%) when Josh Allen had a clean pocket, and the fifth-highest target rate (24.5%) on Allen’s first reads.
Carolina Panthers: Tetairoa McMillan goes over 100 targets in year one
The Panthers invested early draft capital into the Arizona product, and it appears they believe he can take Bryce Young to the next level. Young, who is coming off a hot finish to 2024, is looking to take his momentum into 2025 with a new WR1.
McMillan saw 130 targets in 2024 and 117 targets in 2023, posting 87.0 PFF receiving grades in both seasons. Following a shaky rookie season from Xavier Legette, McMillan has everything he needs to lead the Panthers’ wide receiver room in his rookie season.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams finishes as a top-10 fantasy QB
Williams finished as the QB16 in 2024 despite major offensive line issues; he was sacked a league-high 43 times and pressured 225 times. That unit has been completely revamped heading into 2025 with the additions of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson.
New Bears head coach Ben Johnson also brings a strong track record of quarterback production, having helped Jared Goff finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in all three of his seasons as the Lions’ offensive coordinator: QB6 in 2024, QB7 in 2023 and QB10 in 2022.
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase does not repeat as the WR1
Chase is being drafted at the 1.01 pick this season, and deservingly so after his triple crown in 2024. However, the PPR WR1 has not repeated since Antonio Brown did it in 2014-2015, a decade ago.
This is less of a knock on Chase, who will undoubtedly finish within the top five wide receivers and will be worth the cost at ADP, and more of following a trend: that it is very difficult to be the best wide receiver in fantasy football in back-to-back years.
Cleveland Browns: David Njoku is the only Browns player you should start weekly
The Browns are poised to be one of the most frustrating offenses in the NFL this season, and potential bright spot Quinshon Judkins is now facing legal issues. Still, Njoku has consistently been one of the top tight ends in the NFL.
He has finished as a top-11 tight end in each of the past three seasons, and peaked at a TE6 finish with a full season of Joe Flacco. If Flacco wins the starting quarterback job, Njoku will thrive; if he doesn’t, Njoku is still a trustworthy target in the Browns’ offense. Last season, Njoku had a 23.8% target rate (sixth).
Dallas Cowboys: Jaydon Blue is the Cowboys RB to roster
The Cowboys’ backfield is wide open heading into 2025, and all three running backs on the roster project as late-round dart throws in fantasy. The competition largely comes down to Jaydon Blue and Javonte Williams.
Blue is the preferred target due to his receiving upside. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 149 rushing attempts last season, racked up 517 yards after contact and led all SEC running backs in receiving yards (365) and receiving touchdowns (six). He also ranked second in the conference in receptions (41) and yards after the catch (400), trailing only former teammate Quintrevion Wisner.
Denver Broncos: Evan Engram bounces back with Denver
It was an injury-riddled, PPR TE33 season for Engram in 2024. He is still being drafted as the TE8 for 2025, after signing with the Denver Broncos, suggesting a bounce-back campaign is in order.
The Broncos’ tight end room was quiet last season, logging only 483 yards (30th in NFL) and ranking dead last in PFF receiving grade (48.4). In comes Engram, who since 2022 has amassed 234 receptions (second most), 2,094 yards (fifth most) and 1,163 yards after the catch (sixth most). Engram will look to slot in immediately as the safety blanket for quarterback Bo Nix and could easily outperform his ADP this season.
Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown is still worthy of a first-round selection
St. Brown has been a fringe first-round selection by ADP this season, going anywhere from pick Nos. 10-13, depending on the format. But he has given fantasy managers no reason to believe that he is not worthy of a round-one selection. Since 2022, St. Brown has finished as a top-seven wide receiver in every season, including as the WR3 for the past two years.
