Who will be the Giants’ left tackle in Game 1?

I love a good horror movie. Classics like “Alien,” “Psycho,” “The Silence of the Lambs” that ratchet up the tension are right up my alley. That said, I got a little sick to my stomach when I saw this headline about New York Giants’ left tackle Andrew Thomas the other day in nj.com:

Courtesy of nj.com

I’m not saying it would be as bad as Norman Bates showing up my bathroom. But the reality – that lisfranc injuries are serious, take a lot of time to heal, and come with no guarantee of returning to play, or returning at the same level of skill as before the injury – is enough to make any Giants fan cover their eyes in horror.

In case you haven’t yet read your March 2025 issue of Orthopedic Reviews, here are the results of a study of basketball players who suffered lisfranc injuries by Ali et al., although the NFL is mentioned as well:

Out of the 22 athletes included in the study, 73% (n=16) returned to play after a Lisfranc injury, while 27% retired from the sport. The average TTR for the athletes who resumed playing was 307 days (10.09 months). The average age of players who returned was 24.6 years, with the NBA having the highest average age of 29.5 years. The incidence of Lisfranc injuries varied across leagues, with the NFL having the highest incidence over a specific time span.

Thomas was injured in the Cincinnati game on Oct. 13, so the start of the 2025 NFL season is close to the average lisfranc recovery time. The Ali et al. study cites a 2016 study of NFL players by McHale et al. in The American Journal of Sports Medicine that concludes

More than 90% of NFL athletes who sustained Lisfranc injuries returned to play in the NFL at a median of 11.1 months from time of injury. Offensive and defensive players experienced a decrease in performance after return from injury that did not reach statistical significance compared with their respective control groups over a similar time period.

So the question of when Thomas will be ready to play is one thing. The scary thing is that second sentence. Only two of the 28 players studied did not return to play, and all 28 were from skill positions rather than the offensive line. There was however a measured decrease in performance, even though the sample size of 28 was too small for it to be statistically significant. The NFL lisfranc injuries studied were from 2000-2010, and maybe if we’re lucky progress in Lisfranc surgery and rehabilitation has occurred since then.

The more troubling thing is that Thomas has only played a total of 16 games in the last two seasons, in addition to missing games early in his Giants career. The Giants should be in better shape this year at quarterback with Russell Wilson to start the season, but Wilson no longer has the mobility he did in his Seattle days, and he tends to hold onto the ball:

Wilson was 12th-highest in the NFL in average time to throw last season. The quarterbacks ahead of him are mostly the youngest, most mobile QBs in the NFL or at least the most physically imposing.

It would thus behoove the Giants to have Wilson’s blind side well protected. Thomas can certainly do the job if fully healthy…but what if he’s not?

Here’s how the offensive tackle situation played out for the Giants game-by-game last season, before vs after Thomas’ injury:

Data courtesy of Pro Football Focus

A couple of notes first:

(1) I use Pro Football Focus’ “allowed pressures” data for the chart above. That metric assigns responsibility for a given pressure to a specific player or players, including the quarterback. Thus the season total does not add up to all the sacks, e.g., since they may have decided that one of the Giants’ quarterbacks held the ball too long, or ran into a sack, etc.

(2) The average PFF pass block grade for before vs. after Thomas’ Game 6 injury is a straight average of those for the individual games. PFF’s full season pass block grade is not a straight average (they don’t reveal their specific methodology), but the difference is not large.

In the chart I am using the pressures and pass block grade provided by PFF for the entire offense, not just the offensive tackles. The interior offensive line certainly had its own issues, and the Giants’ running backs aren’t exactly Pro Bowl-caliber blockers, but generally as the tackles go, so does the play (and health) of the quarterback. That’s what I’m trying to look at – how Thomas’ presence or absence affected the offensive line as a whole. That “remote” effect on the rest of the OL can be because a starter had to move from his position to take Thomas’ place (in this case, Jermaine Eluemunor), thus weakening the position he left, or because a guard had to help out more with a less capable tackle next to him (in this case, Evan Neal, who took Eluemunor’s place).

