Sizing Up the NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings are part of the toughest division in pro football – the NFC North- and based on all the coaching changes and roster moves and schedule changes and return from injuries, there is a lot to assess within the division ahead of the 2025-26 season.

Oddsmakers have summed it up with their current odds for each NFC North team to win their division. These odds are representative:

Detroit Lions +150

Green Bay Packers +260

Minnesota Vikings +300

Chicago Bears +450

Draftkings has the Vikings’ odds at +400 (4/1) but just about everywhere else has them at or close to +300. Lions and Packers odds are about the same everywhere, while the Bears’ odds range from +425 to +550.

While I can see where these odds are coming from, and allowing for the fact that Packers’ odds are often more optimistic than others this time of year, (Packers were -170 preseason in 2022, +220 in 2023, and +225 in 2024) perhaps driven by betting handle (odds shorten with greater betting volume) there is a strong case to be made for an even tighter odds grouping than is currently the case- and the NFC North is already the tightest or second-tightest division from top to bottom in the odds markets for division winner.

Let’s take a closer look team by team.

Chicago Bears

The Bears continue to make major changes as they try to change their losing ways.

This off-season there was a coaching regime change as Matt Eberflus was fired mid-season a year ago. The Bears signed leading head coaching candidate Ben Johnson, former offensive coordinator of the Lions, as their new head coach and de facto offensive coordinator and play caller. Defensively they brought in Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator after he was fired mid-season last year as head coach of the Saints.

Johnson began his NFL career in Miami, where he spent six years as an assistant position coach before becoming wide receiver coach in year seven. He then moved to Detroit to take an offensive quality control job, then tight end coach job for two seasons before being promoted to offensive coordinator under Dan Campbell. He’s developed a reputation as an innovative offensive play caller that put him atop the list of head coaching candidates the last couple of years. Johnson brought quarterback coach J.T. Barrett with him from Detroit to serve in the same role, and Broncos tight end coach Declan Doyle to be his offensive coordinator.

The Bears also made big investments in their offensive personnel, upgrading their entire interior offensive line, and drafting TE Colston Loveland 10th overall and WR Luther Burden III 39th overall. Burden replaces Keenan Allen.

It All Hinges on Caleb Williams

Both the coaching changes and the offensive roster investments are designed to help last year’s #1 overall pick Caleb Williams overcome a disappointing rookie year and become the Bears’ first real franchise quarterback since the Jazz Age. But it may take more than an upgraded interior line to fix all of Williams’ shortcomings.

Much of the disappointment surrounding Williams’ performance last season was chalked up to organizational incompetence, which was certainly on display, and a weak offensive line. But a good deal of the pressure Williams faced last season was of his own making- holding the ball too long due to slow processing/recognition. Williams had the third-highest allowed pressures last season- pressures blamed on the quarterback rather than the pass protection. That is consistent with his tape at USC, where he also took a lot of sacks while trying to create out of structure. He also led the league in throwaways last season.

Another issue Williams struggled with at times last season was accuracy. His adjusted completion percentage was just 73.4% last season- tied with Will Levis- near the bottom of the league among starting quarterbacks. But perhaps the most worrying thing about Williams’ performance last season was his 70.9 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket- only Will Levis was worse among starting quarterbacks last season. Normally top quarterbacks eat opposing defenses alive from a clean pocket- Jayden Daniels had a 91.7 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket last season- but Williams struggled even when kept clean. He had by far the lowest PFF passing grade (56.4) on deep passes (20+ yards) and second-lowest adjusted completion percentage (28%) of any starting quarterback in the league last season.

Still, Williams showed flashes of what made him a top draft prospect last year and it will be up to Ben Johnson to help him realize his potential and improve what was the 28th ranked offense in points last season, 31st on 3rd down and last in yards. Here is a good assessment of Williams’ rookie season. Some pundits wonder whether Johnson is a good fit for Williams as Johnson is a play designer who with Jared Goff and a stacked offense in Detroit thrived on structure, while Williams’ instincts and play style are to create out of structure. Johnson said he is focused on designing the Bears’ offense around Williams’ strengths, so we’ll see how that unfolds.

Defensively, Dennis Allen is an experienced hand as a defensive coordinator and his experience as a head coach may be helpful to Johnson as he navigates his first season in that role. Allen’s defenses have generally been as good as their talent and while the Bears have a good secondary, they are weaker up front at both interior and edge, especially in run defense.

