A 2025 update in the multi year study of the running back wall
This is the third edition of this multi-year long look into the running back wall, which attempts to evaluate the magic number (of touches) where running backs decline after hitting it.
In the last update, we found the magic number to be around 3350 touches. Has it changed since then?
Old data recap
In the updated 2022 analysis, I reviewed 24 notable NFL running backs to identify when performance typically declines — what I referred to as “hitting the wall.” By measuring total career college touches and yards per touch, I found that most elite backs begin to decline around 3,334 touches (with a margin of ±600), and at an average age of 29.5 years old.
The analysis featured examples like Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, who each saw clear performance dips within that expected range of usage and age. These cases supported the broader trend: regardless of talent level, physical wear tends to catch up with backs somewhere between their sixth and ninth NFL season, depending on workload.
Applying that framework to Jonathan Taylor at the time, I noted he had accumulated 1,631 touches between college and his first two NFL seasons. Based on projected usage (around 340 touches per year), Taylor appeared to have at least 5 more high-quality seasons ahead of him before hitting the wall. That led to the recommendation of a 4-year contract extension after his rookie deal, ideally locking him in through age 28 or 29 — right before the typical cliff.
This data-driven model remains a useful tool for anticipating when a back’s efficiency may start to drop.
New data
Nothing has changed with the 24 players used in the original study, so let’s add another four players whose careers have declined or ended in the past 3-4 seasons or were excluded (for whatever reason) in the 2022 update: Ezekiel Elliott, Matt Forte, Melvin Gordon and Mark Ingram.
Like in the last version, we use the same metrics to measure/quantify quality of play.
- Yards per touch (NFL) — To use as the point where we can find his initial decline
- Total amount of touches — Touches = hits, which is the #1 factor in a running back’s decline; this figure includes NFL regular season totals, college totals and NFL playoff totals
- Yards per touch by NFL year — To evaluate which season we see the decline start (based on the yards per touch career average).
- Average number of touches per season — How many times did he touch the ball per season, using a 17 games projected average (if the player played less than 17 games that season).
- After how many touches did his play decline — The sum of his NFL career touches before the initial season of his decline
- Magic Number — the total from above (after how many touches did his play decline number) plus the amount of touches from college
Ezekiel Elliott
Career Y/T: 4.7
Total touches: 3157 (2507 + 650)
Yards per touch by NFL year: 5.6, 4.7, 5.3, 5.0, 4.4, 4.5, 3.9, 4.1, 3.4
Average number of touches by season: 316
After how many NFL touches did his play decline: 1938
Age at decline: 27
Magic Number: 2588
Note: With Elliott, while his yard per touch numbers declined after his 4th season, his yards per carry number stayed on par with his career averages through his 6th season so it was very evident to me that there was a decline after his 6th season and not his 4th.
Matt Forte
Career Y/T: 5.0
Total touches: 3846 (2910 + 936)
Yards per touch by NFL year: 4.5, 4.4, 5.6, 5.8, 4.9, 5.3, 5.0, 4.9, 4.3, 4.8
Average number of touches by season: 339
After how many NFL touches did his play decline: 2522
Age at decline: 31
Magic Number: 3458
Melvin Gordon
Career Y/T: 4.8
Total touches: 2558 (1905 + 653)
Yards per touch by NFL year: 3.8, 4.8, 4.6, 6.1, 4.5, 4.6, 4.9, 4.7, 4.4
Average number of touches by season: 289
After how many NFL touches did his play decline: 1761
Age at decline: 29
Magic Number: 2414
Mark Ingram
Career Y/T: 4.8
Total touches: 2751 (2120 + 632)
Yards per touch by NFL year: 3.9, 3.9, 5.3, 4.3, 5.4, 5.4, 5.3, 5.1, 5.5, 4.5, 3.8, 3.9
Average number of touches by season: 231
After how many NFL touches did his play decline: 1777
Age at decline: 31
Magic Number: 2409
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor, who is 26 years old, currently sits at 1369 career NFL touches and he had 968 touches in college, which means his total is at 2337 college and pro touches.
While the original wall number sits at 3330, 3 of the 4 players used in this article’s update saw magic numbers at around 2500. The other one saw his magic number around the old article’s number. While it might just be some outliers, it could also signal a trend of running backs falling off cliffs earlier. The reasons are unknown, but some possibilities include:
- Players being bigger, faster and stronger, which results in harder and heavier hits.
- The shift to turf fields put much more strain on knees and those fields are generally harder, making falls more impactful to the body. Matt Forte, who played on grass most of his career, had a higher magic number than Elliott, Murray and Ingram, who mostly played on turfs.
Taylor averages 347 touches per season in a 17 game season. If we use the original magic number of 3330, then Taylor would have just under 3 seasons of quality play left in him. It’s safe to say that 3 more quality seasons, which would also put him at 29 years old, is a fair ceiling as the overwhelming amount of data above would suggest drop offs at that point, so unless Taylor is special in terms of longevity (his injury history would indicate otherwise), then he won’t be his usual self after that point.
What’s a tad more concerning is the recent trends of walls being in the mid 2000s. If that’s the case, then we could see a drop off after this coming season. Taylor has 2 years left on his contract, including a potential out after this coming season. If Taylor is not his same self, it would be proactive of the Colts to cut him after this season as it will likely not get better. Not being himself could include injuries and/or a drop in production.
If Taylor has a good season this year, then it’s definitely worth finishing out his contract, but based on the research, it would be be a very poor decision to give Jonathan Taylor a third contract at 29 years old, unless it’s heavily discounted or just for one season. The Colts should also look to find his replacement in next year’s draft.