You can see a very clear difference between the overall performance of the offensive line before vs. after Thomas’ injury – not just in the PFF pass block grades, which are subjective, but in the average sacks, hits, and hurries per game. Other than the Cleveland game, in which Thomas was absolutely undressed by Myles Garrett, the offrensive line pass protected fairly well, with less than one sack per game that they were responsible for, when Thomas and Eluemunor were the tackles.

After Thomas’ injury, it was a merry-go-round at LT. The Giants tried to avoid moving Eluemunor from the right to the left side in mid-season, but Josh Ezeudu was once again not the answer, and Chris Hubbard, once a good offensive tackle, looked washed. Eluemunor finally moved to the left side in the Carolina game while Neal made his first start at right tackle, but Eleumunor promptly got hurt early in the Tampa Bay game and was out for most of three games. During that time the offensive line gave up 19, 22, and 24 pressures, including 11 sacks. Eluemunor came back in Week 15, and he and Neal solidified the line the rest of the season (with now-departed Tyre Phillips starting at right tackle in the final game), with only 9, 12, 5, and 12 pressures, including 4 sacks in those four games.

Here are the allowed pressure “leaders,” so to speak, among quarterbacks last season:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Russell Wilson was third worst in the NFL with 22.6% of pressured dropbacks in which he had some responsibility. Daniel Jones clocked in at No. 12 with 17.2%. The Giants’ left tackle had at least some responsibility for pressure on 31.3% of Jones’ pressured dropbacks, second-most in the NFL…and that was with Andrew Thomas at left tackle for 6 of Jones’ 10 games.

In case you’re wondering, last season Jameis Winston had at least some responsibility on only 12.8% of his pressured dropbacks in Cleveland and had a 2.67 s average time to throw, while Jaxson Dart had some responsibility only 12.3% of the time at Ole Miss and averaged 2.77 s to throw. It’s then not hard to imagine a scenario in which Thomas is not back on the field or is not what he used to be, the pressures are limiting the offense, and Brian Daboll gets frustrated with Wilson’s tendency to hold the ball and turns to one of his other quarterbacks sooner rather than later.

The big question for 2025 is: If Thomas is not ready to go in Week 1, who will start in his place until he can get onto the field?

• Eluemunor is clearly the best option. He had an above-average PFF pass block grade for the season, with on average 20 snaps per pressure surrendered and only four sacks for the season despite switching sides mid-season. He gave up a total of one pressure in the final five games of the season. The problem then would be what to do at right tackle if he moves. At the moment it seems as though Evan Neal’s days as a right tackle are over. Furthermore, Eluemunor was not thrilled about switching sides mid-season even though he performed well when it happened.
• James Hudson III was signed as a free agent to a two-year contract, so he is the most likely to be next man up if Thomas is not ready. Hudson started three games at left tackle in 2024. He didn’t give up any sacks, but he did surrender 7 hits and 7 hurries, reflected in a low 41.5 PFF pass block grade. (He also played 13 snaps at RT against the Giants in Week 3, giving up 1 hurry, and has played RT a decent bit in previous seasons.)
• The Giants also signed Stone Forsythe to a one-year veteran salary benefit free agent contract. Forsythe played six games for Seattle in 2024, starting five, with two sacks, four hits, 29 hurries, and a 41.3 PFF grade. Forsythe played right tackle exclusively in 2024 but has played left tackle as well in previous seasons.
• Marcus Mbow, the Giants’ fifth-round draft pick, started exclusively at right tackle last season at Purdue. He gave up 3 sacks, 1 hit, and 21 hurries for the season, with a 68.0 PFF pass block grade. He did not play left tackle at all in college, so he seems an unlikely candidate.

Admittedly, the options look a bit better than last year, since at least Hudson and Forsythe have considerable NFL experience at tackle (unlike Ezeudu, who played guard exclusively as a rookie and was just thrown in at left tackle in 2023 Game 1 when Thomas got hurt and never showed he could play the position). Ma-a-ybe the Giants can get away with a Band-Aid at left tackle in Game 1, where they will face edge defenders Deatrich Wise (five sacks in 2024) and Dorance Armstrong (10 sacks) in Washington. Not definitely, maybe. In Game, 2, though, it will be Micah Parsons (14 sacks) and Dante Fowler Jr. (11 sacks). If Andrew Thomas isn’t back by then, or if he’s not up to speed, it could get late early (H/T Yogi Berra) for the 2025 Giants.