Make or Break: Kayvon Thibodeaux is better than you think

Throughout the 2025 offseason, there were suggestions that the New York Giants could look at trading 2022 fifth-overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Those suggestions were put to bed when the Giants picked up Thibodeaux’s fifth-year option. But even then, Thibodeaux seems considered to be the third wheel in the Giants’ defensive line—or perhaps the fifth wheel after the selections of Abdul Carter and Darius Alexander.

Some consider Thibodeaux to be a “bust”, but the overall consensus among most fans and the media is that he’s merely “fine”. He’s not a liability or a poor player by any means, but he is also not living up to his pedigree as a fifth-overall pick.

So it was predictable that his claim that his goal is still to beat Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record would be met with dismissal.

A fifth overall pick shouldn’t merely be chasing “fine”. The expectations are that a 24-year-old Top 5 pick entering his fourth season should be pushing for a big-money second contract.

The Giants are also counting on Thibodeaux to be a vital part of their defense and to help turn the ship around in 2025. So I decided to dive into his tape to find out if Thibodeaux is better than the box score suggests.

Buckle up, this is gonna be a big one — but it’ll also be worth it.

Why he can make it

Thibodeaux has become a very well-rounded, versatile, and disruptive edge defender.

Most of the conversation will be about Thibodeaux’s ability as a pass rusher. He has, however, become quite a good run defender. That’s of particular importance considering run defense is the single biggest weakness in Abdul Carter’s scouting report. As the saying goes, you have to earn the right to rush the passer, and Thibodeaux being a reliable run defender will get — and keep — him on the field.

Thibodeaux has learned how to be disciplined as a run defender, playing with good patience and technique. He understands how to engage with blockers without becoming entangled, which allows him to make plays off of blocks or disengage at will.

He also understands how to position himself and how to leverage the ball back to his teammates when he can’t make a play. Likewise, he plays with a very strong motor and great effort in pursuit.

Thibodeaux has always been an athletic edge defender, with great speed, explosiveness, and agility. We’ve talked a great deal about Abdul Carter’s versatility to play off-ball linebacker and how that could allow defensive coordinator Shane Bowen to get Burns, Thibodeaux, and Carter on the field at the same time. However, Thibodeaux is also capable of dropping into shallow zones and playing in space.

Thibodeaux, lining up as the left edge in a two-point stance, quickly gets good depth in his zone drop. Once in space, he manages to avoid the traffic created by WR Kevin Austin’s in-breaking route to help Micah McFadden bring down Alvin Kamara for just a 4-yard gain.

Thibodeaux is, obviously, best on the line of scrimmage and playing downhill. However, adding wrinkles to the defense can only help his value to the Giants.

Rushing the passer

Defending the run and helping to disguise blitzes is all well and good — great, in fact. But whether or not Thibodeaux gets his bag will be determined by how often he can put opposing quarterbacks on the ground.

Many, in both the fandom and in the media, look at the 4.0 sacks that Thibodeaux had in 2022 and 5.5 sacks in 2024 and conclude that Thibodeaux is a disappointment as a pass rusher.

To a certain extent, that’s understandable. Not all (or many) fans have the time and access to All-22 tape, and most media members have deadlines to meet. The box score gets the headlines and then it’s on to the next week, but that seldom tells the whole story.

Brandon Thorn is one of the premier experts in play along the line of scrimmage. He works with the likes of Duke Manyweather and OL Masterminds and is also the purveyor of the “Trench Warfare” newsletter. As a part of that newsletter, Thorn rewatches every game to examine defensive line play. Every week, and every year, he grades the NFL’s pass rush on what he calls “True Sack Rate”, which is his attempt to weed out coverage sacks and isolate pass rusher play.

His film analysis and charting suggest that we have been significantly under-appreciating Thibodeaux’s work.

Thibodeaux had relatively few pass rush snaps last year (333), thanks to his missed time and the fact that opponents ran as much as they threw against the Giants in 2024. Frankly, teams found it easy to complete passes against the Giants’ secondary when they did throw last year. As such, Thibodeaux doesn’t appear in Thorn’s list of Top 25 edge defenders in raw sacks per snap.