Since 2022, St. Brown has the fifth-highest target rate in the NFL (27%), ranks seventh in yards per route run (2.29) and places fourth in touchdowns (28). Even with a new offensive coordinator for 2025, St. Brown is still Jared Goff’s top receiving target and should be going in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Green Bay Packers: Tucker Kraft is the receiving threat to roster this season
While everyone is trying to figure out which Green Bay wide receiver to target in fantasy drafts this season, Tucker Kraft is slipping through the cracks as the TE12. Just last season, Kraft finished as the TE10, forcing 15 missed tackles (tied for most among tight ends), recording 17 receptions of 15-plus yards (tied for fourth most) and posting a 142.6 passer rating when targeted (first). Jordan Love may have to rely on Kraft this season. Don’t overthink this one.
Houston Texans: Fade the Texans’ backfield
Joe Mixon looks to lead the way in the Texans‘ backfield heading into his age-29 season. He has handled the second-most rushing attempts among active players (1,816, behind Derrick Henry). Houston also added Woody Marks and Nick Chubb into the equation and lost a number of pieces. There are several question marks on an offensive line that was already poor last season (66.3 PFF overall grade, 26th in NFL).
The newly crowded room, the tread on Mixon’s tires and the offensive line uncertainty should scare you off from taking swings on the Texans’ backfield.
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. is being drafted too late
Pittman is currently being drafted as the WR51 in fantasy, although he could bounce back to the WR25-30 range this season. In 2024, Pittman finished as the WR41 and averaged only 10.4 fantasy points per game. In 2023, he finished as the WR13 and averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game. While Josh Downs is the new, exciting receiver whom people are looking forward to watching in Indianapolis this season, Pittman will still only be 27 years old in 2025 and can easily reclaim the WR1 crown in the Colts’ offense.
Since 2023, Pittman has logged 178 receptions (tied for ninth most), 30 contested catches (fifth most), 779 yards after the catch (15th most) and a 24.5% target rate (tied for 17th). While he may not crack the top 15 again like he did in 2023, he should outperform his WR51 ADP.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence bounces back in a major way
Lawrence is coming off a disappointing QB27 finish, and the Jaguars addressed his needs in the offseason by bringing in guard Patrick Mekari and center Robert Hainsey, along with wide receivers Dyami Brown and Travis Hunter. All of that plus second-year standout Brian Thomas Jr. has this offense set up for fireworks.
Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice picks up where he left off pre-injury
While a suspension may be looming for Rashee Rice, it remains a fluid situation. Before his season-ending injury in 2024, Rice was the PPR WR3 in his three fully healthy games.
During that span, he tallied 24 receptions (most among wide receivers), 288 yards (second most), two touchdowns, eight forced missed tackles (most), seven receptions of 15-plus yards (tied for second most) and an 86.2 PFF receiving grade (fourth).
If you have the wide receiver depth early in fantasy drafts to take a swing on a guy who could miss 4-6 games this season, Rice could prove to be a league winner in 2025.
Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty dominates touches
Jeanty is being drafted toward the middle or end of the first round of fantasy drafts right now, and deservingly so. He is set up to be a workhorse in year one, with underperforming running backs all around him in the Raiders’ backfield.
In 2024, Jeanty forced 152 missed tackles, the most in a season in college football, and earned a top-ranked 95.3 PFF overall grade.
Los Angeles Chargers: Najee Harris isn’t a problem for Omarion Hampton
Hampton, like Ashton Jeanty, was selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, after racking up 2,330 yards after contact over the past two seasons (second most among running backs).
The competition is veteran running back Najee Harris, who is currently dealing with an eye injury. Even without considering the injury, the data doesn’t stack up well for Harris’ taking control of the backfield on his one-year contract. Since 2021, he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry (51st among running backs with 300-plus carries) and 2.9 yards after contact per attempt (30th) with a 17.7% stuff rate (37th).
Harris’ contract and efficiency data point to this backfield being Hampton’s before long.
Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both finish as top-15 WRs
This isn’t a bold take for Nacua, who is being drafted among the top four wide receivers in fantasy right now. Adams, however, has a WR15 ADP and is a polarizing fantasy option.
