• Brian Thomas Jr. found his rhythm: Over the last seven weeks, Thomas consistently scored fantasy points and had the third-most points among wide receivers during that stretch.
• Start with two wide receivers: After Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are off the board, the strength of the draft is at wide receiver from Picks 6-15.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 13 minutes

This perfect draft strategy for 10-team, single quarterback, redraft, PPR fantasy football leagues uses a consensus of current average draft positions (ADPs) from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! to deliver a round-by-round guide for managers picking first overall. To find more information about any player mentioned in this article, click on the player’s name to find their fantasy football player profile.

Last updated: Thursday, July 17

Round 1, Pick 7: Draft a wide receiver

Anyone picking from the middle of the first round to the end is either picking their top available wide receiver or a running back like Ashton Jeanty or Derrick Henry. There are six wide receivers ranked third to eighth, where seemingly no two analysts have the receivers in the same order. All of them could end up as the top overall wide receiver if everything goes well, but all of them are going through some changes with some combination of new play-callers, new quarterbacks and new competition for targets. In Brian Thomas Jr.’s player profile, I detail why I believe he is the best option of the group, but there are legitimate reasons to pick a different receiver. 

Top Target: Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. had a strong start to his rookie season and ended it among the league’s best fantasy receivers. In his final seven games, he gained at least 13 PPR points each week and averaged 21.5 points, third behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. He played at least 84% of his team’s offensive snaps in all but one of those games. The team added Travis Hunter in the draft, and he will see a decent target rate, but typically, two great wide receivers can co-exist as long as there isn’t much more competition for targets. Thomas led all wide receivers in yards per route run out of the slot with 3.12, and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen has found a lot of success with his slot receivers in the past. An increased role in the slot could lead Thomas to remain among the top wide receivers in fantasy football.

Possible Targets: Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, Drake London

Round 2, Pick 14: Draft a wide receiver

Ten wide receivers have a strong case to finish among the top three at the position, speaking to the strength of the position. During the first half of the second round, there should be a few of those options still available. It’s possible to end up with a great team starting with two wide receivers, so it makes sense to continue adding the best wide receivers available.

Top Target: Drake London

Drake London was the eighth overall pick in the 2022 draft, but failed to be a regular fantasy football starter in his first two years due to limited quarterback play, Arthur Smith’s run-first offense, and a rotation at wide receiver. In 2024, the Falcons were still a run-first team thanks to Bijan Robinson, but he was on the field more often, the quarterback play was much better, and he played in the slot more often. London was playing like a top-three fantasy wide receiver in three games with Michael Penix Jr. last season, but Penix was also throwing to London at an unsustainable rate. Penix’s quality of play will determine if London can finish among the top 10 fantasy wide receivers.

Possible Targets: A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Rashee Rice

Round 3, Pick 27: Draft a quarterback

The teams picking in the first half of the first round can pick a quarterback and tight end in the second and third or third and fourth rounds, so they are set at both positions for the season and can spend the rest of the draft focusing on running back and wide receiver. Teams picking in the back half of the draft shouldn’t follow that strategy simply because Kenneth Walker III is too good a value to pass up in the fourth round. Therefore, it’s fine to go quarterback or tight end here and wait at the other position. It’s best to pick up the top-ranked player at either position, which in this case is at quarterback.

Top Target: Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game last season in games he both started and finished, which ranked third-best among all quarterbacks. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the two quarterbacks ahead of him, but they both set career lows in rushing attempts per game. Those rates typically decline with age. The Commanders gave Daniels significant upgrades with Deebo Samuel Sr. at wide receiver and Laremy Tunsil at left tackle. Those moves could be enough to move Daniels to the top of the quarterback ranks by the end of the season.

Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy

Round 4, Pick 34: Draft a running back

This team has avoided running back in the first three rounds. The only way to end up with two top-20 options is by picking running backs in each of the next two rounds. That simply means it makes sense to pick the best running back available.

Top Target: Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker III has graded among the best running backs in the league, including a 91.3 rushing grade last season. His 0.42 avoided tackles per attempt last season were the most in PFF’s 19 years of statistics for all running backs with at least 50 carries. The next-most with any player with at least 150 carries in a season was 0.31, which is a tie that includes 2014 Marshawn Lynch and 2020 Nick Chubb. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will have an offense that plays to Walker’s strengths with his zone scheme and will prioritize getting him the football more than last season. However, he’s missed 10 games over the previous three seasons due to injury, and his play was negatively affected in several more while playing through injury. If he can stay healthy, he will have his best fantasy season yet, but staying healthy is a big if.