However, his play suddenly comes into focus when Thorn applies his “High Quality” and “Rare + High Quality” sack rate filters.

He defines a “High Quality” sack as “A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.” A “Rare High Quality” sack has the same criteria, except that it’s against elite competition.

Thibodeaux ranks sixth among NFL edge defenders in High Quality Sack Rate, just 0.4 points behind Micah Parsons. When filtering further for “Rare + High Quality”, Thibodeaux is still 14th in the NFL.

*Note: Brian Burns did not rank in either chart.

As mentioned above, Thibodeaux has a lot of positive traits for an edge defender. He is fast, explosive, and flexible, and has also improved his play strength over the last three seasons. What doesn’t show up at game speed is Thibodeaux’s significantly improved pass-rush technique.

Thibodeaux now employs a full range of speed and power moves, including chop, club, rip, swim, and swipe moves, as well as bull rush and long-arm moves. He also has an improved understanding of how to mix speed and power, using one to complement the other.

Thibodeaux has also become much more cerebral in how he approaches his pass rushes. He doesn’t simply try to overwhelm blockers, but is setting them up with lightning quick fakes.

I slowed the play down to 25% speed in order to illustrate the point here.

Thibodeaux is lined up across from the left tackle and explodes off the line of scrimmage at the snap. As he makes the third step of his rush, he uses a very quick fake to his right (offensive left), with his right foot and shoulders. It isn’t much and it’s easy to miss at even half speed, but the Cowboys’ left tackle reacts anyway and sets up for an outside move. Instead, Thibodeaux uses that slight jab step to cut inside and exploit the B-gap, which is expanded by Dexter Lawrence slanting to the defensive left. An efficient rip move is enough to get under the tackle’s pads and he’s forced to grab at Thibodeaux’s jersey to attempt to slow him down.

Plays like the above suggest that he’s raised the mental side of his game to the next level.

Why he may not

As mentioned earlier, we have to grade on a curve when it comes to player expectations. Where we might set the “Make it” expectations for a player like (former 243rd overall pick) Jordon Riley at being a reliable depth piece a team can feel good about having on the field, the standards for a former fifth overall pick like Thibodeaux are different.

As noted above, the expectations for Thibodeaux aren’t just to stay in the NFL, but rather to earn a lucrative second contract.

To force the Giants — or another team if he’s able to test free agency — to back up the Brinks truck, he’ll need to put up numbers. That, however, hasn’t been something he’s done consistently to date, and there are a couple of reasons why.

First and foremost, we’ll start with Thibodeaux’s alignment and usage.

Per NFL NextGenStats, Thibodeaux aligned as the Right Edge — at either defensive end or outside linebacker — on 72.7% of his snaps. In other words, he was almost always playing against the opposing left tackle (and therefore usually seeing the better blocker). That also allowed opposing blockers to prepare specifically for Thibodeaux during the week and get a feel for his tendencies and technique during a game.

I can’t say whether his alignment was determined by his preference or Bowen’s scheme, but it was a factor in his tape.

That leads us to the second factor that limited Thibodeaux’s production last year, which was a tendency to be predictable in his rushes.

I noted above that he has developed a surprisingly wide array of moves and freely mixes power with speed and finesse. However, the general structure of Thibodeaux’s rushes is frustratingly consistent. He relies very heavily on outside routes to the quarterback, usually setting them up with a quick jab step to the inside. When it works, he can be incredibly disruptive. There were also several instances where blockers were ready for his go-to tactic and were able to account for it or get just enough of him that the opposing quarterback was able to evade the rush.

We can’t know if his reliance on outside routes is Thibodeaux’s personal preference or scheme. It does allow Thibodeaux to maintain outside contain, which cut down on quarterback scrambles when he was on the field as well as forced passers to step up into the arms of his teammates. From that perspective, he’s a good teammate and played an important role in the overall structure of the defense. But his selflessness (if that’s what it is) also cost him sacks and QB hits.

