49ers @ Vikings: Keys to the Game

How the Vikings can beat the 49ers

The Minnesota Vikings host the San Francisco 49ers in a big test for the home team. The 49ers have not won in Minnesota for over thirty years and the Vikings are hoping to extend that streak with another upset over the defending NFC champions.

Keys to the Game

For the Vikings to win, they need to play well in a few key areas.

Turnovers

Both the 49ers and Vikings results are highly leveraged with turnovers. In the Kevin O’Connell era, the Vikings have not lost when winning or tying in the turnover battle. For the 49ers, they haven’t won a game since 2021 when losing the turnover battle. The Vikings won the turnover battle last year, and that may well have been decisive.

Brian Flores vs. Kyle Shanahan

There are plenty of important individual matchups when the 9ers have the ball, but the most important one may be between Brian Flores and Kyle Shanahan.

Shanahan is used to dictating the terms of engagement with opposing defenses with the multiple weapons at his disposal and the presnap motions and other facets of his scheme. That helps Brock Purdy with his processing and progressions, and makes it easier for him to deliver the ball on time.

But Brian Flores will likely put a monkey wrench to that well-oiled machine with his mega-packages and zero-blitz looks that could overload either the 9ers protection call or receivers with max coverage. In any case, Flores’ schematic approach will make it more difficult for the 49ers to dictate the terms of engagement and make it more difficult for Brock Purdy to process. To the extent that results in stalled drives and/or turnovers for the 49ers offense, that could be key in deciding the outcome.

Sam Darnold vs. the 49ers Defense

Darnold is facing a defense he knows well in terms of the players from last season, although the 9ers have a new defensive coordinator in Nick Sorensen. The 49ers defenders also know Darnold from practicing against him last season too.

The 9ers have a top defensive unit that will test Darnold and Kevin O’Connell with their solid roster at every level. All eyes will be on Darnold and whether he can step up against a top team. How well he plays will have a big impact on opinion regarding the Vikings’ prospects the rest of the season. A solid game could turn the preseason pessimism upside down.

Matching Physicality

Kevin O’Connell incorporated a more physical off-season practice regime for the Vikings this season, in an attempt to increase their physicality. The 49ers have been one of the more physical teams under Kyle Shanahan, so this should be a good test for the Vikings in that regard as well.

Keep an eye on the battle in the trenches as a key determinant of the outcome of this game as well.

PFF Grade Matchups

Lastly, below are the PFF projected starting lineups for each team along with their season grades based on week one performance. These are 11 personnel vs. nickel defense.

Bottom Line

The Vikings are 4.5 point home underdogs today against the 49ers. The line has moved from 6.5 points a week ago to 5.5 points earlier this week to 4.5 points in the last day or so.