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As we complete our position-by-position “better or worse?” examination of the New York Giants’ offense we have reached the final and most important position — quarterback.
We are going to dispense with the standard “better or worse?” argument. The Giants are clearly better, positioned both with a better short-term signal-caller in Russell Wilson and a potential long-term answer in Jaxson Dart.
So, the question is not “are they better?”
The short-term question is “have they improved enough for it to matter in 2025?” The long-term question is “have they bet on the right horse to carry the franchise into the future?”
Short term
Russell Wilson isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. When he became head coach of the Denver Broncos Sean Payton clearly wanted to move on from Wilson. While, statistically, he played well enough for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, it seems that not everyone in Pittsburgh was on the Wilson train.
While the comparison is not perfect, Wilson’s career is somewhat reminiscent of that of former Giants great Eli Manning. While Manning stayed with the Giants for the entirety of his 16-year career and Wilson has become an NFL nomad, both players’ careers were far more successful in the first half than in the second half.
Even in the back half of Wilson’s career, though, he has been better than Daniel Jones. Check out the table below from rbsdm.com charting quarterback efficiency from Jones’ rookie season in 2019 through 2024. It is sorted by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and clearly shows Wilson being more effective than Jones.
QB Efficiency, 2019-2024
Player | Team | Plays | EPA+CPOE composite | Adj. EPA/play | EPA/play | Success rate | Cmp% | Expected cmp% | CPOE | Air yards |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Plays | EPA+CPOE composite | Adj. EPA/play | EPA/play | Success rate | Cmp% | Expected cmp% | CPOE | Air yards |
B.Purdy | 1299 | 0.161 | 0.267 | 0.254 | 53.30% | 69.9 | 66.9 | 3 | 8.1 | |
P.Mahomes | 4252 | 0.153 | 0.248 | 0.238 | 52.40% | 70.1 | 67.3 | 2.8 | 7.4 | |
J.Allen | 4297 | 0.138 | 0.214 | 0.206 | 51.80% | 67.7 | 65.2 | 2.5 | 8.8 | |
J.Daniels | 699 | 0.141 | 0.206 | 0.202 | 49.40% | 71.8 | 68.3 | 3.5 | 7.4 | |
L.Jackson | 3543 | 0.135 | 0.207 | 0.196 | 50.40% | 67.9 | 65.6 | 2.4 | 8.8 | |
R.Tannehill | 2277 | 0.13 | 0.189 | 0.17 | 51.60% | 68.6 | 65.8 | 2.8 | 8.1 | |
D.Prescott | 3193 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.169 | 51.30% | 68.7 | 67.2 | 1.5 | 8.2 | |