Adams is coming off a WR11 season in which he saw passes from Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew and Aaron Rodgers after going from the Raiders to the Jets midseason. Regardless of what team he is on, he demands the ball. Adams finished 10th in targets last season among wide receivers (135), averaged 12.5 yards per reception and racked up 26 contested catches.
Adams should have a stable quarterback situation in Los Angeles with Matthew Stafford and belongs as a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane finishes as a top-three RB
It’s no secret that Achane is currently the most dangerous receiving threat at the running back position. Last season, Achane led all running backs in receptions (78), receiving yards (592), touchdowns (six) and yards after the catch (661).
If Tua Tagovauloa can manage a fully healthy season in 2025, and teams continue to cover the deep ball to limit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, there is no reason Achane won’t finish as a top-three fantasy running back.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones performs closer to his 2024 finish than his 2025 ADP
Jones ranked as the PPR RB14 last season yet is being drafted as the RB27 this season, behind names such as Isiah Pacheco, Kaleb Johnson and David Montgomery.
While Jones may not be a flashy name in the fantasy world, he has always been consistent in fully healthy seasons:
- 2024: RB14
- 2023: 11 games played
- 2022: RB9
- 2021: RB11
The data showed that Jones didn’t slow down last season, with his 46 forced missed tackles and 69 first downs both ranking 12th among running backs. At this ADP, consider drafting Aaron Jones and taking Jordan Mason later on in case of injury.
New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson leads the team in touches
The rookie Henderson is on track to take over New England’s backfield.
Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a rough 2024 campaign, placing as RB28 in PPR points per game after recording six fumbles and earning a career-worst PFF overall grade. Enter Henderson, who brings the exact opposite: explosiveness, efficiency and ball security.
The rookie didn’t fumble once over his final two seasons at Ohio State, averaged 7.0 yards per carry and posted a 92.5 PFF overall grade — the best among Big Ten running backs. With a new coaching staff in place, it’s only a matter of time before Henderson emerges as the lead back in New England.
| Player | PFF Overall Grade | Fumbles | Yards/Carry | Yards After Contact/Attempt |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 70.1 | 6 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 88.4* | 0* | 7.0* | 4.4* |
*Henderson’s 2024 numbers at Ohio State
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave blows his ADP out of the water
Olave is currently being drafted as the WR34, only a year removed from a WR15 finish. While injury is a concern, Olave is still one of the better wide receivers in the NFL when healthy. For his career, he is averaging 2.21 yards per route run, which ranks 13th, and owns a 25.4% target rate (10th).
When Olave is on the field, he demands the football, and with rookie Tyler Shough the favorite to win the starting quarterback job in New Orleans, he is going to need to rely on his veteran star wide receiver.
New York Giants: Cam Skattebo leads the backfield earlier than expected
The Giants leaned on a committee in 2024, splitting carries between Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. Neither back reached 1,000 rushing yards, and both earned PFF rushing grades in the 60s — solid, but not great.
In comes Cam Skattebo, who led the Big 12 in nearly every major rushing category in 2024. He posted a 94.6 PFF rushing grade, 1,712 rushing yards, 103 missed tackles forced and 1,202 yards after contact. He added value as a receiver, too, earning a 79.8 PFF receiving grade on 44 receptions for 543 yards. His all-around skill set was on full display in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, where he racked up 143 rushing yards, 111 yards after contact, two rushing touchdowns and even a passing touchdown against Texas.
With elite production, more draft capital than Tracy and a versatile profile, Skattebo is poised to seize control of New York’s backfield earlier than expected.
New York Jets: Justin Fields returns to fantasy dominance
Fields was the fantasy QB5 last season with the Steelers from Weeks 1-5, when he was the primary starter, and that should continue into 2025 with the Jets.
