Thoughts on the Vikings’ 2025-26 Schedule

The NFL has released its 2025-26 schedule and has chosen to highlight the Minnesota Vikings with seven primetime/stand-alone games this season, the second-most of any team. In his most recent press conference, Vikings’ quarterback J.J. McCarthy said he feels most comfortable when the lights are brightest and the stage is the biggest, so he’ll get plenty of opportunities under those conditions during the regular season, including four of his first five games.

Every game in the NFL can be considered a tough matchup as the ‘any given Sunday’ mantra often holds true. But objectively this is a much tougher schedule for the Vikings than last year. Mainly that’s because they’re playing the AFC North instead of the AFC South and the NFC East instead of a weaker NFC West last year. Seven of the Vikings’ 14 wins last season came against divisions they don’t play this year.

There just aren’t a lot of “easy” games on the Vikings’ schedule. The Browns in London and the Giants on the road in December are the only two non-division games against teams unlikely to contend for the playoffs this year. It’s better to face weaker teams on the road and save home field advantage for tougher matchups, so having both of those games technically road games is fortunate for the Vikings.

The other thing for the Vikings is that while their schedule is tougher than last season, the same is true for every team in the NFC North. The Lions face the Commanders, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs on the road outdoors, for example.

The betting market suggests a 9-win season for the Vikings at the moment.

Looking overall at the Vikings’ schedule below, the easy part of the schedule comes before their week six bye. The Vikings have a legitimate shot at being 5-0 going into their bye week and could be favored to win all of those games. The Bengals stand out as the most difficult of the pre-bye-week games, and the only game against a team with a top quarterback.

The Vikings have the advantage in both games overseas, as these are “home” games for the Steelers and Browns, but at a neutral site which favors the Vikings over normal road games, which could’ve been cold weather games in December in both cases.

But the four games after the week six bye week are easily the toughest stretch of the Vikings’ schedule. Three legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the Eagles, Lions, and Ravens and another playoff contender in the LA Chargers. If the Vikings can win all four of those games, they would prove they can win it all.

But the Vikings’ schedule doesn’t really get much easier after week ten either. The Bears at home and the Giants on the road are the two easier games, but even the Bears is still a division game and likely to be close and hard fought. The Packers, at Seattle, Washington and Dallas is no picnic. And then the Lions and Packers to finish the regular season.

Any way you slice it, it’s a beast of a schedule.

The Vikings also have a rest disadvantage week nine against the Lions, week ten against the Ravens, and week 15 against the Cowboys, as all three of those teams play on Thursday night the week before. And while the Vikings have the rest advantage coming off their bye week against the Eagles, the Eagles have a mini-bye week after a Thursday night game so the Vikings’ rest advantage that week is mitigated.

The Vikings travel schedule isn’t too bad. The two games overseas are effectively one for travel purposes as the Vikings will remain in the British Isles in-between games. They have three trips to the coast- LA, Seattle, and New Jersey- but while the trip to LA is on a short week for a Thursday night game, overall the travel is not a big issue or a disadvantage. There also is no road stretch longer than two games, which is good.

Defensively, the Vikings have eleven games against teams with a top 13 or better defense last season in points allowed, but only five against teams with bottom 12 defenses last season. Fortunately for J.J. McCarthy, three of those (Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Cleveland) come in his first five games, which may be helpful in his early development.

Lastly, while the Vikings face only three elite quarterbacks in Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels, they face a lot of quarterbacks in the next tier, including Jarod Goff, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. Guys like Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Sam Darnold could potentially be dangerous too.

The Schedule

Week 1: at Chicago Bears (MNF)

The Vikings open their season at Soldier Field in primetime Monday Night Football. It’s always better playing at Chicago in September rather than December so that is fortunate for the Vikings. This will be a faceoff of two of the top QBs from the 2024 draft in Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy. It will also be former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s debut as a head coach. And of course it is a division game.

The inevitable comparison between Williams and McCarthy won’t be a fair one as it will be McCarthy’s first game and Williams’ 18th, but if McCarthy looks the better of the two the fear and loathing among the Chicago faithful could ramp up early.