Possible Targets: Omarion Hampton, Alvin Kamara, RJ Harvey, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard

Round 5, Pick 47: Draft a running back

As mentioned in the last round, to end up with two top-20 running backs, it makes sense to select a second running back with this pick.

Top Target: Omarion Hampton

Hampton should be viewed as one of the top rookie running backs from the last few seasons and a lead running back on a run-heavy team. He averaged at least eight carries of 5 or more yards per game in the previous two seasons. However, the presence of Najee Harris and the lack of receiving potential will likely prevent Hampton from being an immediate top-10 fantasy running back. He will likely be a fantasy starter early on in his rookie season. The more the Chargers change their offense to fit Hampton in terms of more zone runs and more running back targets, the better his fantasy value will be.

Possible Targets: RJ Harvey, James Conner, D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Quinshon Judkins

Round 6, Pick 54: Draft a tight end

In a 12-team league, my general advice at tight end is to draft one early or wait several rounds and then pick two. However, in a 10-team league, it’s easier to acquire a quality starting lineup at running back and wide receiver, making the mid-range QB1s and TE1s more of a value. There is a clear gap between T.J. Hockenson and the rest of the tight ends, so Hockenson is the pick here, knowing there will be plenty of opportunities to stock up on wide receivers and running backs later.

Top Target: T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson was a top-six fantasy tight end in points per game from 2020 to 2023, including a tie for the top overall spot in 2023. He tore his ACL and MCL at the end of 2023. He returned faster than the average player with a similar injury, and understandably didn’t play as much and wasn’t as effective. He will be much further removed from his injury for the 2025 season, but some players never return to the player they were before that injury. Luckily, even if he doesn’t have the same speed, he’s still strong on contested catches, but that won’t command the same target share as he’s had in the past.

Possible Targets: David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid, Colston Loveland, Travis Kelce

Round 7, Pick 67: Draft a wide receiver

After drafting two running backs and two wide receivers, it’s time to add a third wide receiver. There are a few wide receivers with top-15 potential available, while it’s harder to find value at other positions. This includes running back, where there is a clear gap in tiers at running back after those selected in Round 6. This makes wide receiver the clear option for this round.

Top Target: Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan is a prototypical X receiver and one of the best X receivers coming out of college in a long time. His 89.5 receiving grade is the fifth-best among Power-Five receivers 6-foot-2 or taller in the last decade. The only receiver with more receiving yards during that time is CeeDee Lamb. He was selected eighth overall by the Carolina Panthers, and could be their top target earner as a rookie. He joins Dave Canales’ offense, who has a history of his X receivers reaching double-digit touchdowns in both his only season with Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf twice. He is the safest rookie wide receiver option in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Possible Targets: Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin

Round 8, Pick 74: Draft a wide receiver

This is a similar range where wide receivers are the draft’s strength. Running backs like Tony Pollard and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are drafted in this range, but it’s clear they will be sharing their respective backfields with Tyjae Spears and Cameron Skattebo, both of whom are available a few rounds later. Because there are so many running backs fighting for a starting job or in a committee, you can find some options in later rounds while building on wide receivers who have proven NFL success but are more risky due to past injury history.

Top Target: Chris Olave

Olave has the talent to be a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. He scored the 16th-most fantasy points in 2023, and his PFF receiving grade has been at least 82.0 each season. The Saints added Kellen Moore as their head coach, and his slot receivers have been a consistent value in fantasy football. Olave is the wide receiver best suited to line up in the slot. However, Olave has five documented concussions. This makes him both more likely than the typical player to suffer another concussion and more likely to miss significant time if he suffers another one. After Derek Carr’s retirement, the Saints are stuck between three young and unproven quarterback options, which is also working against Olave.

Possible Targets: Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy

Round 9, Pick 87: Draft a running back

After focusing on wide receivers in back-to-back rounds, it’s time to turn back to the running back position. You can ideally draft three backs who are in committees with high upside, and the first comes at this pick.

Top Target: Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren has been a borderline fantasy starter when healthy for the past two seasons and is projected to continue in that role for the 2025 season. His fantasy upside is increased by the possibility of maintaining a significant role over new competition, Kaleb Johnson, primarily in the passing game and potentially in the run game. However, there’s also the risk that he could lose playing time if Johnson outperforms the previous competition, Najee Harris. This leaves Warren’s fantasy value somewhat volatile and dependent on how the competition plays out.

Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cam Skattebo, J.K. Dobbins, Bhayshul Tuten

Round 10, Pick 94: Draft a wide receiver

Round 10 is truly a toss-up. Every draft is different, and various runs on running backs or wide receivers could likely lead to one position being a strength over the other. For this draft, we’ll lean toward wide receiver, as there are still a few players who are expected to be the top wide receiver on their team available, which speaks to the strength of the wide receiver position.

Top Target: Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers went from an undrafted rookie to becoming the top wide receiver for the New England Patriots and then the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s been able to propel himself to a low-end WR2 these last two seasons, despite his situation not always being perfect. The Raiders made several changes to their offense this offseason. The biggest positive for Meyers is the Geno Smith addition, giving Meyers a better quarterback than he’s seen throughout his time as a starter in the NFL. This should lead to a higher touchdown total than last season. However, the team added Ashton Jeanty, which almost certainly will lead the Raiders to run more than last season, leading to Meyers running fewer routes. The Raiders also spent several draft picks on wide receivers who will contribute this season. If they have normal rookie seasons, Meyers is fine, but if someone exceeds expectations, then Meyers could fall down the target pecking order.

Possible Targets: Jauan Jennings, Matthew Golden, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, Darnell Mooney

Round 11, Pick 107: Draft a running back

As mentioned two rounds ago, it would be good to pick a second high-upside running back in a committee. Another difference between 10- and 12-team leagues is that it’s easier to find depth at the running back position. This team has drafted five wide receivers, and it’s hard to find a scenario where you would need more or be able to find one that you would start over the players you’ve already selected. On the other hand, this team has taken more risks at running back, so it can make sense to stockpile running backs at this point in the draft.

Top Target: Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason quickly went from undrafted rookie to the top backup running back for the 49ers, despite the team consistently spending mid-to-late round draft picks on running backs. An injury to Christian McCaffrey allowed Mason to be a starter to begin the 2024 season, and he was sixth in fantasy points per game over five weeks before he started dealing with injuries. Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings, where Aaron Jones Sr. is the main running back. The two will likely be in a committee that includes Mason receiving significant work in rushing situations while Jones gets more in passing situations. Jones is over 30 years old and has dealt with multiple injuries over the last two seasons. While Mason might not score enough weekly to start in fantasy in normal situations, if Jones is dealing with an injury or is showing more signs of age, we could see Jones as a weekly player to start.

Possible Targets: J.K. Dobbins, Bhayshul Tuten, Tyjae Spears, Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson

Round 12, Pick 114: Draft a tight end

While T.J. Hockenson should be a top-five fantasy tight end, he clearly wasn’t 100% after his injury, and there is a chance he doesn’t fully rebound this season. That means it would make sense to prioritize a backup tight end. Luckily, there are a few tight ends with top-10 potential who are still available at this point in the draft.

Top Target: Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid showed promise as a rookie, putting together a stretch of games in the middle of the season with 14 PPR points per game and two games of 80 or more yards to end the regular season. However, he had an entirely forgettable second season, scoring only two touchdowns and never exceeding 55 receiving yards. He ran only 21 routes per game and saw the third-most uncatchable targets at the position. Kincaid dealt with injuries for most of the 2024 season, which likely contributed to his reduced playing time and lack of chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen. While the Bills will likely be winning a lot of games in 2025, leading to a lot of rushing attempts, and still have Dawson Knox, it’s reasonable to expect significant improvement from Kincaid this season.

Possible Targets: Colston Loveland, Dallas Goedert, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely

Round 13, Pick 127: Draft a running back

To balance this team out, it makes sense to pick a running back, as there are a few options available who could potentially be a starter this season.

Top Target: J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins has seen a rollercoaster of a career, battling injuries and changing roles while also showcasing flashes of brilliance. Last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, he posted his best fantasy season with 14.8 points per game, good for 18th. His future with the Denver Broncos is uncertain, as he joins a crowded backfield with varied usage possibilities under Sean Payton’s system, which historically has utilized multiple backs in different roles. Dobbins’ fantasy relevance will largely hinge on how Denver structures its rushing attack and whether he can secure a consistent role, likely on early downs, although he could be lost in a rotation given the team’s running back depth. While his range of outcomes is vast and projecting his weekly production will be challenging, there’s a possibility he finishes as a top-24 fantasy running back in points per game if he can carve out a substantial role.

Possible Targets: Bhayshul Tuten, Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson, Jaydon Blue, Trey Benson

Round 14–18: Fill Depth

Use any additional picks to draft a kicker and team defense if required; otherwise, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.