Since coming into the league in 2021, Fields has earned a 92.1 PFF rushing grade, which ranks fourth — behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Pretty good company.
The stars are aligning for Fields to dominate in fantasy: his rushing upside, the rebuilt New York Jets offensive line and his reunification with college teammate Garrett Wilson. Fields is currently going as the QB14 in fantasy drafts, and he should have top-10 expectations with a top-five ceiling if he can stay healthy.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley comes back down to earth
While Barkley will almost certainly still be a top-five fantasy RB in 2025, expect some regression.
He recorded six rushes of 50-plus yards in 2024, the most for a runner in a season since 2015, and racked up 10 rushes of 30-plus yards, tied for the most in a season (Adrian Peterson) since 2010. While Barkley is set to have another great fantasy season, expecting him to rip off 30- and 50-yard runs at that rate for two seasons in a row is unreasonable.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson is a deep league sleeper
With DK Metcalf coming in via trade, the WR1 spot in Pittsburgh is locked up. However, the WR2 role is wide open. Wilson will be competing with Scotty Miller, Robert Woods and others after his injury-riddled rookie campaign kept him off the field for all but five snaps. Wilson shined at Michigan in 2023, earning an 89.4 PFF overall grade against single coverage, along with a 25.2% target rate.
With a new quarterback coming into the fold, the Steelers’ WR2 competition is one to keep an eye on.
San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall emerges as a reliable fantasy WR2
Pearsall was promising in his limited time on the field as a rookie, hauling in 31 of his 33 catchable targets (93.9%) for 400 yards and three touchdowns. With Deebo Samuel leaving via an offseason trade, the second-year wide receiver has a big opportunity to step up in 2025.
Brock Purdy is set to rely on the steady hands of Pearsall, who in the past three seasons (dating back to college) has dropped only three of his 190 targets.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III rebounds
Walker’s path is clear: stay healthy and beat out your ADP. Walker has had health concerns the past two seasons, and they have hindered his fantasy production. But when he is on the field, he dominates. Just last season, Walker notched a 37.2% forced missed tackle rate, which ranked first among all players.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving builds on breakout rookie year
Irving exploded down the stretch in 2024, finishing with 1,125 rushing yards despite not opening the year as the Buccaneers’ lead back. Over the first five weeks, Rachaad White slightly out-touched him, but from Week 6 on, Irving took full control, out-carrying White 161 to 93.
It wasn’t just the volume that made Irving so valuable in fantasy. He was one of the most efficient runners in the league, earning a 90.1 PFF rushing grade and averaging 5.4 yards per carry. He forced 62 missed tackles on 224 attempts, showing both consistency and explosiveness.
Now locked in as Tampa Bay’s clear RB1, Irving enters 2025 with the role, talent and efficiency to take another leap. He’s already proven he can thrive with a heavy workload, and fantasy managers should expect another strong year from one of the league’s most dynamic young backs.
Tennessee Titans: Tyjae Spears outscores Tony Pollard
At first glance, this may seem far-fetched. Pollard finished as the PPR RB21 last season, while Spears finished as the PPR RB42. However, rookie quarterback Cam Ward’s arrival and the offense’s likely more balanced direction will cut into Tony Pollard’s touches and allow opportunity for Spears, who is the better receiving back. Weeks 12-18 last season showed it:
| Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards per Reception | Receiving TDs | Drops |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 0 | 5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 13 | 136 | 10.5 | 1 | 1 |
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels takes the leap from top five to top three
Daniels finished as the QB5 last season as a rookie, and the Commanders spent this offseason acquiring Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil, a first-round tackle and more offensive help in the draft. Daniels is set up to see even more success in 2025.
In 2024, Daniels finished as the QB4 in PFF overall grade (83.0) and made only 11 turnover-worthy plays, the fourth fewest in the NFL. On the ground, he finished with an 88.2 PFF rushing grade (fifth), 891 rushing yards (second most) and 40 forced missed tackles (second most).
