NFC Schedule Insights

NFC North, Primetime, Teams with Biggest SOS Changes

Beyond the Minnesota Vikings schedule for the upcoming season, which I discussed in this piece, there are several interesting tidbits about the NFL schedule and particularly how it relates to the NFC and the NFC North.

Let’s take a closer look.

Primetime/Stand-Alone Games

The league makes some calculated decisions when it picks which teams play in primetime or stand-alone games. Those decisions largely come down to ratings, as each network that pays big bucks to air the games want a good return on investment and the league also wants to drive viewership and increase its already dominant share when it comes to sports broadcasting.

That translates into the league wanting to showcase the best teams, the best players, and/or the best matchups to drive viewership.

This season five of the six teams with the most standalone/primetime games are in the NFC. They include the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, who each have eight, followed by the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions who each have seven. The Super Bowl champion Eagles have six, and no other NFC team has more than five. The only AFC team with seven or more standalone games is the Chiefs, with eight.

Looking at the teams with the most standalone games in the NFC, they’re the top three teams in the NFC North and NFC East last season. All were playoff teams last season except the Cowboys. The league may be betting on the Cowboys having a better season this year, which is possible given new coaching and the return of Dak Prescott, but clearly the league is deciding to feature games involving the best teams in the two best divisions in the league.

All of the teams with the most standalone games in the NFC also had top ten offenses last year in points scored, except the Cowboys who may be reasonably expected to improve with Dak Prescott back and the addition of George Pickens. And scoring drives ratings.

With top offenses also comes marquee players and there are plenty among these six teams.

Lastly, the six teams with the most standalone games in the NFC didn’t produce many blowouts when playing one another- the Cowboys being the only exception as they were blown out twice by the Lions and Eagles. And close games is another key factor in driving ratings. About half of these standalone games are these six teams playing each other.

But clearly the league believes that these six teams will be playoff competitive late into the season and produce some of the more entertaining and competitive games, otherwise they wouldn’t have given them as many standalone games.

NFC North Schedule Insights

Not only do the Vikings have a tougher schedule this year, so does every team in the NFC North. Each team in the NFC North has one of the top ten toughest schedules, ranging from the Lions with the 3rd toughest to the Vikings with the 5th toughest, to the Bears with the 7th toughest, and the Packers with the 10th toughest. There isn’t much difference from the Vikings to the Packers, but the Lions schedule is notably tough.

Detroit Lions Schedule Insights

Here is the Lions’ road schedule this season:

• at Green Bay
• at Baltimore
• at Cincinnati
• at Kansas City
• at Washington
• at Philadelphia
• at LA Rams
• at Minnesota
• at Chicago

That’s only two road games against non-playoff teams last season, and Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back this season and is likely to be tough too. Even playing in Chicago in the early January deep freeze is no picnic.

The Lions also have by far the toughest schedule in the league over the first 11 weeks:

The Lions, back to health after losing the NFL demolition derby last season, should be tough but the big question is what impact two new coordinators and play callers will have on their season. If they’re slow out of the gate, or even just not strong out of the gate, they could find themselves trying to dig out of a hole later in the season.

Chicago Bears Schedule Insight

The Bears have the second-toughest schedule through the first eleven weeks, and that could compromise new head coach Ben Johnson’s effort at turning the franchise around. The Bears lost ten of their last eleven games last season- ten straight before beating the Packers in a meaningless week 18 game.

The Bears start against the Vikings, then at Detroit, Dallas, at Las Vegas, then an early bye week. They could be 0-4 going into their bye week, although the Raiders aren’t expected to be all that good. Still, their next four games are at Washington, New Orleans, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati. I see maybe one win there against the Saints. Then a home game against the Giants as a brief reprieve, followed by at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, at Green Bay.

At some point, whether 1-3, 2-6, or 3-9 I expect the Bears to begin folding up shop. In theory the Bears should be better this season, but that’s offset by having a tougher schedule.

Green Bay Packers Schedule Insight

The Packers start with a relatively easy schedule and an early week five bye, but they still face Detroit and Washington and at Dallas in their first four games. But the real problem for the Packers is that starting week ten, well after their bye week, they face only division opponents or playoff teams to finish the season, the one exception a week 11 game at the Giants. And the playoff teams they face are Philadelphia, at Denver, and Baltimore. That’s a tough nine-week stretch.

The Packers were 11-6 last season but 1-5 in the division. They went 8-0 against the AFC South and NFC West, including a win over a depleted Rams team and a Seahawks team that lost Geno Smith halfway through the game. They also beat the Bears once, the Saints and Dolphins.

My point is that the Packers only beat one reasonably healthy playoff team last season and they face a tougher slate of non-division opponents this season that could result in a sub-.500 season if they don’t do better within the division.

Bottom Line on the NFC North

The NFC North may be the best division top to bottom this season, but I think 11 wins will win the division. That’s simply a reflection of a tougher slate of opponents this season.

NFC East also has a Tough Slate

The NFC East has a much tougher schedule this season compared to last season. They face the NFC North and the AFC West. For example, the Commanders had the easiest schedule in the league last season but face the 19th toughest this season. Similarly, the Eagles had the fourth easiest schedule last season but have the fourth toughest this season. That could mean that 11 wins may be enough to win the NFC East this season too.

NFC West has the Easiest Slate in the Conference

On the other hand, the NFC West faces the two worst divisions in the AFC and NFC South this season. That means the NFC West could fare a lot better in the win column than the rest of the divisions in the NFC this season.

The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league at this point after facing the 5th toughest schedule last season. Arizona and Seattle also have much easier schedules this season. The Rams didn’t benefit as much but remain very much a playoff contender. That means it could be tougher for teams in the NFC East and NFC North to land a wildcard spot.

Strength of Schedule Differential from 2024 to 2025