J.Garoppolo | 1865 | 0.118 | 0.184 | 0.167 | 50.30% | 69.4 | 68.4 | 1 | 7 | |
A.Rodgers | 3202 | 0.123 | 0.179 | 0.166 | 48.60% | 68.6 | 66.4 | 2.2 | 7.9 | |
T.Brady | 2965 | 0.115 | 0.175 | 0.16 | 49.00% | 67.8 | 66.8 | 0.9 | 8 | |
J.Love | 1254 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.157 | 47.80% | 65.7 | 65.2 | 0.5 | 8.7 | |
J.Burrow | 3064 | 0.133 | 0.176 | 0.157 | 50.50% | 70.9 | 66.6 | 4.3 | 7.5 | |
J.Hurts | 2825 | 0.117 | 0.16 | 0.146 | 48.40% | 68.9 | 66.4 | 2.5 | 8.4 | |
T.Tagovailoa | 2364 | 0.118 | 0.164 | 0.145 | 50.00% | 70.1 | 67.6 | 2.5 | 7.7 | |
J.Herbert | 3484 | 0.101 | 0.148 | 0.137 | 48.40% | 68.5 | 68 | 0.5 | 7.4 | |
M.Stafford | 3167 | 0.099 | 0.155 | 0.133 | 49.50% | 67.2 | 67.8 | -0.6 | 8.3 | |
K.Cousins | 3402 | 0.114 | 0.151 | 0.128 | 49.10% | 70.5 | 67.9 | 2.6 | 7.7 | |
D.Carr | 3425 | 0.109 | 0.142 | 0.118 | 47.60% | 70.7 | 68.5 | 2.3 | 8.1 | |
T.Bridgewater | 1426 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.117 | 48.70% | 71 | 67.8 | 3.2 | 7.6 | |
J.Goff | 3842 | 0.1 | 0.138 | 0.115 | 49.00% | 70.1 | 69.4 | 0.8 | 7 | |
M.Mariota | 786 | 0.089 | 0.124 | 0.113 | 48.90% | 65.2 | 65.4 | -0.2 | 9.4 | |
B.Mayfield | 3539 | 0.082 | 0.111 | 0.098 | 46.80% | 66 | 66.5 | -0.5 | 8.1 | |
K.Murray | 3582 | 0.09 | 0.111 | 0.094 | 47.70% | 70 | 69.1 | 0.9 | 7.5 | |
B.Nix | 702 | 0.081 | 0.093 | 0.09 | 45.30% | 68.9 | 68.3 | 0.6 | 7.4 | |
D.Watson | 2092 | 0.094 | 0.103 | 0.088 | 47.40% | 68.8 | 66.6 | 2.2 | 8.5 | |
R.Wilson | 3494 | 0.105 | 0.1 | 0.081 | 46.50% | 69.1 | 64.8 | 4.3 | 8.6 | |
G.Smith | 2145 | 0.104 | 0.092 | 0.078 | 49.00% | 71.7 | 66.9 | 4.8 | 7.3 | |
N.Mullens | 602 | 0.091 | 0.11 | 0.075 | 47.50% | 68.3 | 67.2 | 1.1 | 7.4 | |
J.Winston | 1513 | 0.079 | 0.104 | 0.067 | 47.50% | 62.8 | 63.4 | -0.6 | 10.1 | |
C.Stroud | 1250 | 0.064 | 0.065 | 0.055 | 44.70% | 66.5 | 67.3 | -0.8 | 8.6 | |
J.Brissett | 1550 | 0.063 | 0.065 | 0.053 | 46.70% | 65.2 | 66.2 | -1 | 7.9 | |
T.Lawrence | 2453 | 0.063 | 0.065 | 0.052 | 48.20% | 65.5 | 66.4 | -0.9 | 8 | |
M.Rudolph | 813 | 0.065 | 0.054 | 0.043 | 44.90% | 66.7 | 66.5 | 0.3 | 7.8 | |
C.Wentz | 2346 | 0.048 | 0.041 | 0.026 | 45.80% | 63.8 | 65.8 | -2.1 | 8.2 | |
T.Taylor | 525 | 0.065 | 0.037 | 0.024 | 44.40% | 67.2 | 65.9 | 1.3 | 8.1 | |
M.Trubisky | 1372 | 0.051 | 0.027 | 0.015 | 47.40% | 66.1 | 66.7 | -0.6 | 8.2 | |
G.Minshew II | 2101 | 0.051 | 0.035 | 0.013 | 44.60% | 67 | 68.1 | -1.1 | 7.4 | |
K.Pickett | 949 | 0.046 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 44.60% | 65.6 | 66.1 | -0.5 | 7.5 | |
M.Jones | 1861 | 0.054 | 0.028 | 0.003 | 45.40% | 67.9 | 68 | 0 | 7.8 | |
