• Are Travis Kelce’s best games behind him? Despite notching a team-leading 131 targets (third-most among all tight ends) last season, Kelce recorded career lows in PFF receiving grade (70.5), receiving yardage (823) and touchdowns (three).

• Aaron Rodgers is aggressive in the red zone: The Steelers’ new quarterback is more than comfortable throwing when the field gets condensed in the red zone. Last season, the Jets were the only team to eclipse 70% in red-zone pass play percentage.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

While some players are just getting started, each new season could mark the last for many of the NFL’s aging stars. Hungry to prove there’s more in the tank, these veterans are the players to watch in NFL betting markets for the 2025 season. 

Odds sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook

• Line: 725.5 receiving yards
• PFF Projection: 632.75 receiving yards

Kelce has produced one of the best careers the NFL has seen at the tight end position, but the cracks have begun to surface in his game. Despite notching a team-leading 131 targets in 2024 (third most among tight ends), Kelce recorded career lows in PFF receiving grade (70.5), receiving yardage (823), touchdowns (three), receptions of 15 or more yards (15) and yards per route run (1.43) during the regular season. 

The most alarming part is that the Chiefs spent much of the season dealing with injuries to key targets in Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. While there are questions regarding a potential suspension for Rice, Brown is set to return as a key piece of Kansas City’s offense. Pair that with the continued development of Xavier Worthy, and it’s appearing more like Kelce’s target share will diminish in 2025.  

As PFF’s Nathan Jahnke highlighted, Kelce’s receiving numbers have been on the decline for the past two seasons. Although he still managed to surpass this 725.5-yard line in each, that came due in large part to his 248 targets, the most of any tight end since the start of 2023. Without the volume to prop up his yardage, the veteran is likely to fall well below this line and much closer to his 630-yard projection.

Pick: Under 725.5 receiving yards (-114)

• Line: 23.5 passing touchdowns
• PFF Projection: 24.3 passing touchdowns

The recent history of quarterback play in Pittsburgh hasn’t been as explosive as the Steel City faithful would like. The tandem of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields totaled just 21 touchdowns last regular season, and the combination of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph in 2023 mustered only 13. In fact, the last Steelers quarterback to surpass this 23.5-passing-touchdown line in a season was Ben Roethlisberger in 2020, when he tossed 33. 

Luckily for the Steelers, Rodgers still knows how to whip it around at 41 years old. He has never produced fewer than 25 passing touchdowns in a season in which he played at least 10 games. 

One reason for this comes down to Rodgers’ willingness to throw when the field gets condensed in the red zone. Last season, the Jets were the only team to eclipse 70% in red-zone pass play percentage. By comparison, the Steelers were one of 12 teams to run it more than 50% of the time. With quality red-zone targets like D.K. Metcalf and Jonnu Smith — both of whom have generated 74.0-plus red-zone PFF receiving grades over the past three seasons — expect that trend to follow Rodgers to Pittsburgh. 

The Steelers’ defense strives to take away the football, nearly doubling the Jets in total turnovers forced in the 2024 regular season, which means more opportunities for Rodgers with a short field.

Pick: Over 23.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

• Line: 775.5 rushing yards
• PFF Projection: 701.5 rushing yards

The move to Minnesota last year resulted in one of Jones’ best seasons in the NFL, as he produced career highs in carries (255) and yardage (1,138) during the regular season. However, the Vikings’ backfield added Jordan Mason this offseason, and he may stand in the way of a repeat performance for the 30-year-old back. 

While Jones is a quality runner, his volume has propped up his production in recent years. In 2024, he saw more than 67% of the Vikings’ designed carries and finished in the top 10 in attempts during the regular season. Yet, his 4.5 yards per carry average ranked just 22nd among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts. Conversely, Mason’s 5.2 mark ranked ninth.

And the impressive metrics for Mason don’t stop there. He popped off as the headliner in the 49ers‘ backfield with Christian McCaffrey out early in the year. Through Week 7, Mason generated the most explosive runs (19) and the second-most missed tackles forced (32) in the NFL while also producing a breakaway rate that ranked in the 94th percentile. 

It will be difficult for Jones to fend off Mason from carving out a sizable portion of the workload. PFF’s projections indicate that Mason could overtake the veteran on the ground while Jones takes on a larger role in the receiving game. Should that be the case, Jones is unlikely to hit this 775.5-yard rushing line, a mark he has never reached in a season with less than 170 attempts.

On the other hand, that would also indicate that Mason is being underpriced by oddsmakers. With a projection of more than 870 yards, the new Vikings back projects well over his 575.5-yard rushing line. His 295-yard rushing line differential is the largest of any back this season.

Pick: Under 775.5 rushing yards (-110)