Early games each season are more unpredictable as teams roll out their new plays and schemes, some start faster than others, and with new players that can be hit or miss and are learning a new system, etc. That is even more so with a new coaching staff, as the Bears have this season.

This game will be a tone-setter for the Vikings. A win will build confidence, especially with a young QB at the helm, while a loss will cast a cloud over a tough season ahead.

Bears are early 1.5-point favorites.

Week 2: Atlanta Falcons (SNF)

Another 2024 draft top QB matchup with McCarthy going up against Michael Penix this time. This is a very winnable game for the Vikings, but also a bit of a tester. The expectation is for a Vikings’ win, so falling short would take the wind out of the Vikings’ sails. Having the home opener on Sunday Night Football should provide an electric atmosphere for J.J. McCarthy and Company.

Vikings are early 4.5-point favorites.

Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals

This Bengals matchup at home could be a bit like the 49ers game early last season. This is the first team on the Vikings’ schedule that is a legitimate playoff contender, so this is a bit of an early measuring stick for the Vikings’ post-season hopes and overall strength of the team. The Bengals are far from a complete team, but they’ve got elite playmakers offensively in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Vikings are early 1.5-point favorites.

Overall, these first three games present a reasonable ramp-up opportunity for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings overall.

Week 4: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin)

These back-to-back games overseas represent a scheduling advantage for the Vikings. They are both ‘home’ games for the Vikings’ opponents, but at a neutral site instead of playing in Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the winter elements, which could’ve been the case. The Vikings are also undefeated outside the US, so they know how to deal with the travel and time change issues. This is only the Steelers’ second game overseas, so they may have more difficulty making those adjustments.

The Steelers are always a tough team to play against, but in this instance not particularly talented where it matters most. They do have a fearsome defensive front led by T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward, but the Vikings have the offensive line to handle that challenge. The Vikings are early 1.5-point favorites.

Week 5: at Cleveland Browns (London)

The Vikings also have the advantage over the Browns in London because they will have already made the adjustments and have only a short trip from Dublin to London in advance of the game. The Browns are up there with the Giants as the least talented team on the Vikings’ schedule this season, so this should be a game the Vikings win easily. They are early 6.5-point favorites.

Week 6: BYE

Once again the Vikings have an early bye week, which is less than ideal as it leaves them with a block of three months of mostly tough matchups without a break before the playoffs, but it’s not the end of the world either. Sometimes having an early bye week can help the coaching staff straighten some things out earlier on that can be helpful too.

This will be especially important for a young quarterback in J.J. McCarthy to review his early performance and look for areas to improve. Doing so earlier in the season, particularly if he’s struggling, could be better than having a later bye week.

Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles

The good thing about the Vikings’ week six bye is that it gives them a week to rest up for the Super Bowl champion Eagles followed on Thursday night with a road game in LA. Overall, if the Vikings sweep their pre-bye-week games, this four-game stretch after their bye-week will preview just how far the Vikings could go in the post-season. The Eagles, Lions, and Ravens are all legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and the Chargers are at least playoff contenders. This is easily the most difficult stretch of the Vikings’ schedule.

The Eagles have a mini-bye in front of this game, as they play on Thursday night in week six, so the Vikings’ rest advantage is mitigated.

But the Vikings also have home field advantage and have been tough against the run the last two seasons, so they could match up relatively well against the Eagles, especially having beefed up their trenches this off-season.

Eagles are early 3-point favorites.

Week 8: at Los Angeles Chargers (TNF)

Thursday night games on the road are never welcome, and the Vikings didn’t fare particularly well with a mid-season two-game stretch against a tough opponent at home in the Lions followed by a Thursday night game in LA (against the Rams). The Chargers are improving under Jim Harbaugh, but the Vikings have the better roster and good matchups at wide receiver vs. the Chargers’ cornerbacks.

Chargers are early 3-point favorites.

Week 9: at Detroit Lions

The Lions have their bye week ahead of this matchup, so even though the Vikings will have a mini-bye ahead of this game, the Lions will have the rest advantage.

The Vikings are in better shape defensively and in the trenches to dethrone the Lions for the division crown, and it’s an open question whether the Lions will be as good with two new coordinators, but any way you slice it both Lions games are likely to be key in determining the NFC North division champion.

Lions are early 4.5-point favorites.

