The AP staff (and our readers) pick the Chiefs-Bengals game

Let’s see what AP staffers (and readers) think about Sunday’s game between Kansas City and Cincinnati.

In Week 1, Arrowhead Pride contributors got off to a record-setting start, turning in the best set of game picks we’ve ever made. Our combined prediction was for the Kansas City Chiefs to collect a 27-21 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, which had only two points of error from the 27-20 final. Our previous best guess was for last season’s Divisional round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills, when our 24-21 prediction was six points removed from the 27-24 final.

62% of our readers (compared to 75% of our staffers) called for a close Kansas City win. 11% thought Baltimore would win the AFC Championship rematch.

In Week 2, the Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 5.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

For Cincinnati, this game couldn’t have come at a worse time. Even though this matchup has had plenty of juice in recent years, the current edition of the Bengals doesn’t match up with the Chiefs very well. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is injured — and wideout Ja’Marr Chase just came back; they don’t have the wide receiver advantage they’ve usually had. The defense is struggling as it exchanges departed veterans for young players. The absences of DJ Reader and Jessie Bates — who have been game-changers against the Chiefs — make it much harder for Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo game-plan against Kansas City. Later in the season, this might be a closer game — but on Sunday, I expect an easy Chiefs win.

Chiefs 31, Bengals 20

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

Four of the last five games between these teams (two of them for the AFC Championship) have been decided by three points — and the Bengals have won three of them. But none of those matchups were played earlier than Week 13. During Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor’s tenure, the Bengals are 1-10 during the first two weeks of the season. During that same period, the Chiefs are 9-2 during Weeks 1 and 2. Just the same, this is the NFL. I don’t think Cincinnati is just going to roll over.

Chiefs 31, Bengals 21

Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

On Sunday, the Chiefs will aim to improve to 2-0 — while the Bengals will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start for the fifth time in six seasons. Cincinnati will be battling with urgency. The rivalry between these teams is well-established — and that bad blood only heightens the intensity of this matchup. We should expect another hard-fought, emotional game. But based on their Week 1 performances, the Chiefs appear more polished on both sides of the ball. With a sharper offense (and a defense that can capitalize on mistakes), Kansas City has the edge.

Chiefs 31, Bengals 24

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

The Chiefs’ Week 1 win would have been much more comfortable if the offense had finished more drives and the defense had more energy left at the end of the game. Still, the defense ultimately played well. I think that will continue against a Cincinnati offense that struggled in Week 1 — and isn’t fully healthy. Every week, quarterback Patrick Mahomes (and the offense) will only get better and more efficient. Then if you mix in some extra intensity from the rivalry with the Bengals, I see a complete Chiefs victory.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 17

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

In this game, the biggest question mark is whether Kansas City’s rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia will need additional help to hold down the edge against Cincinnati pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. If he keep Mahomes upright by himself, I don’t think this de-clawed (and shell-shocked) version of the Bengals has the talent to run with the Chiefs. Wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are a nightmare for a good defense — let alone a pile of JAGs. Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Burrow looks like he’s seeing ghosts (and hearing footsteps) every time he drops back to pass. So on Sunday, expect things to go from bad to worse for Burrow. Cincinnati is still missing Tee Higgins, while Ja’Marr Chase is the poster boy for unwanted distractions. If the NFL had a Mercy Rule, it would be in effect on Sunday.

Chiefs 38, Bengals 10

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

After an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots, the Bengals are frightening for a simple reason: no NFL team has more riding on Week 2 than they do. Unfortunately for them, the problems that plagued Cincinnati a week ago — an inept run defense and a lack of reliable offensive weapons — generally aren’t issues that can be fixed quickly. The Chiefs will likely disappoint millions of fantasy players who added Xavier Worthy to their rosters during the last week. While the rookie will still be in the game plan, the 170 rushing yards the Bengals allowed to New England suggest the Chiefs will want to attack Cincinnati on the ground. Running back Isiah Pacheco should be given a chance to pick off where he left off in December, when he had a career-best 130 rushing yards in his team’s most recent victory over the Bengals. And don’t forget that former Cincinnati back Samaje Perine will also be more integrated into the offense — hopefully with an ax to grind against his former team. Expect the Chiefs to control this one from the start; they’ll want to avoid giving the Bengals’ offense any opportunity to find itself.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 13

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Bengals (and their fans) think this is their year; they’ve publicly said they expect to be the AFC’s favorite. There’s an obvious problem with that: the Chiefs are still here — and might be better than ever. While they aren’t division rivals, these teams don’t like each other; they tend to have games just as epic as the bulletin board material Bengals players put out. It’d be logical to anticipate this game will come down to the wire — but given what we saw from each team in Week 1, I’ll pick the Chiefs by double digits. The new-look Kansas City offense will leave the Cincinnati defense with no good answers — I think this could be a big game for both Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice — and I believe defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have some pressure dialed up for Joe Burrow.

Chiefs 31, Bengals 20

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

Looking back, it’s odd to describe the Chiefs’ opening-night victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Kansas City played a game that was a few plays away from a blowout — and also, somehow, a few plays away from a loss. 10 days later, the Chiefs meet the Bengals. While they may not necessarily be the home team’s most-hated rival, the Chiefs are indeed theirs. A few years ago, we would have expected Sunday’s matchup would be an instant classic — but it won’t be. Regardless of what Joe Burrow says, I don’t think he is healthy — and when your quarterback is less than 100%, it’s very difficult to beat Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. I also think Cincinnati right tackle Trent Brown will be a liability that Steve Spagnuolo will exploit. Isiah Pacheco is better than he was last year. He’ll be up against a Bengals’ run defense that gave up 120 yards against Rhamondre Stephenson in Week 1. It’s all just too much — and I think the only reason some might predict this to be close is the opponent’s name. In reality, Kansas City wins comfortably.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 14

What do you think?

Four contributors — Nate Christensen, John Dixon, Jared Sapp and Pete Sweeney — each had only six points of error on their Week 1 predictions, which ranged from 24-20 to 30-20. The other four staffers tied with eight points of error on their picks.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team points and away team points are added together. As an example, let’s say a prediction calls for the Chiefs to win 17-10, but they win 16-10. There would be two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Chiefs’ score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs had lost the game 17-10, there would be 21 points of error: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7), the Chiefs’ score missed by 7 and the opponent’s score was off by 7.