Below are projections for the 2025 Chicago Bears compiled by Mike Clay at ESPN. They include stat projections for starters, an assessment of schedule, each position group, and projected key stat rankings. Stat projections should come with a heavy variance caveat as the NFL is far from an exact science, but there is value in looking at position group rankings, although those too can vary, as a rough measure of more proven talent.

On that score, the Bears look solid on paper except their defensive front and running back, but really hinge on what Caleb Williams will be at quarterback this season.

Bottom Line

I don’t expect the Bears to win the division this year, but I do expect them to have a better record than the 5-12 mark last season, despite having a tougher schedule, but only a little bit better. I expect the offense to improve, but with growing pains and inconsistency. However, some of that improvement on offense may be offset by a bit of a decline defensively.

But there is an upside case where Caleb Williams improves more dramatically and the Bears’ offense is able to carry them to a few more wins and compete for the division title. There is also a downside case where Williams continues to struggle in Ben Johnson’s offense, losses mount, and this season looks like a continuation of last season.

Overall, +500 odds for the Bears to win the NFC North (16.7% implied probability) seems about right. That’s the chance of things going right and Williams making a dramatic improvement that could get them to ten wins or so. Not a great chance, but that upside scenario remains a possibility.

Detroit Lions

The Lions have also had major changes in their coaching staff- for entirely different reasons than the Bears- having lost both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching jobs. Those are significant losses as head coach Dan Campbell is not a play caller and largely let them run each side of the ball. That’s not to say Campbell isn’t involved in strategy and decision-making- he certainly is- and he sets the tone in terms of team culture, motivation, and style, but the details of game planning and play calling he leaves largely to his coordinators.

The Lions’ new offensive coordinator is John Morton, most recently the passing game coordinator the past two seasons with the Broncos. Prior to that he was a senior offensive assistant with the Lions and Raiders over four years, and prior to that had a one-year gig as offensive coordinator with the Jets in 2017. Prior to that he spent six seasons as a wide receivers coach for the Saints and 49ers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Campbell is not more actively involved early on as Morton gets acclimated into the coordinator role for the first time since 2017. Morton has familiarity with the Lions’ scheme and with Sean Payton’s, which is similar. But there are questions about how well Morton, 56, will replace Ben Johnson with just one season as a coordinator in the NFL in over 20 years of coaching prior to this season.

Defensively, the Lions promoted former Linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard, 37, to be their defensive coordinator. This will be Sheppard’s debut as a coordinator after four years coaching linebackers for the Lions. Sheppard also played linebacker in the league for 8 seasons, the last one with the Lions. Aaron Glenn had mentored Sheppard as a possible future defensive coordinator and the expectation is that schematically Sheppard will provide a lot of continuity in the transition from Glenn.

Sheppard will be helped by getting back several defensive starters that missed time last season for the Lions, most notably DE Aiden Hutchinson, but also DT Alim McNeil. The Lions lost starting CB Carlton Davis in free agency and replaced him with DJ Reed, a smaller but similarly graded corner formerly with the Jets. Reed has been good in man coverage which suggests the Lions will continue to use it predominantly.

It Hinges on the Offensive Line for the Lions

On the offensive side, John Morton is not so fortunate. The Lions lost Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement, while Pro Bowl right guard Kevin Zeitler was lost in free agency. The expectation is that former left guard Graham Glasgow- who was the weak link on the Lions’ offensive line last season- will move to center, and last year’s sixth-round pick Christian Mahagony will take over at left guard while this year’s second-round pick Tate Ratledge will start at right guard.

Glasgow has started and filled-in at center many times in his career- he has over 2,600 snaps at center- but he turns 33 in July and is on the downslide of his career. Mahagony graded well in a game’s worth of snaps last season, most coming in one game against the Bears, but how he’ll fare over a whole season remains a question. The same is true of rookie Tate Ratledge as well, who is slated to start at right guard.

The Lions had arguably the second-best offensive line after the Eagles last season, but the loss of Ragnow and Zeitler are big ones and the Lions could find themselves in a situation similar to the Vikings last season- solid at both tackle spots but weak along the interior line. That, in turn, could put a monkeywrench in the gears of their prolific offense of a season ago, despite being solid at all the skill positions. Paul Noonan over at Acme Packing Co makes a good argument about why the Lions’ losses along their offensive line could have a larger impact on their offensive production. His argument is similar to the point Jim Harbaugh made last year at the NFL owners meeting: the offensive line doesn’t depend on any other position group to be good, but every other position group depends on the offensive line to be good. That includes defensive position groups as well, as how good the offensive line is determines how long the defense is on the field.