There are also a pair of factors that are beyond Thibodeaux’s control that complicate matters.

First is uncertainty regarding the Giants’ offense. The Giants have fielded one of the worst offenses in the NFL throughout Thibodeaux’s career, and last year the defense saw the third-fewest pass attempts against in the NFL — 503. If the other team isn’t under pressure to keep pace, they’re less likely to deviate from their game plan and the defensive front simply won’t get as many opportunities to rush the passer. We’re expecting the offense to improve with a new quarterback, a healthy offensive line, and another year of maturity for the young skill players.

The other factor is the depth and breadth of talent the Giants have accumulated along their defensive front. There were multiple plays on Thibodeaux’s tape last year where he earned a sack and would have gotten it on 20 other defensive lines… But he arrived an instant behind Brian Burns or Dexter Lawrence, who got credit in the box score.

With another year for Elijah Chatman as well as the additions of Abdul Carter and Darius Alexander, Thibodeaux will have even more competition in the race to the quarterback.

In some ways, Thibodeaux finds himself in the same boat as safety Dane Belton — a disruptive player who is competing with the rest of a deep and talented unit. It’s a “good problem” for Shane Bowen, but just a plain old “problem” for the player seeking a second contract.

Final thoughts

Thibodeaux has, in many ways, become almost an afterthought on the Giants’ defensive line. Perhaps it’s excitement over Abdul Carter’s potential or sour grapes concerning the Giants’ overall poor play in 2023 and 2024.

However, upon closer inspection, it seems as though Thibodeaux is being underrated and overlooked by the media at large, save perhaps specialists like Thorn.

Again, a tip of the cap to Thorn and his work. If you can, it’s incredibly enlightening to check out.

As I said above, it’s understandable that fans and most media members aren’t paying attention. His box score results are poor to mediocre at best. But when you go beyond the box score — as Thorn does — Thibodeaux becomes much more impressive. That’s backed up by player tracking data from NFL NextGenStats, who credit Thibodeaux with the highest pressure rate of his career last year (12.8 percent as an edge rusher). Thibodeaux and Brian Burns were one of just four (4) pass-rushing duos to generate at least 20 pressures apiece over the final seven weeks of the season, and the only duo to each force a turnover on a pressure.

I would suggest that Thibodeaux’s final sack total was as much a function of bad luck as what he needs to improve. I viewed each of his 42 pressures from the All-22 and end zone angles and counted 15 instances (outside of his credited sacks) where he won his rep handily but was robbed of a sack. In every case, it was either the play call (a very fast catch-and-throw pass) or a great effort by the quarterback. And even then, Thibodeaux often created sacks for his teammates — each of Azeez Ojulari, Jason Pinnock, D.J. Davidson, and Micah McFadden were credited with sacks that were created by Thibodeaux’s disruption.

It isn’t realistic to assume that each of those 15 instances were “shoulda-been” sacks. But taken as a whole, his pressure rate and how close he often was to the quarterback suggests those sacks are coming. He may only need to make a few slight adjustments or improvements to once again post double-digit sacks. If he converted just a third of those close calls, he could have averaged nearly a sack a game and we would be having a very different conversation regarding Thibodeaux as a pass rusher.

I’m not going to weigh in on whether Thibodeaux will break Strahan’s record. Frankly, I don’t think it’s possible due to how much competition there will be for sacks on the Giants’ defense. As well as Thibodeaux did in Thorn’s charting, Dexter Lawrence ranked third in raw sack score and blew away the rest of the field in snaps per sack, high-quality sack rate, and rare+high quality sack rate.

There are indeed aspects of his game that he needs to improve if he wants to take the next step in his development.

I will, however, suggest that it would behoove the Giants to start hammering out a long-term extension for Thibodeaux now. If the Giants’ investments in quarterback and defensive back pay off, Thibodeaux could be primed for a huge jump in production. It’s possible that the only thing that could temper his production is how many good pass rushers the Giants have accumulated.

In that case, the Giants should still take advantage of Jaxson Dart’s rookie contract to make sure their defensive front stays deep and dangerous.