Week 10: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have a mini-bye ahead of this game, having played on Thursday night on week nine. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens infamously didn’t have an answer for Brian Flores’ zero-blitz a few years ago, when Flores ran it thirty times. But the Vikings will need to stop the run first, as between King Henry and Lamar the Ravens have a potent ground game.

Defensively, the Ravens don’t have any real weak links, so the Vikings will earn their points.

Ravens are early 3.5-point favorites.

Week 11: Chicago Bears

The second Bears matchup, while still likely to be a tough and close fought game, is also a bit of a spacer game between two tough four-game stretches. Vikings need to take care of business here.

Vikings are early 2.5-point favorites.

Week 12: at Green Bay Packers

Weather shouldn’t be an issue at this point in the season in Green Bay, and the Vikings have won the last couple at Lambeau Field and swept the Packers last season. I don’t know that much has changed for the Packers in the off-season to move the needle for them. This is a winnable game for the Vikings and of the kind they need to win if they’re going to make the postseason and make any noise.

Packers are early 3.5-point favorites.

Week 13: at Seattle Seahawks

The Sam Darnold reunion game. Playing in Seattle is always a tough venue for the road team, but the Vikings were able to come away with a victory there last season. It will be interesting to see what kind of season Darnold has there, but the Seahawks are still building and the Vikings should be a step ahead of them.

Seahawks are early 1.5-point favorites.

Week 14: Washington Commanders

This is the last of the 2024 draft top quarterback faceoffs, with McCarthy dueling against OROY Jayden Daniels. Daniels skyrocketed to the top tier over the course of his rookie year, something McCarthy is hoping to do this season. The Commanders are solid on offense but still a work in progress defensively.

Commanders are early 1.5-point favorites.

Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)

Dallas also has a mini-bye week ahead of this game, playing on Thursday night week 14.

The Cowboys should be better this season, with Dak Prescott back healthy and the addition of George Pickens, but the Cowboys are going through another overahaul of their coaching staff with a new head coach and coordinators. They didn’t do much to improve their defense in free agency or the draft, which ranked 31st last season, so there is still a lot to be done.

Vikings are early 1.5-point favorites.

Week 16: at New York Giants

The Giants are rolling with Russell Wilson but at some point may look to rookie Jaxson Dart, but either way their offense is mediocre at best. They’ve built a formidable defensive front with Dexter Lawrence, Abdul Carter, and Brian Burns, but beyond that they’re still not there yet. Weather could be a factor in this game, but anything short of a comfortable win here would be disappointing.

My guess is that the Giants will have been eliminated from playoff contention at this point and so may opt to give Jaxson Dart some starts.

Vikings are early 2.5-point favorites.

Week 17: Detroit Lions (Christmas)

These last two division games could very well decide the division title. The Lions should be tough, but this is the team the Vikings need to beat to win the division. It’s nice that both of these games are at home.

Lions are early 2.5-point favorites.

Week 18: Green Bay Packers

I’d be surprised if the Packers were playing for the division title at this point but might possibly be playing for a wild card spot. They might also be eliminated from the postseason at this point. What the Packers situation is may well factor into their motivation in this game. My guess is that this will be a must-win game for the Vikings from either a division or wild card perspective.

Packers are early 1.5-point favorites.

Complete Vikings Schedule with Dates, Times, Media Coverage

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Bottom Line

This is a tough schedule for the Vikings with only a couple of games against potentially easier opponents in the Browns and Giants. For the Vikings to have any chance at the postseason, J.J. McCarthy needs to have one of the best seasons for a young quarterback just starting his career, which is what is assumed going through the schedule above. If he has only an average year or worse, the Vikings aren’t likely to make the postseason or eclipse the .500 mark.

I did a piece recently on expectations for J.J. McCarthy, given his situation with the Vikings and comparing them to other young quarterbacks in good situations in their first year as a starter, and the average results are something close to what Sam Darnold accomplished last season. I doubt the Vikings win 14 games again even if McCarthy does as well as Darnold last season, simply because the Vikings’ schedule is that much harder, but if he is able to match Darnold’s performance or better, the Vikings should be competing for a division title at the end of the season with a chance to do some damage in the playoffs.

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