So, for new offensive play caller John Morton and the Lions team generally, it all hinges on the offensive line. Will they be as good? What happens if they get mediocre performance from the new starters and Glasgow? That wouldn’t be surprising given Glasgow’s age and the inexperience of the two new guards.

The Lions are projected to have the second-best roster overall this season by Mike Clay of ESPN in his projections for the Lions above. But the Lions’ offensive line is ranked the lowest and it remains to be seen what effect that may have on other position groups compared to a season ago.

Bottom Line

The Lions could certainly repeat as division winners this season. They have a solid roster and the question marks on their offensive line could prove to be solid and perform similar to players from last season. But +150 odds is a poor reward for that bet.

In addition to what is likely to be a weaker offensive line- even otherwise solid left tackle Taylor Decker- soon to be 31- has a history of nagging injuries that could impact his performance, the Lions have two new coordinators this season. One has a single season of experience and the other is a rookie. That suggests the clear potential that neither will be as good as their predecessors and overall performance could decline as a result.

And the Lions are projected have the toughest schedule in the division as well- toughest in the league for that matter.

All that suggests that the Lions could take a step or two back from where they were a year ago at this time. They could still win the division, but +300 to +400 odds better account for the changes that have happened over the off-season.

Green Bay Packers

Unlike the Bears and Lions, the Packers didn’t make many changes this off-season. Same coordinators and head coach, and largely the same roster. The most noteworthy additions were first-round draft pick wide receiver Matthew Golden and veteran left guard Aaron Banks, who the Packers acquired in free agency. The Packers also lost their best cornerback in Jaire Alexander, who was let go after some internal strife and only playing six games last season, while wide receiver Christian Watson is likely to miss nearly half the season as he recovers from an ACL injury suffered in week 18 last season.

The Packers are also shuffling their interior offensive line- similar to the Lions. They are moving OL Elgton Jenkins to center, while Aaron Banks takes over left guard and presumably one of the Packers top draft picks- 2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan or 2025 second-round pick Anthony Belton wins the starting right guard spot. Morgan had about three games worth of snaps last season with mediocre performance, while Belton would be moving from left tackle in college to right guard. He is listed at 6’6” and 336 pounds. Banks is a better run blocker than pass blocker and tips the scales at over 320 pounds. Overall, the Packers look to be adding more bulk to their interior line, while moving Jenkins- arguably their best offensive lineman- to center. The idea seems to be to get more movement up front for running back Josh Jacobs to carry the load for the Packers offense. The Packers were one of the few teams to run more than they passed last season.

Did the Packers Really Do Anything to Move the Needle?

The Packers went 1-5 in the division last season and while you could say that all but one of those games were close, the Vikings were ahead by three scores heading into the fourth quarter in both games against the Packers last season. The Lions beat the Packers convincingly in one contest, while the Packers nearly went 0-6 in the division if not for a last second blocked field goal to preserve their one-point lead over the Bears in their only division win last season.

Beyond the win over the Bears, the Packers won all eight games against the NFC West and AFC South, being fortunate to play both the Rams and 49ers at their nadir in terms of key starters out due to injuries. They also beat a struggling Miami team in a cold weather Thursday night game at the end of November and a hapless Saints team led by the estimable Spencer Rattler at quarterback.

This season the NFC North including the Packers face the NFC East and AFC North, both of which figure to be tougher divisions than were faced last season. Indeed, the Packers face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league this season according to Mike Clay’s projection below.

The point I’m making here is the Packers don’t seem to have moved the needle much during the off-season, may have lost ground relative to the Bears and Vikings, and face a tougher schedule. That doesn’t seem like a recipe for a winning division record or winning the division outright, but it’s not out of the question.

What About Jordan Love?

A fair assessment of Love, now entering his fifth season and third as a starter, is that he’s an above average quarterback, but perhaps closer to average than top tier. I don’t get the impression that the team rallies around him as a leader, and last season he fell into that mid-tier quarterback trend of playing well against poor teams but struggling against good ones. Most of his key metrics like adjusted completion percentage (accuracy) and grade under pressure, passer rating, and so forth were middle of the pack.