A.Dalton | 1974 | 0.046 | 0.031 | 0.001 | 46.10% | 65.9 | 67.7 | -1.8 | 7.5 | |
T.Heinicke | 1120 | 0.048 | 0.021 | 0.001 | 45.80% | 65.3 | 66 | -0.7 | 8.2 | |
D.Jones | 2961 | 0.051 | 0.021 | -0.001 | 45.80% | 67.2 | 67.5 | -0.3 | 7.3 | |
S.Darnold | 2405 | 0.052 | 0.017 | -0.003 | 45.80% | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.2 | 8.2 | |
J.Fields | 1746 | 0.045 | 0.01 | -0.006 | 43.60% | 64.8 | 65.4 | -0.6 | 8.6 | |
D.Maye | 459 | 0.067 | 0.018 | -0.007 | 47.50% | 69.9 | 67 | 2.8 | 7.6 | |
D.Lock | 1155 | 0.027 | 0.023 | -0.008 | 42.90% | 61.6 | 66.2 | -4.6 | 8.2 | |
J.Flacco | 1252 | 0.045 | 0.018 | -0.014 | 44.10% | 64.6 | 65.7 | -1.1 | 8.5 | |
A.Richardson | 494 | -0.014 | -0.012 | -0.024 | 41.30% | 53.3 | 63.4 | -10.1 | 11.3 | |
C.Williams | 750 | 0.039 | -0.017 | -0.026 | 41.60% | 67.2 | 67.3 | -0.1 | 7.9 | |
A.O’Connell | 670 | 0.019 | -0.018 | -0.026 | 43.60% | 66.2 | 70 | -3.8 | 7.8 | |
C.Rush | 630 | 0.003 | -0.018 | -0.039 | 42.90% | 62 | 68.6 | -6.6 | 7.5 | |
T.Huntley | 668 | 0.039 | -0.033 | -0.044 | 41.90% | 67.8 | 67.1 | 0.6 | 7.7 | |
M.White | 356 | 0.015 | -0.003 | -0.046 | 45.80% | 62.8 | 68.1 | -5.3 | 7 | |
K.Allen | 802 | 0.035 | -0.018 | -0.053 | 46.30% | 66.4 | 67.2 | -0.8 | 7.9 | |
C.Keenum | 460 | 0.023 | -0.029 | -0.06 | 46.30% | 65.8 | 68.2 | -2.4 | 6.7 | |
D.Ridder | 734 | 0.024 | -0.045 | -0.073 | 44.80% | 66.4 | 68 | -1.6 | 8.1 | |
J.Dobbs | 703 | 0.024 | -0.052 | -0.078 | 42.80% | 65.9 | 67.2 | -1.3 | 7.7 | |
D.Mills | 1121 | 0.01 | -0.071 | -0.092 | 40.90% | 64.8 | 68.1 | -3.3 | 7.5 | |
C.McCoy | 404 | 0.028 | -0.081 | -0.092 | 41.10% | 69.4 | 69.2 | 0.2 | 6.6 | |
S.Howell | 806 | 0.022 | -0.062 | -0.094 | 42.30% | 66.2 | 67.5 | -1.3 | 7.2 | |
N.Foles | 581 | 0.032 | -0.073 | -0.096 | 40.40% | 67.6 | 66.8 | 0.8 | 7.9 | |
B.Young | 1135 | 0.025 | -0.075 | -0.1 | 40.10% | 65.7 | 66.3 | -0.5 | 8.1 | |
B.Allen | 360 | -0.018 | -0.089 | -0.104 | 41.40% | 59.5 | 67.5 | -8 | 7.1 | |
W.Levis | 716 | 0.026 | -0.069 | -0.112 | 40.10% | 62.9 | 63.3 | -0.4 | 9.8 | |
T.Siemian | 440 | -0.012 | -0.109 | -0.15 | 39.50% | 60.7 | 67.3 | -6.6 | 6.6 | |
Z.Wilson | 1233 | -0.011 | -0.143 | -0.161 | 38.80% | 60.9 | 67.1 | -6.3 | 7.9 | |
B.Zappe | 407 | 0.011 | -0.18 | -0.216 | 37.10% | 65 | 67.5 | -2.5 | 7.7 | |
P.Walker | 406 | -0.025 | -0.205 | -0.233 | 36.70% | 55.9 | 65.1 | -9.2 | 8.5 |
Those numbers, while perhaps not spectacular, make Wilson the best starting quarterback the Giants have had since Manning.
The same chart for 2024 shows Wilson performing better than Jones, though perhaps not by a massive margin, and performing far better than Drew Lock.
