• Bucky Irving surprised as a rookie, but now the bar is even higher for Year 2: Irving’s emergence as a lead back in Tampa Bay allowed him to finish as an RB2 in 2024, with the expectation now for an RB1 season in 2025.
• Kenneth Walker’s untapped RB1 potential should come to fruition in 2025: As long as Walker can stay healthy, he has the chance to become an RB1 for the first time heading into this season.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes

For the running back position, volume is king and these breakout candidates are expected to see a large workload in 2025, which puts them on a path to fantasy success. With an influx of rookies coming into the league this offseason, there are fewer true breakout candidates at the position this year, though the two chosen for this piece come with high-end expectations this season.

A few qualifiers before diving into this year’s candidates

• Running backs must not have exceeded 250 PPR fantasy points – finished as an RB1 in any previous season.
  • This eliminates Chase Brown from consideration (2024 RB10, 255.0 FF points)
• A significant jump in overall fantasy finish or fantasy points per game is expected, not just an incremental improvement.
• We’re looking for at least 200 PPR fantasy points/12.5 PPR points per game in 2025.
• No rookies. Let’s make things more challenging than that. A list of rookies that will make a fantasy impact in Year 1 can be found here.

Players over the past decade who fit the above criteria before delivering their breakout season

Irving had a great rookie season, so qualifying him as a breakout means the expectation for Year 2 has to be even better. Irving finished as the overall RB15 last season in PPR, and heading into 2025, the belief is that he’ll not just crack the top-12 fantasy running backs this year, but push for much higher than that and compete to be a high-end RB1 this season.

Having control of the backfield from Week 1

Cracking the top-eight running backs or higher starts with a total scrimmage yards target of around 1,400 yards combined as both a runner and receiver. This was a mark that Irving successfully reached last season (1,430) with room to improve, considering exactly half of his fantasy regular season games resulted in fewer than double-digit carries, mostly coming from the first half of the season before he took over the backfield from Rachaad White.

Irving’s second half of the season can be considered a breakout in and of itself, but projecting his usage and production across an entire season is where we can get optimistic enough to expect a true RB1 season. From Week 10-on last season, when Irving’s improved opportunities became more consistent, he ranked seventh in both rushing yards (703) and receiving yards (218) as the PPR RB7. Continuing on that pace in Year 2 would allow Irving to comfortably return that mid-range RB1 fantasy potential.

Maintaining the success of his rookie season

What thrust Irving into a starting role in the second half of last season, despite being an undersized Day 3 rookie, was a high level of play too good and too efficient to ignore. Irving finished the year as a top-10 graded running back in rushing (90.0) and receiving grades (90.5). Arguably, the most impressive aspect of Irving’s rookie season, when considering his stature, is that he led the position in yards after contact per attempt (3.93) and was top-five in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.28). Continuing to play at a high level in Year 2 would keep him in the workhorse role that will feed his opportunities at finishing as a top-eight fantasy running back or higher.

From Week 10 and on last season, Irving averaged 18.8 opportunities (targets plus carries) per game, which, considering his efficiency as a runner and receiver, would put him well in range of this high-end fantasy potential. Helping matters for Irving heading into Year 2 is that those opportunities translated to the high-scoring areas of the field, which isn’t a role often given to a smaller back. However, Irving’s talent and increased workload continued into the red zone and around the goal-line, clearing White on the year in goal-to-go touches 25 to 16 and red-zone touches 50 to 32. The team continuing to trust Irving in this key role will help him build on eight rushing touchdowns from last season and further fulfill his RB1 potential.

Bucky Irving’s 2024 RB ranks in 2024:

Walker has been on the precipice of breaking out for several seasons, but injuries have created a barrier to that RB1 potential. Heading into 2025, Walker’s RB1 potential has arguably never been greater, assuming he can stay healthy enough to allow that potential to come to fruition. Walker’s injury history has taken him from finishing as the PPR RB18 as a rookie to RB20 in Year 2 and as RB25 in Year 3. However, Walker’s role and underlying metrics point to 2024 as being his best season as a runner with a workload to be a fantasy RB1 across an entire season.

A workhorse role in Klint Kubiak’s offense

Kubiak coming in as the offensive coordinator creates some optimism for the Seahawks’ top running back, as he’s previously been a part of two offenses that have supported an overall RB1 in 2023 and RB8 in 2024. A large part of that running back success has come from involvement in the passing game, as both 2023 Christian McCaffrey and 2024 Alvin Kamara ranked top five at the position in total targets. That receiving down role was not typically a big part of Walker’s game during his first two seasons, but he took over that role last year, setting a new career high in total targets (52), which led the Seahawks backfield despite Walker missing six games and Zach Charbonnet (47) playing in all 17. This was a massive fantasy value boost for Walker, as he went from just 13.3 routes per game and 2.2 targets per game in 2023 to 20.4 routes and 4.7 targets per game in 2024. With Walker earning a top-10 receiving grade (72.9) and yards per route run (1.33) for the position, both of which outperformed Charbonnet, there’s reason to believe that he can continue dominating that role for Kibiak’s Seahawks in 2025.

On early downs, Walker remains the clear favorite, also delivering a career season in PFF rushing grade (91.3) – a top-five mark for the position last season. Walker also greatly improved at creating missed tackles, leading the entire league (min. 100 carries) in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.40). Walker’s elusiveness was and likely still is a necessity for him to find success as a runner behind a below-average offensive line, as he ranked 44th among 46 qualifying running backs in yards before contact per attempt.

Seattle’s offense ranked below average in yards per play (5.3), offensive success rate (34.6%), offensive points scored (228) and red zone plays (122), though Walker still found RB1 fantasy success when active, averaging 16.5 PPR points per game. The offense improving to even slightly above average this year is well within the realm of possibilities, and a healthy Walker can be a big part of that.

Stay healthy!

For Walker to deliver on any of the above expectations, he must stay healthy. He missed two games in each of his first two seasons and then six games in 2024. While injuries are a higher risk for most running backs, coming off a season with two separate stretches of missed time, it’s unsurprising that many fantasy managers will feel trepidatious about his RB1 potential, which is why he’s currently being drafted as a mid- to low-end RB2 at the moment. While maintaining health with his expectedly larger workload across an entire season won’t be easy, Walker is still young enough with plenty of mileage left to turn in an injury-free and efficient season to become an RB1 for the first time in his career in 2025.

Kenneth Walker’s 2024 RB ranks in 2024: