Has Matthew Stafford gone from being underrated to overrated?

Is the NFL starting to rank Rams QB Matthew Stafford too highly?

When quarterback Matthew Stafford joined the Los Angeles Rams at the beginning of the 2021 season, he may have been one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. Stafford was a player that everyone knew had the talent, but never played on a team with a supporting cast good enough to help him against quality opponents. Coming to Los Angeles, there were serious questions on whether Stafford could win the big game.

Throughout Stafford’s career, he has mostly been thought of as a fringe top-10 quarterback. The NFL has typically ranked him inside the top-10, but rarely near the top-5. That was despite the fact that he typically had top-5 stats. In 2015, Stafford ranked eighth in yards and touchdowns, but in Mike Sando’s NFL QB Tier Rankings that are voted on by various NFL personnel, he ranked just 14th. At the time, as Sando said, “Some voters think Stafford has become another Jay Cutler — talented, but too flawed to belong in the upper tiers.”

While 14th was on the lower end, it is a good visualization of how the NFL viewed Stafford at the time. Since then, he’s consistently been viewed as a fringe-top-10 quarterback. In 2016 and 2017, Stafford finished eighth and ninth. He did rank 11th in 2019, but Stafford’s average ranking from 2017 until 2021 was 8.4.

These particular seasons would have been thought of as Stafford’s prime and he was considered a fringe top-10 quarterback by NFL personnel. However, since joining the Rams, that has shifted drastically and heading into 2025, Stafford is generally considered closer to the top-5 than he is the top-10.

Following his first season with the Rams, Stafford garnered a No. 7 ranking in Sando’s tier list. Said Sando, “A good team helped Stafford after bad Detroit teams dragged him down for years.” Following a poor 2022, Stafford still was ranked 10th and heading into last season, he officially entered the top-5, ranking fifth. In ESPN’s latest quarterback rankings that also polls various NFL personnel, Stafford ranked sixth.

While Stafford is getting the credit that he deserved for years in Detroit, it’s fair to wonder if the needle has shifted too much in the other direction. Using a cumulative ranking of major quarterback stats such as EPA per dropback, completion percentage over expectation, success rate, passer rating, PFF, DYAR, and DVOA, Stafford ranked 16th among qualifying players. He had an average ranking of 15.63.

From a statistical standpoint, it’s hard to say that Stafford is close to being a top-five quarterback. The Rams quarterback hasn’t eclipsed 25 touchdown passes or 4,000 yards since his inaugural season in Los Angeles. He’s had more top-5 flashes and has lacked overall consistency.

Stats certainly aren’t everything, and at times lack context. It’s very difficult to separate quarterback performance from the overall health of the offense. CJ Stroud was a bottom-10 quarterback in several metrics last season. Nobody would say he was a bottom-10 quarterback given the state of the Houston Texans offensive line.

Stafford also isn’t the only quarterback who may be ranked too highly. Patrick Mahomes once again was rated as the top quarterback. However, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson topped MVP voting, and statistically, Mahomes was more of a fringe top-10 quarterback than the top-3.

There are certainly reasons for Stafford’s inconsistencies such as injuries to the offensive line and the fact that the Rams missed Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for a portion of last season. That is all true and something that should be taken into account. Situations for quarterbacks will always matter more than the general media and fans want it to be. At the same time, Stafford also isn’t blameless in that.

This is not to say that Stafford is overrated, but it is interesting to see how the overall view surrounding the quarterback has shifted despite the stats being dramatically different. Again, Stafford threw for nearly 4,300 yards and 30 touchdowns and had a 97 passer rating in 2015. The NFL ranked him 14th among quarterbacks heading into the 2016 season. Meanwhile, Stafford threw for 3,700 yards last season with just 20 touchdowns and a 93.7 passer rating. The NFL currently has him ranked sixth.

At the end of the day, Stafford is still a very respected quarterback around the NFL and playing for the Rams and with Sean McVay certainly helps. It also doesn’t hurt that Stafford has been able to have the playoff and big game success that he never had in Detroit.

Despite being 37 years old, the Rams quarterback still ranked 10th in big-time throws and hero throw percentage last season. He still has the ability to push the ball down the field into tight windows. Stafford still shows up in the big moments as he was third in game-winning drives in 2024.

Still, it’s interesting to see the elevation of Stafford’s reputation in recent years, which feels more tied to circumstance than production. He’s no longer the overlooked quarterback in Detroit, but instead seen as a major reason for the recent success in Los Angeles. As long as Stafford continues to put the Rams in a position to play in and win big games, that reputation should hold even if the stats don’t necessarily match it.