QB Efficiency 2024
Player | Team | Plays | EPA+CPOE composite | Adj. EPA/play | EPA/play | Success rate | Cmp% | Expected cmp% | CPOE | Air yards |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Plays | EPA+CPOE composite | Adj. EPA/play | EPA/play | Success rate | Cmp% | Expected cmp% | CPOE | Air yards |
J.Allen | 638 | 0.171 | 0.332 | 0.321 | 52.20% | 66.9 | 66 | 0.8 | 8.4 | |
L.Jackson | 653 | 0.184 | 0.31 | 0.296 | 52.40% | 69.6 | 65.1 | 4.6 | 8.8 | |
J.Goff | 603 | 0.189 | 0.303 | 0.292 | 54.10% | 76.5 | 70.8 | 5.7 | 6.6 | |
J.Burrow | 776 | 0.169 | 0.232 | 0.212 | 53.20% | 73.2 | 66.5 | 6.8 | 7.2 | |
B.Mayfield | 697 | 0.147 | 0.222 | 0.209 | 52.40% | 72.4 | 68.8 | 3.6 | 6.9 | |
J.Daniels | 699 | 0.141 | 0.206 | 0.202 | 49.40% | 71.8 | 68.3 | 3.5 | 7.4 | |
T.Tagovailoa | 451 | 0.145 | 0.214 | 0.2 | 53.20% | 75 | 71.2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | |
B.Purdy | 570 | 0.133 | 0.208 | 0.198 | 51.80% | 68.2 | 66.1 | 2.1 | 8.7 | |
J.Love | 485 | 0.127 | 0.211 | 0.192 | 49.10% | 65.2 | 64.6 | 0.6 | 9 | |
P.Mahomes | 695 | 0.124 | 0.178 | 0.165 | 50.90% | 70.9 | 68.3 | 2.6 | 6.4 | |
J.Herbert | 627 | 0.116 | 0.166 | 0.164 | 47.40% | 68.5 | 66.5 | 1.9 | 8.6 | |
J.Hurts | 552 | 0.149 | 0.171 | 0.161 | 50.20% | 74.3 | 66.7 | 7.5 | 7.9 | |
K.Murray | 682 | 0.116 | 0.161 | 0.15 | 51.30% | 71.4 | 69.3 | 2.1 | 7 | |
D.Carr | 318 | 0.122 | 0.162 | 0.149 | 43.70% | 72.1 | 68.9 | 3.3 | 8.2 | |
S.Darnold | 687 | 0.121 | 0.151 | 0.127 | 50.90% | 70.2 | 66.4 | 3.9 | 8.7 | |
M.Stafford | 594 | 0.087 | 0.126 | 0.118 | 50.50% | 68 | 68.7 | -0.7 | 7.5 | |
J.Fields | 251 | 0.1 | 0.116 | 0.107 | 47.00% | 69.7 | 67.3 | 2.4 | 7.9 | |
B.Nix | 702 | 0.081 | 0.093 | 0.09 | 45.30% | 68.9 | 68.3 | 0.6 | 7.4 | |
G.Smith | 713 | 0.11 | 0.094 | 0.075 | 48.70% | 73.5 | 67.8 | 5.6 | 7.1 | |
K.Cousins | 524 | 0.084 | 0.094 | 0.065 | 49.20% | 69.3 | 68.4 | 1 | 7.7 | |
A.Rodgers | 679 | 0.059 | 0.079 | 0.057 | 44.30% | 64.8 | 67.4 | -2.6 | 6.8 | |
T.Lawrence | 334 | 0.06 | 0.058 | 0.054 | 45.50% | 63.2 | 64.2 | -1 | 9.3 | |
M.Rudolph | 279 | 0.071 | 0.07 | 0.049 | 49.50% | 68.2 | 68 | 0.2 | 7.5 | |
J.Flacco | 291 | 0.08 | 0.082 | 0.049 | 47.40% | 66.9 | 65.9 | 1.1 | 8.9 | |
R.Wilson | 416 | 0.084 | 0.041 | 0.019 | 43.30% | 69.9 | 65.5 | 4.5 | 7.8 | |
D.Prescott | 341 | 0.05 | 0.028 | 0.018 | 44.30% | 66.8 | 67.6 | -0.9 | 7.9 | |
B.Young | 475 | 0.054 | 0.015 | 0.008 | 41.90% | 65.2 | 64.5 | 0.7 | 8.7 | |
M.Jones | 315 | 0.044 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 43.50% | 68.4 | 68.9 | -0.5 | 7.6 | |
D.Maye | 459 | 0.067 | 0.018 | -0.007 | 47.50% | 69.9 | 67 | 2.8 | 7.6 | |
C.Stroud | 656 | 0.036 | 0.001 | -0.007 | 42.40% | 66 | 67.7 | -1.7 | 8.2 | |
A.O’Connell | 284 | 0.023 | -0.006 | -0.01 | 45.40% | 66.4 | 70 | -3.6 | 7.8 | |
J.Winston | 354 | 0.047 | 0.035 | -0.016 | 44.90% | 62.8 | 64.6 | -1.8 | 9.1 | |
D.Jones | 450 | 0.053 | 0 | -0.02 | 46.20% | 68.1 | 66.7 | 1.5 | 7.5 | |
C.Williams | 750 | 0.039 | -0.017 | -0.026 | 41.60% | 67.2 | 67.3 | -0.1 | 7.9 | |
A.Richardson | 372 | -0.025 | -0.035 | -0.051 | 40.60% | 50.6 | 61.5 | -10.9 | 12.3 | |
C.Rush | 362 | -0.013 | -0.049 | -0.082 | 42.00% | 61.7 | 69.8 | -8.1 | 6.9 | |
G.Minshew II | 370 | 0.033 | -0.056 | -0.113 | 45.40% | 72.2 | 71.7 | 0.5 | 6.2 | |
D.Lock | 217 | -0.006 | -0.076 | -0.141 | 42.40% | 61.8 | 67.9 | -6.1 | 6.6 | |
J.Brissett | 202 | 0.008 | -0.141 | -0.157 | 41.60% | 63.3 | 66.2 | -2.9 | 6.4 | |
W.Levis | 403 | 0.022 | -0.115 | -0.173 | 38.20% | 65.1 | 65.5 | -0.4 | 9 | |
S.Rattler | 285 | -0.025 | -0.191 | -0.219 | 38.90% | 61 | 70.1 | -9.1 | 7.7 | |
D.Watson | 298 | 0.014 | -0.222 | -0.233 | 34.60% | 65.2 | 67.5 | -2.2 | 7.2 |
Wilson was also superior to all of the Giants’ quarterbacks in touchdown percentage, interception rate, passer rating, yards per attempt, yards per completion (by 2 full yards) and net yards per pass attempt.
Wilson and his infamous “moon ball” are also in play. On passes of more than 20 yards, Wilson led the NFL in completion percentage (54%) and passer rating (97.3). While Wilson completed 27 of 50 such throws, Jones completed just 8 of 31 (25.8%), 37th in the NFL. Lock completed 4 of 23, a 17.4% completion rate that placed him last among 42 qualifiers.
GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll have gone all-in on the idea that quarterback play has been the biggest deficiency on an offense that was 30th in scoring in 2023 and 31st in 2024 in a 32-team league. The quarterback change is the only significant personnel move made on the offensive side of the ball.
Could the level of quarterback play Wilson provided in 2024 have turned a three-win season into a six- or seven-win season? Perhaps.
More importantly, against a brutal schedule considered the most difficult in the league, can the level of play Wilson is capable of providing help the Giants avoid a repeat of 2024? That, of course, is to be determined.
If it can’t, the Giants’ future at the position could start sooner rather than later.
Long term
This one should be obvious. The Giants are in the best long-term position at quarterback they have been in since they drafted Jones, because they now finally have a long-awaited long-term option other than Jones.
Nobody knows what the future holds for Jaxson Dart. Maybe he will be the answer. Maybe the Giants will regret not drafting J.J. McCarthy last year. Maybe they will regret not waiting for Garrett Nussmeier or Arch Manning next year.
I am not going to make a prediction about Dart’s future or offer deep analysis here. You can check the podcasts below for some of that. The simple fact that he is in place is a step in the right direction for the Giants.
More coverage
Position-by-position looks at the defense are upcoming.