If the Packers had more star power around Love, perhaps that would elevate Love’s game- and the Packers are trying to rebuild their receiver group and bolster their offensive line- but it still seems like the Packers have more to do before they develop an Eagles-like offensive built around a strong running game and offensive line but with a quarterback and receiver group that can beat you deep occasionally too.

And the Packers Defense?

The Packers are really lacking star power defensively. All of the Packers’ defensive position groups are looking decidedly mediocre except their safety group, which is one of the better tandems in the league. But a starting cornerback group of Keisan Nixon, Nate Hobbs, and Javon Bullard isn’t exactly intimidating. The Packers’ defensive front looks another year older, rather than better. It’s been a while now since Kenny Clark was dominant inside, and Rashan Gary as the only decent edge rusher isn’t keeping offensive coordinators up at night. Devonte Wyatt is a good, not great, interior pass rusher but not a good run defender. Give credit to Packers’ defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley for getting a top ten performance out of largely the same group last season- his first as a defensive coordinator in the league. Turnovers were key for them last season- they generated the fourth-most including recovering the third-most fumbles- but will that continue?

Bottom Line

The Packers are projected to have the weakest roster in the division according to Mike Clay in his projections above, and by a significant margin at 15th overall given everyone else in the division is ranked seventh or better.

There is a scenario where the Lions take a step back, the Vikings and Bears struggle with young quarterbacks, and the Packers continuity proves to be a strength that gets them over the finish line first, but that seems a pretty optimistic scenario for the Packers. A more likely base case scenario is the Packers largely keeping stride with the division leaders while never really becoming a serious threat to win the division and ending 2-3 games back.

There is also a more pessimistic scenario for the Packers in which the Packers’ offense struggles due to changes on the offensive line and receiver group and the defense takes a significant step backward, leading to a last place finish and a top ten draft pick. I give this scenario a greater likelihood than the Packers winning the division. Overall, I give the optimistic scenario for the Packers a 20% chance, base case a 45% chance, and the pessimistic case a 35% chance.

In terms of odds to win the division, the Packers at +260 is roughly the same as it’s been the past two years. The Packers finished 3 games out in 2023 and 4 games out last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers finished 3-4 games out this year too, and potentially worse in the pessimistic scenario. Things could go really well for the Packers too and they manage to win the division, but I see that as less likely. A more accurate appraisal of the Packers chances is closer to +500 from an odds perspective.

This could be a make-or-break year for the Packers’ regime. The Packers have a new president and CEO in Ed Policy, and at a recent press conference he said neither GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur would be extended before the season, despite the fact that both are in their second-to-last year under contract and Policy preferring to extend key people before their last year under contract. Policy went on to say that his evaluation will not just include wins and losses, but player development and locker room culture as well. The upshot of Policy’s comments was that Gutekunst and LaFleur will either be fired or extended after this season, putting them both on the hot seat this season.

Policy was with the Packers prior to both LaFleur and Gutekunst, helped negotiate both of their contracts, and knows them well personally, so his having some doubt about where the relationship is going may be an ominous sign for the Packers. Or it may simply be Policy being prudent in not rushing to extend them after a third-place finish in the division last season.

But while LaFleur and Gutekunst have done well since their hiring when it comes to wins and losses, it’s been more of a mixed bag since Devonte Adams left after the 2021 season and Aaron Rodgers a year later. They haven’t been close to winning a division title since 2021, nor have they won a playoff game apart from the Cowboys’ meltdown a couple years ago. It’s also been a mixed bag when it comes to player development and locker room culture in Green Bay.

There’s a lot that goes into that, from Jordan Love and Rashan Gary’s development to the Davante Adams and Jaire Alexander departures (for different reasons), but on balance there have been more positives than negatives in the LaFleur/Gutekunst era. But the positives are more in the past after 3rd place, 2nd place, and 3rd place finishes within the division after winning 13 games and a division title in each of LaFleur’s first three seasons as head coach. Should the Packers not make the playoffs this season, it could mean the Packers are in for a significant overhaul next season.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have continuity in their coaching staff and regime this off-season, having extended Kevin O’Connell, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, and Wes Phillips. Brian Flores remains under contract but hasn’t been extended, although the Vikings are reportedly interested in extending him. Flores himself recently expressed happiness with being in Minnesota but may also want to explore the head coaching market again after this season before committing to a contract extension as defensive coordinator.

The Vikings also did the most to bolster their trenches among NFC North teams this off-season. The Bears improved their offensive line, and the Packers may have too, but the Vikings were the only team to make major investments in both offensive and defensive lines. I’m not sure the Vikings regressed in any position group compared to this time a year ago, but I could see where a Stephon Gilmore last year may sound more reassuring than an Isaiah Rodgers does this year. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but it’s easier to project Gilmore’s performance than Rodgers’.

It’s also easy to forget that there were at least as many doubters about Sam Darnold last summer as there are about J.J. McCarthy now. But the real measure is comparing what Darnold did last season to what McCarthy is expected to do this season. Mike Clay gives McCarthy the standard rookie ranking of 4, which is fair but also lacks context based on situation. Zach Wilson starting as a rookie for the Jets would also merit a 4 ranking, for instance.

It Hinges on J.J. McCarthy

It’s no secret that the Vikings season will hinge largely on McCarthy’s performance. I’ve weighed in on expectations for McCarthy this season, based largely on the recent averages of young, first-time starters who landed in good situations and what we’ve seen from McCarthy in the limited practice and preseason time he’s had so far. That baseline expectation is roughly the same as Sam Darnold’s performance last season.

There are also scenarios where McCarthy under or overperforms that baseline expectation. Underperformance would likely come from him not being up to NFL speed in his processing and decision-making, with occasional misreads that prove costly. Overperformance would likely come from facing less pressure than Darnold did a season ago, while being able to deliver the ball from a clean pocket with Darnold-like or better accuracy and making the occasional key play with his feet.

There’s certainly a range of how people think McCarthy will perform. I’ve heard one guy say he thinks McCarthy will get injured again and Sam Howell will become the next Sam Darnold. I’ve heard that Tom Brady wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy is MVP this season. Mike Clay projects McCarthy to lead the league in interceptions with 16 but otherwise having a decent season. He certainly seems to be a great fit in the Vikings’ locker room and is on or ahead of Kevin O’Connell’s development schedule. But he still has everything to prove.

Bottom Line

The Vikings have the second-best roster on paper in the division, according to Mike Clay in his projections above, and that’s with McCarthy at the standard rookie rank of 4, same as Cam Ward with the Titans. The Vikings also have one of the toughest schedules in the league, which is true for every team in the NFC North this season, but they also have arguably done the most this off-season to improve their starting roster- Vikings and Bears improved the most on paper.

Assuming for a moment that J.J. McCarthy has a Sam Darnold 2024-like season, which is a base case scenario for the Vikings, they could win the division if the Lions take a step back from last season, the Packers are about the same, and the Bears are no more than a little improved. That’s more or less the base case for each team.

There’s also the optimistic case for the Vikings in which McCarthy really shines, and the pessimistic case where he struggles. My sense is that the optimistic case is more likely than the pessimistic scenario, with roughly a 30% chance of the former and a 20% chance of the latter and a 50% chance of a base case scenario.

But overall the Vikings at +300 seems about right.

Final NFC North Thoughts

The NFC North may be the toughest division in the NFL and the most competitive top to bottom this season. I don’t expect any 15- or 14-win teams this season, and eleven wins may be enough to win the division. That’s a reflection of the tougher schedule the division faces this year more than the quality of the teams compared to last season.

But overall, on paper before the season begins, it looks like a tighter grouping in terms of odds to win the division, ranging from around +300 for the Vikings and Lions in my view, to around +500 for the Packers and Bears.

But most years rather than there being a tight grouping of teams in terms of record, there is usually at least one team that gets squeezed and ends up several games behind in last place. That has been the Bears the past few years and the Lions before that. It might still be the Bears again this year, but I’d put the Packers odds of finishing in last place higher than they’ve been since Matt LaFleur has been head coach.

As always, injuries are a big caveat. Injuries are a big part of the game and aren’t going away anytime soon. Which team in the division that manages to stay the healthiest will have an advantage while any team that loses a key player or two could be dealt a major setback.

Poll

Which team is most likely to finish last in the NFC North this season?

• 43%

  Chicago Bears

  (7 votes)

• 0%

  Detroit Lions

  (0 votes)

• 37%

  Green Bay Packers

  (6 votes)

• 18%

  Minnesota Vikings

  (3 votes)

16 votes total

Vote Now