Is Tua Tagovailoa the Miami Dolphins’ ‘make or break’ player?

Pro Football Focus released a video on X this morning taking a look at the 2025 “make or break” player for each NFL team. When it came to the Miami Dolphins, the focus fell squarely on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering his sixth year in the league. Miami selected Tagovailoa with the fifth-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, then signed him to a contract extension last year.

Trevor Sikkema and Dalton Wasserman discussed Tagovailoa just over an hour into their show. Wasserman has a scheduled article discussing his selection of Tagovailoa, and all 31 other players, but as of the release of the discussion, that article had not been published.

Sikkema starts the look at Miami’s quarterback with a review of Tagovailoa’s contract situation, stating, “This is the last year in which Tua is like not really movable at all, whatsoever, so they have him for 2025, there’s no question about it. If they were to cut him next offseason, they still take on dead money, but it is only $22 million. I say only $22 million, and maybe before, that would have scared some people off, but as we have seen as of late, it feels like teams are not afraid to take on a ton of dead cap if they believe that is what the best move is for improving their quarterback position. So $22 million kind of feels like chump change at that point if you don’t feel like Tua Tagovailoa is your guy moving forward.”

Looking at Tagovailoa’s contract on OverTheCap.com, Sikkema’s numbers are not exactly correct. Tagovailoa’s 20256salary became guaranteed on March 14 this year. The Dolphins would add $22.8 million in additional dead money Sikkema cites if they were to cut Tagovailoa after the 2025 season, but that is on top of the $56.4 million salary cap number he is scheduled to carry next year. The Dolphins would add a total of $79.2 million in dead money by releasing Tagovailoa in the 2026 offseason.

The Dolphins could lower the immediate impact in 2026 by designating Tagovailoa a post-June 1 release, but that would still result in $62.4 million in dead money for the season.

Miami’s real out is after the 2026 season, in the 2027 offseason. That offseason, Miami would change a $53.4 million cap number into $16.8 million in dead money, giving them a $36.6 million savings.

A couple of minutes later, Sikkema suggests that, while Tagovailoa is likely the best make-or-break selection for a single player, the real make-or-break focus for the Dolphins is “for the entire Miami Dolphins organization. With their general manager, with their total front office, with their coaching staff, with the roster as it is currently constructed. Everything. And certainly any time you that is the case, you are centered on the quarterback position. I think it is a make or break for every single person that is employed by the Miami Dolphins right now.”

Wasserman agreed with Sikkeman, responding, “I think that’s a great call; I was just thinking the same thing. I was just going to ask you, ‘Does it feel like they are the most make or break team in the NFL this year?’”

He continued after Sikkema said yes, “I think even in a player sense, it’s a combo between Tua and this offensive line. You could pick out [second-year offensive tackle] Patrick Paul or [free-agent addition guard] James Daniels or [second-round rookie guard] Jonah Savaiinaea or whoever on this offensive line, because we have to remember, even with [tackle] Terron Armstead here last year, and now he’s retired, they were 20th in the league in pass blocking grade.”

Wasserman added that, with Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are effective, but if he is injured, they “sink.” He turned back to the make-or-break aspect of the discussion, agreeing that it is a make of break for the entire organization, but that it “starts with the quarterback.”

He concluded, “If [Tua] gets hurt again behind this offensive line this year, things could go south really quick for Miami.”

While I agree with Sikkema and Wasserman that the success of the Dolphins is going to be on the shoulders of Tagovailoa this year, I think they hit on the more important aspect as they continued into the end of their conversation. Maybe this defeats the “make-or-break player” aspect for the article, but the make-or-break piece of the Dolphins’ 2025 season will be the offensive line. Unless they can pass block better, and unless they find ways to open holes for running back De’Von Achane, the team will break. The line is the key to Miami’s success – whether it is on any single play design or if it is looking at the ability to keep Tagovailoa upright and healthy.

Miami will go the way of the Tagovailoa. But, Tagovailoa will go the way of the offensive line.

The offensive line will make or break this season.

You can check out the entire league-wide discussion between Sikkema and Wasserman right here: